RaboDirecrtPro12 Round 2 Predictions

Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh Rugby (Friday 7^th September K.O. 7.05 @ Cardiff Arms Park)

Cardiff’s hard fought victory in the wind and rain of Connacht was just the start Phil Davies’s team was hoping for. The scenes at the end of the game exemplified the hard work of pre-season and that it had begun to pay dividends. The team is clearly united, determined and much better organised than last season; this coupled with the team’s emotional return to their spiritual home of the Cardiff Arms Park will give them the needed momentum to take on and eventually subdue a brave Edinburgh side.

The Scot’s will come well prepared and with the two Cardiff old boys, Richie Rees and John Yapp, in their ranks fired up for the contest. Tim Visser will not care who he plays against of the Blues’ international wingers after last weeks hat trick he will be buzzing, and determined not to end up on the losing side once again. Edinburgh with Laidlaw to the fore will bring a clever game and some hard hitting forwards and this will make them worthy opponents. But the Blues have a well organised defence, a dogged back row and some real pace out wide. With the bulk of their internationals slated to return for this game this will bolster the team and enable them to deal comfortably with whatever Edinburgh can bring to the party; after a close game for an hour, the Cardiff Blues roared on by what is certain to be a large crowd, will win.

Prediction: Cardiff Blues by 10 points

Munster vs. Benetton Treviso (Friday 7^th September K.O. 8.00 @ Thomond Park)

Munster showed by their victory over Edinburgh that they mean business this season. The “Big Red Machine” has rediscovered its mojo. Howlett as skipper and the centre partnership of Laulala and Downey, have added real steel and guile to the Munster midfield and make them a much less predictable team. Playing at Thomond Park always gives the Munster team a boost and often succeeds in intimidating the opposition. Treviso will be no mugs and they showed last week against the Ospreys that they have the pack to stand up to most teams, but the physicality this Munster team will bring on Friday will be simply too much for them. The Treviso centres are not the most astute of defenders and they will be in for a torrid time without the benefit of conditions to hide behind. The pace and power of Munster will be too much for them; Munster will remember their surprise defeat at the Stadio Monigo last season and will be looking to avenge it.

Prediction: Munster by 15 points

Glasgow warriors vs. Llanelli Scarlets (Friday 7^th September K.O. 7.35 @ Scotstoun)

This could well be the match of the weekend. Glasgow is a formidable team and this will be their first competitive game at the Scotstoun stadium and after the combative defeat to Ulster last week they will be eager to get their season started. They will be in no mood to give the Scarlets easy points. Indiscipline cost them dearly and the senior players like Cuister and Kellock will have drummed into the warriors that they simply cannot do that on Friday or the Scarlets could cut them to pieces. Sean Lamont, an ex-scarlet will do his best to warn his new team mates of the formidable threats the Scarlets backs can pose. The Scarlets’ hammering of a weak Leinster side will have done them no favours for the trip to Glasgow and Townsend will ensure that his team is fired up for the game. But, the Scarlets will travel with confidence and real belief in their ability, on times they can be irresistible. North, Knoyle, Liam Williams et al bring a combination of pace, power and precision that can leave opponents grasping at thin air. They appear to be able to score tries at will. The Scarlets pack has been considerable strengthened on paper and this is the sort of game that can confirm or deny the reality of that assertion. There can be no doubt that if Glasgow denies the Scarlets a platform they will probably have enough to win a close game. But, there is an edge about the Scarlets, Simon Easterby has quickly emerged as a claver coach and they will travel to Scotland with realistic aspirations.

