The Top14 who cares who wins?

The Top 14 – ‘Who cares who wins?’

 

The Top14’s gilded juggernaut finally reaches its terminus in the palatial Stade de France on Saturday. The season that began in the heat of August comes to a halt in mid-June, ten months later. For the players it has been nearly a year of battles of attrition, survival and no doubt big paydays. The final will be played in a febrile partisan atmosphere generated by two sets of the most passionate fans in French rugby. Yet their pleasure must be tempered by the fare that they have had to watch through this interminable season. The semi-finals that were played last weekend in a wonderful stadium in Bordeaux were often turgid, unimaginative and dominated by forwards trying to physically overpower each other before the game would burst into life. The élan of French rugby is not dead but much of the play in the Top14 is inhibited by the absolute need to avoid losing, avoid relegation and losing the vital transfusion of money that comes from the enormous TV deal the Top14 enjoys.

The first semi-final between Toulouse and La Rochelle at least had the likes of Dupont and Koble on the field. Both of these are players that can bring spectators to their feet in an instant, a constant threat to the opposition, for that ability they are destined to be marked closely. At times Toulouse were able to play with shackles off; there were some sublime offloads, thoughtful lines of support and when required the backs passed the ball superbly. But, sadly at times the game slowed down, as both packs appeared happy to knock each other senseless. Here though La Rochelle got little change out of a determined and motivated Toulouse pack of forwards. Toulouse fronted up and when La Rochelle did move the ball wide they found the Toulouse scramble defence committed and clever. The score of 20-6 to Toulouse was a fair reflection of Toulouse’s dominance but it was a game for the connoisseurs, there was not much to set the heart racing and Toulouse won comfortably.

Clermont played Lyon the next day at the same venue on a sunny afternoon. The atmosphere was superb with both sets of fans doing their best to make it a thunderous and passionate occasion and the players did their best to live up to the fans’ expectations. There was as to be expected a great deal of endeavour, bravery but there were only a few moments that brought the crowd to its feet. Kiwis George Moala and Isaia Toeava along with the accurate kicking of Greg Laidlaw saw Clermont over the line.

This was after a period of strength sapping as the packs faced up to each other and attempted to bulldoze their way through this was to  last for twenty minutes, before a game of rugby was allowed to break out and Clermont showed that if they got the ball and a bit of space they had the pace to score tries.  Lyon responded by trying to tighten the game up even further but this led to penalties and a yellow card. This indiscipline was to let them down badly as Clermont took full advantage of their extra man. Clermont have enjoyed a good season, with an European trophy already in the cabinet and if they get space to play they can be deadly and Fofana is beginning to look like he is finding some form.

It will be a heavyweight clash on Saturday both these sides deserve to be there and have shown they are the best two sides in the competition. But, the players are tired, smashed about by the limitations of the game teams are required to play. Where avoiding defeat inhibits players and owners respond by spending money not on local talent but by looking to the South Seas or Southern Hemisphere.

The players will not know what to look forward to more, the final or the final whistle!

 

 The blog rugbyghughes57 has been selected by our panelist as one of the Top 100 Rugby News Websites on the web. https://blog.feedspot.com/rugby_news/https://blog.feedspot.com/rugby_news/

 This is the most comprehensive list of Top 100 Rugby News Websites on the internet.

 

Lesons so far from the RWC u20's Argentina

Early lessons from the RWC u20’s in Argentina

 

As the RWC u20’s tournament thunders on producing its usual menu of exciting and fast matches, international coaches across the game will be watching the matches closely. In the midst of preparations for the World Cup in Japan this gives them a chance to not only scout for potential talent, but more significantly will be scrutinising how the games are being refereed. Here World Rugby will be trying out, under match conditions, the protocols and approaches they will be asking the referees to follow in Japan. It will be absolutely imperative in Japan that referees, assistants and TMO’s go about their jobs consistently and as much as possible avoiding controversy.

So far the referees in Argentina have been fulfilling their briefs meticulously, displaying much appreciated consistency and maintaining on-field discipline in an empathetic way without harming the spectacle of the game.

What has been obvious, so far, has been the referees’ high level of fitness and communication skills both with the players and their fellow officials. This can only have been achieved through diligent preparation. But, for the teams playing in Japan it means they will have little room to manoeuvre, to bend the rules or play consistently beyond the remit of the laws.

The offside line at the set piece has been refereed well, resulting in room for moves to work, allowing quick ball to be utilised creating both width and chances. The opposition realising they could be giving away cheap points if they stray offside has led to a more fluent game, and cutting off at source the euphemistic pundits’ favourite of ‘fantastic line speed’. At the breakdown the referees are all facing the defence, clearly showing the offside line and talking to the players, and if an offence is committed the referee is quick to signal and to communicate his decision. Perhaps, the next stage would be for the assistant referees to pay more attention to the actions of the wider defence but with the expeditious use of the kick ahead/pass defences are becoming more circumspect about committing themselves to early.

By consciously creating the space, curtailing deliberate offside play the players are revelling in the chance to offload, clever support lines and to try their luck by running from deep. High tackles, dangerous play and cynical play now carry a much higher risk and all offences are being summarily and correctly punished. As both England and Ireland have painfully discovered. Any player in Japan that tackles above the shoulder will know that they will be in trouble and the defence coaches will be working overtime on developing new techniques in the tackle. Additionally referees and their assistants are watching for the hits off the ball at rucks and mauls, the reckless use of shoulders rather than arms and avoiding players targeting vulnerable areas, such as the head and neck when players are competing for the ball.

All in all so far the U20’s have produced some superb running rugby, revelling in the chance to display their skills and talents. Much of this is down to the quality of the refereeing giving the players rooms and security to play. Clearly the players and coaches in Argentina have bought into this approach and have reacted positively to it. If the teams who play in Japan will do the same then there is every chance it could become one of the great World Cups.

 

Gallagher Premiership final....thoughts?

Saracens v Exeter Chiefs - ‘Great game for England?’

 

As the dust settles on the English rugby season and the players embark on a well-earned rest the epic encounter that these two sides provided as the climax to the Gallagher Premiership highlighted that these two sides were by far and away the two best in the competition, and they fully deserved the plaudits that came their way at the end of the match. It was a contest where both teams showed that they could play ‘optimistic rugby’, prepared to go for a ‘high risk high reward’ approach. But, was this game a good one for English rugby, or a great advert for the Gallagher Premiership?

There were many English internationals on view who played to an extremely high standard; Kruis, Itoje, Nowell and Armand for example. Critically though the game changers for both sides were not English. International rugby and particularly World Cups are won by small margins and it’s the players who can play on the ‘Edge of the Edge’ that make the difference. For Exeter the pulse of their superb effort came from the sharp prompting and decision making of their Australian scrum –half Nick White. It was his sniping and distribution that rattled the much vaunted Saracens’ defence leading them to having to make nearly 100 strength sapping tackles in the first half alone. Sarries made more mistakes in the first sixty minutes than they had made nearly all season, much of this could be directly attributed to the astute play of White. Scrum- half is a position that England are struggling with, and the roster of quality English scrum halves across the Premiership is very shallow. Perhaps, this is best illustrated by the notable contribution of Richard Wrigglesworth, 36, who is still in the England squad, when he came off the bench and through his thoughtful play facilitated the Saracens come back from a 27-16 deficit. He cannot realistically be called the future?

It could be argued that the player who made the critical difference to Saracens whose season long efforts for them have made the difference in winning the double is not English either. Namely, the Welsh talisman, Liam Williams who has enjoyed a stellar season and Warren Gatland must be hoping that Williams takes his form into the World Cup in Japan. It was his startling leap to seize Farrell’s thoughtful kick to the corner to score a wonderful try that turned the game. Perhaps equally impressive was Williams’ low key celebration. He was well aware of the significance of his try but that it could only be the catalyst to the necessary effort needed to win the game and overcome the Chiefs.