Prediction: A very close call, Glasgow Warriors by 3 points

Zebre vs. Connacht (Friday 7^th September K.O. 7.05 @ Stadio XXV Aprile)

Zebre will be desperate to make a statement following the heavy defeat to Newport Gwent Dragons last week. They want to show that they are made of sterner stuff than the Aironi team they replaced. The Italian RFU has laudably indicated that they want the Zebre team to be made up of Italian rugby players and not foreign imports. But, as can be seen by the fortunes of the national side it is not easy to set up a winning team. The harsh lessons of Rodney Parade can be used as a spur for this game but it will not be sufficient. Connacht will come to Italy smarting from their defeat to the Blues, well aware that they were the architects of their own demise and will see this match as a chance of redemption.

There can be no doubt that Zebre will give of their all in front of what promises to be good crowd in Parma but, Connacht will just have enough to beat them, if they can eradicate the errors that so marred their performance last Saturday. If they do not, then Zebre could just snatch it.

Prediction: Connacht by 5 points

Leinster vs. Newport Gwent Dragons (Saturday 8^th September K.O. 6.15 @ the RDS)

Joe Schmidt is a wily campaigner and knows that the League will be a marathon not a sprint, it might well not be his priority, but the heavy comprehensive defeat by the Scarlets will have hurt. The Leinster players will have worked hard in training this week. As Jonno Gibbes, the Assistant coach put it, “We have to react!” His general demeanour though was disappointment at the supine display of the Leinster forwards, and he was impressed by the Dragons against the Zebre. There is a good chance Isaac Boss will not be available and the mercurial Donnacha Ryan, put that alongside the unavailability of the province’s international contingent and Gibbes is probably right to be worried.

The Dragons have gone about their business professionally and quietly enjoying the best pre-season of the Welsh regions and will not be overawed by the prospect of playing Leinster at the RDS; Darren Edwards will see this as a very good time to be playing the European champions. They will want to maintain their momentum from last week and will look to bully and suppress the Leinster pack although bolstered by the return of Cullen will be sadly lacking in terms of nous and dog. If the Dragons can replicate their form of the first half against the Zebre they will win.

Prediction: Newport Gwent Dragons by 3

Ospreys vs. Ulster (Saturday 8^th September K.O. 6.30 @ the Liberty Stadium)

Ospreys know that they can play better than they did against Treviso, and they will want to get that disastrous game out of their system against Ulster on Saturday night. Ulster themselves will be looking for a more complete performance than they delivered against Glasgow. This could be a cracker of a game. If ospreys can play their smart pacey off loading game they will have too much for Ulster. But they will need to be much more accurate and dynamic up front and their scrum will be tested by the exceptional Ulster front row. On the other hand surely they cannot be as bad again? Ulster will be confident that they will be able to control possession for large tracts of time, their issue will be are they adept enough to use it and break down the well organised defensive patterns Ospreys use.

Prediction: Ospreys by 10


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Warren Gatland's first task

Yesterday the worst secret in rugby was finally out in the open with the appointment of Warren Gatland as the British and Irish lions coach for the 2013 tour to Australia. Almost immediately the speculation about players, test teams erupted, quite rightly Gatland himself saw that as premature his priority is to quickly get in place the best and most appropriate backroom staff that he possibly can. After a long coaching career in the Northern Hemisphere he will already have a long list of coaches and people he admires, respects and more significantly that he can work with, and that he can be sure that will put aside parochial national differences for the good of a polyglot British and Irish lions touring party.

When it comes to sources of good counsel Gatland is well aware that he has many experienced people to call upon. He has already said that he will talk to Graham Henry but the greatest Lion’s coach of all will be his first port of call; Sir Ian McGeehan’s mobile number  will be on speed dial; he may even choose to speak to the guru Sir Clive Woodward you can be sure that Gatland will leave no stone unturned. His priority over the next couple of weeks will not be the test team, perhaps not even the squad but managing to secure the services of the best coaches, analysts, medical staff that he can. Players will already put themselves under pressure to perform and Gatland and his selectors will realise that form fluctuates, there will be injuries and over the season new players emerge. He will look beyond the autumn internationals, the Six nations and watch players in the Aviva, the RaboDirect and the Super 14 as well. To do this properly will need lots of eyes and he will need to consider the make up of the party e.g. how many back row players to take? His relationship with Andy Irvine will be critical, he already knows Gerald Davies from Wales and the Lions in 2009 and that will ensure that proper chain of commend and demarcation of responsibilities will be easily established. Deciding on the composition of the rest of his team might not be so straightforward and it is here that Gatland will need to be aware of avoiding the accusation of Welsh bias, yet he will naturally want to stick with what and who he knows.