There can be no argument that the match had been a superb advert for the club game but as a barometer for England’s chances in Japan that is more doubtful. The pundit Matt Dawson’s assertion that it has markedly helped England’s confidence is at best hopeful, rather than definite. Indeed the match highlighted England’s lack of depth in crucial positions; Loose Head and Tight Head prop, Blind side flanker, Number 8, Scrum Half, Inside Centre and Full Back.

Surely the game did give Eddie Jones much to mull over; Goode at 15 for one or Armand as back row cover as another. At least worried England supporters can hope that he will be more flexible but, don’t hold your breath.

Will a Welsh region ever win the European Champions’ Cup?

Will a Welsh region ever win the European Champions’ Cup?

 

With the European finals in Edinburgh over the weekend again devoid of Welsh participation will one of the Welsh regions ever be good enough to win the European Champions’ Cup? In this season the Cardiff Blues and Dragons performed fitfully, and the Ospreys, despite a record breaking run in the group stage fell apart in the quarter final. The Scarlets, Wales’ sole representatives in the Champions’ Cup, recorded a notable victory over Toulon; otherwise they performed bravely but were ultimately outgunned rather than outclassed. Not since 2010 has a Welsh side won a European competition.

Each of the Welsh regions is populated by quality players, are there sufficient of them to sustain a tough European campaign as well as competing in a lengthy Pro12 season? The epithet ‘You can only control the controllable’ is most apt here, and that means that each regional team must have a strong enough squad to deal with the inevitable injuries, international calls and loss of form. The ability to recruit and retain a squad of high quality players brutally comes down to money. The Saracens bestride the European game at the moment and their financial power is amply illustrated by how they were able to replace the injured lock Kruis with the temporary signing of the giant  Australian international Will Skelton, this in addition to other high profile signings, the retention of highly paid players and the owner’s apparent willingness to underwrite significant losses for a period of time has brought great success domestically and now in  Europe. This appears to be the ethos and approach needed to win the tournament.

Munster and Leinster have this season regained their European credibility helped by huge crowds, big squads and the largesse of the IRFU. Clermont stand out in France for their integrity, boisterous loyal supporters and being able to employ 51 players so far this season has enabled them to battle successfully on two fronts. It has certainly worked and despite a huge injury list they are second in the Top14 and European cup finalists on Saturday. None of the Welsh regions compares in terms of player depth, funds or crowds to these teams.

The regions also suffer from being unable to attract high quality coaches and those currently plying their trade in Wales do not at present have the record to stand up to the scrutiny needed to win a European competition. The exception being the work of Wayne Pivac and his staff at the Scarlets, who if given time are building something special in west wales.

Lastly the impact of good fortune cannot be underestimated. Drawing an Italian side in the group tends to be a good start, the order of fixtures, injuries; the weather all plays a part. Because the aim in the group stages is to secure a home quarter final to be played at the teams’ home ground is critical, only 35% of the games at that stage of the competion have been won by the away side.

So for a Welsh region to win the tournament serious questions need to be asked, as there is no quick fix. The WRU, given the changes afoot for next season in the regional game, need to take the lead and act to make success in Europe a priority. Money would have to be spent on high quality recruitment and retention, the WRU would need to use its dual contract facility judiciously, coaches would need to be supported and lastly accept that a slice of good fortune would be needed.

 

 

 

 

Rugby coach the testing time, end of season run in.

Who’d be a Rugby Coach?

 

Given the ridiculous opprobrium heaped on Warren Gatland when he revealed the British and Irish Lions squad last week it does beg the question, ‘Who would want to be a rugby coach’, particularly at the pinnacle of the game. Sackings, political chicanery and leaving before being pushed are now part and parcel of the game. Certainly the financial recompense would be an inducement but the lack of job security, stress and public criticism has to be a consideration. Although, thankfully, no coach has talked about it being ‘his project’, it is clear that they all crave the chance to have sufficient time to be allowed to make a difference. But, the caveat appears to be that time is definitely finite and last season’s performance counts for very little if there isn’t a significant improvement, and do not rely on your contract.

Rugby coaches used to be developed from within clubs, learning their trade with the lower sides before being entrusted with the 1stXV. This was certainly the route to the top taken by the excellent Rob Baxter at Exeter Chiefs, but how many clubs are following that example? Around the game there now appears to be that a new coach is needed as soon as performance dips below expectations. These expectations might not be those of the supporters but more often than not the owners, benefactors or shareholders that decide that they have no choice, they simply have to react. The panacea appears to be to employ a coach from the all-conquering Southern Hemisphere and watch them magically weave a winning side. This has heralded the arrival of the ‘Super coach’, paid a huge salary, access to a large playing budget and the demand that training facilities are upgraded. Then there are the layers of specialist coaches; attack, defence, scrum, lineout and even an ‘exit’ coach and that is before the need for a Sports Science department and medical staff. Naturally for all that outlay investors are going to want to see a return. Coaches stand or fall based on the quality of their results, Mike Ford for one has suffered from that over the last year. Leicester, Bristol and Gloucester in the AVIVA have all made changes mid-season in their coaching staff in a desperate bid to improve results. Not all these situations were handled with the skill and empathy that the game likes to think it has. The Pro12 has seen two coaches move on so far this season at Edinburgh and Zebre. Other clubs, regions and provinces will wait and take stock at the end of the season when explanations for underachievement will be sought.

Rugby clubs are expensive to run and it is very rare to be able to turn a profit but the intertwining of money and sport is now an unwelcome but established fact. Success should not be down to money alone but across all of the European leagues it all too often does. For a long time Rugby has prided itself as very different to soccer. But, now it is much harder to see any difference; foreign players and coaches are omnipresent, vast TV deals for the Top14 and the AVIVA mean that they have moved ahead of most of the teams in the Pro12 and the game is now very much a business. Supporters can hark back to the good old days but if any club/region/province wants to do more than survive then investment will be needed.

This means that a rugby coach’s job security at the top level is not watertight. In Wales as the Pro12 season shudders to a climax the coaches and players of the Ospreys, Scarlets and the Blues all have something to play for both on and off the field. They will know that if things do not go well questions will be asked. In so many respects this is unfair when you consider the resources they are up against, and then case for investment in the regions becomes ever more urgent. The pressure is constant, relentless and all the coaches deserve to be given a break, some level of understanding but results will need to go their way.

By far the man with the hardest task is Kingsley Jones, at Newport Gwent Dragons as he takes what must be a deflated team to Edinburgh. He will be well aware of how uncertainty saps at the morale of a squad and with all of the speculation circling Rodney Parade it will extremely difficult to motivate the players in Scotland. On the other hand they know that they are playing for their futures wherever that may lie. Danny Wilson must be desperate to ensure that the Blues get 5 points against the hapless Zebre, to maintain the form they displayed in crushing the Ospreys and at last showing some much needed consistency. The team can still challenge for 6^th place in the table but realistically it’s more important to have some good form going into the Champions Cup playoffs. Pivac at the Scarlets has a formidable task in taking his team to Connacht. They will be emotionally up for this game, Pat Lam’s last home game in charge of the team and with their own European future to consider. But, the Scarlets despite the loss of the totemic James Davies at 7 will be confident of being able to do a job, and make it even harder for the Ospreys when they come to Parc y Scarlets next Saturday. Steve Tandy undoubtedly faces a severe examination of his coaching credentials as they face an Ulster team who will most definitely fancy their chances. Ospreys’ loss of form and meek surrender to the Blues will have been taxing Tandy and his team for the last two weeks as a season that carried the promise of glory has proven to be illusory. He must be hoping that on Saturday the Ospreys rediscover their confidence and abilities in an effort to seek redemption for the series of damaging defeats that team has endured. If they do not, and lose, the match the following week at the Scarlets becomes one, defining the team.

Futures might well be decided over the coming week, all coaches know that their tenure can come to an end following a run of bad results and they also know the frustration of once the whistle goes they can do very little to influence the outcome. It does make you wonder who’d be a Rugby Coach.

 

 

Hughes's Hunch Prediction European Cup Semi Final

April 22^nd 2017

 

European Championship Semi-Final

 

Munster vs Saracens at the AVIVA stadium Dublin

 

The potential for an European classic match is obvious, and often we are left disappointed but such is the form of both these sides the likelihood of this being a game to live up to the occasion is excellent.

 

As current European champions, Saracens will be arriving at the AVIVA stadium bristling with confidence and determined to defend their title. Against them stands the proud province of Munster, with its celebrated ‘Red Army’ of supporters, equally determined to deny them victory.

 

Galvanised by the sudden sad death of their coach Alex Foley Munster have had a magnificent season and play with passion and precision under the tutelage of 'Rassie' Erasmus the side’s Director of Rugby. He has produced a team capable of upsetting the Saracens. Munster couple a never say die attitude with the ability to mix their game up between the forwards and backs, grunting up the middle and throwing it wide when needed. Their driving maul to the purist is a thing of beauty, and Saracens will have to maintain their discipline. In Simon Zebo and CJ Stander they have players that when on song can change a game in an instant, and they are both enjoying a run of good form at present. But, the likely absence of Scrum Half Murray will hurt them and although Saracens have constantly said that they expect him to play Munster have prepared all week without him. Peter O’Mahony will lead his team and pack with his customary ferocity and his line out duel with Kruis and Itoje could well settle the game. His performance against Itoje in the 6 Nations will fill him with confidence.

 

On song as the Saracens were against the Glasgow Warriors they can be irresistible playing with a relentless verve that most sides struggle to live with never mind contain. With 6 British and Irish Lions in the side they will be brimming with confidence. The Vunipola brothers and Jamie George means that the defence of Munster will be sorely tested and out wide the likes of Ashton and Maitland running their usual sweet lines of support requires the Munster back row to be everywhere because the attacks will keep coming. If that was not enough, the Munster team will have to think about how to contain Farrell and Wrigglesworth who are two of the best game managers currently playing and they will do their best to boss the Munster team around.

 

It will be a close game and the side that not only takes their opportunities but holds their nerve will emerge victorious. There is a good chance that it will come down to goal-kicking and it is here through the imperious Farrell that Saracens possess the crucial difference.

 

 

Prediction

 

The heart would love Munster to win, they have been to a dark place this season, and have responded magnificently, but the head says that the Saracens will win by 3-6 points.

British and Irish Lions 2017- ‘Selection is always subjective’

British and Irish Lions 2017

 

‘Selection is always subjective’

 

After the smoke and mirrors, rumours and innuendo of the last 24 hours, the British and Irish Lions touring party has been announced at last and the speculation can end. The strength of interest in the Lions has been amply shown by the meltdown on social media that the announcement caused. Gatland and his coaching team have partly shown their hand but, until the group arrive in NZ intact, how they will play is not certain. The chosen team members now have to get through some of their most challenging games of the season with the various cup finals and league finales ahead. Everyone concerned will be crossing their fingers over the coming weeks that they emerge unscathed.

The appointment of Sam Warburton had been well trailed and, in most areas, welcomed. In Australia 2013, Warburton cut an impressive figure handicapping any attempts a hostile Australian media made to get the Australian public to turn on the tourists. The rabid NZ media will, no doubt, try their best to rattle him and the group but Warburton is a fine player and quality human being. Indeed, to most NZ parents he would their ideal choice as son-in-law, only just behind Richie Macaw. More pertinently, his form in the 6 Nations makes him a certain pick for the test side either at 6 or 7 and this versatility will augment the Lions test side. Becoming a Lions captain for a second time does not yet elevate Warburton to greatness, that is decided at the end of a career, but it is a supreme accolade and one that he is superbly equipped to succeed at again.

Much will be made over the omission of several players, Dylan Harley, Jamie Heaslip and several Scots are obvious but selection is not objective, it is a subjective exercise, and, inevitably, not everyone will agree. Gatland knows this and he will be judged by how his team plays. Players who have been left out should not be too aggrieved; Lions selection is not a right and it is certainly not based simply on your team’s performance. It is down to the qualities and playing skills of the individual player, how he will fit into the strategy and how will he react to being one of many superb players. Personality and a  positive supportive attitude will be vital; to be considered as elite means that a player has to be special, one that makes things happen rather than living off the efforts of his team mates and knows that the hard work starts now. Being selected is not enough to make you a Lion.

The selection does not show how the Lions will play; there are so many gifted players at Gatland’s disposal that he can choose his approach from a position of strength. The media will talk about ‘Warrenball’ as if it is a negative, on the other hand, what if it wins the series? It was ‘Warrenball’ that blew the Wallabies away in the third test where the Lions were relentless and irresistible; it is rugby played with pace, power and precision. Very much like the AB’s like to play. NZ will react pragmatically to the composition of the touring party as they will expect to win whoever has been picked. The first objective of a sell-out tour has already been achieved and their sole aim from now on will be to achieve a 3-0 series win. There is no-one coming to NZ that they fear. They respect the Lions, yes, but their expectation will be for a total victory.

When it comes down to the individual selections the choice of Kruis after such a long layoff could be a gamble but he is the best line-out caller in the 6 Nations and he adds real power to the scrum.  If he is fit, Launchbury will not start in the England team as Eddie Jones has shown. It probably came down to Lawes and Launchbury, and Lawes has massively improved his ball carrying while being considerably better at the line-out and restarts than Launchbury. Moriarty deserves his place on the plane; the quality of his performances could not be denied and his versatility will be critical on a tour where injuries are bound to happen. The omission of Dylan Hartley will take up some column inches tomorrow but his performance in the 6 Nations was disappointing and at no time did he look as good as any of the three players chosen ahead of him. George Ford, Finn Russell and Ringrose will get their chances again. They are not complete players yet, prone to errors and the occasional lapse in concentration, a weakness that would be ruthlessly highlighted in NZ. The Scots could complain about such paltry representation and argue that the team’s improvement in the 6 Nations deserved more recognition but the hammering at Twickenham exposed the lack of sustainable quality and lack of depth in a developing side.

So, after all the speculation can the Lions win? The answer is yes, as Gatland has said, ‘You wouldn’t get on the plane otherwise.’

The squad is packed with excellent players, the forwards will not shy away from the confrontation and the backs have pace to burn. The half backs can all bring something to the party and the competition between Webb and Murray at scrum half could well decide how the Lions will look to play. Murray box kicks and controls well but he was hustled out of his rhythm in Edinburgh and Cardiff .Webb is a real box of tricks, a constant threat that, if he controls his enthusiasm, can turn a game in an instant. His service is fast and the turn of pace he showed against the Irish was a revelation.  The Lions can win if they can match the AB’s physically and, provided they stick to their game plan and not be drawn into playing as NZ want, then they can snuff out what the AB’s thrive upon - loose ball and control where the game is played. The Lions will have to accept that the AB’s will score tries and they will be looking to run the ball when they are confident but they can be knocked out of their stride and that will be have been the key to Gatland’s selection. He wants players that will stand up to the men in black and never give up. Only time will tell if he has chosen the right men to do this.