An international rugby team now has a vast panel of coaches, specialists and others with specific roles;

• Strength, conditioning and fitness
• Medical, doctor, physio, psychologist, sight, movement/gait analysis
• Notational analysis, sports science, media, legal, nutrition, chef

In terms of the game itself there are several broad headings that Gatland might consider; offence, defence, forwards, skills and yet even these can be broken down into other more specific areas, into individual as well as corporate areas e.g. the Line-out; strategy, calls, moves, movement, lifting, blocking, driving maul and of course the essential skill of throwing in! So, other coaches that might enter the equation might be for kicking, scrum, jackalling and tackling. All will need to fit into Gatland’s master plan that he will create to beat the Wallabies.

Perhaps his greatest difficulty will be the apparent plethora of professional high quality people he can select from. Given that Shaun Edwards is a shoo in for the role of Defence and Skills coach the next critical appointment will be Offence. The Wallabies back line on its day can be a fantastic unit capable of devastating any team so the choice of the Offence/Attacking coach will certainly be exercising Gatland’s mind. He will be considering the credentials of Joe Schmidt of Leinster very carefully and he knows the capabilities of Robert Howley very well but a dark horse for this position could be Alex King. He is doing a superb job at Clermont in the Super 14 and he played his best rugby under the tutelage of Gatland and Edwards at Wasps. The forward coach is not so easy. Gatland will bring a considerable influence here, and so he might well seek to divide the responsibilities here on a unit basis. Graham Rowntree has rightly built for himself an excellent reputation here. Gatland could do worse than ask Andy Robinson for assistance here; Scotland’s defeat of the Wallabies was not just based on rock solid defence and a tropical storm Robinson had worked out how to deny the wallaby’s ball. No-one understands back-row play better and that is the area that will be crucial to securing a Lions’ victory.

So, Gatland will not have entered the premature debate about the Lions’ test side he will have been thinking about his coaching panel and how he can use them to get the best out of the players. This is not an easy job, but Gatland set his stall out to get it, and he knows what it will take to be Lions coach to win a test series since the Lions of 1997.

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Round up of RaboDirect Pro12 Round 1

Benetton Treviso 12 Ospreys 6

Italian storms battered the Stadio Monigo and destroyed the Osprey’s hopes of a winning start to their campaign to retain the Championship. The Ospreys fielded a strong team with an experienced spine but there was a lack of precision about them, as if they were unable to absorb the physicality their opponents brought to the game. Indeed this defeat had a sense of déjà vu about it, once again the Ospreys found a way to secure defeat out of the jaws of victory. Sure, the disappointing dismissal of Ian Evans had an influence on the game. But, the Ospreys butchered three golden opportunities to score a try, and missed three kicks at goal. Add to that Treviso played for twenty minutes of the match down to fourteen men themselves and the Ospreys have only themselves to blame.

Of greater concern than the loss Tandy and his staff must have been disappointed by the lack of potency of the scrum and the distressing number of turnovers spilled by the team. Biggar did his best to galvanise the players around him, Beck threatened but could not quite break free and Dirksen had few opportunities. All in all a disappointing trip to Northern Italy for the champions and a big boost to Treviso, who mastered the conditions and the Ospreys pack.

Newport Gwent Dragons 37 Zebre 6

This was just the positive start the Dragons could have wished for as the newcomers to the Rabo, Zebre, were put to the sword in a swashbuckling first half display. Dan Evans made the type of debut a player dream of, scoring two tries and playing with ease and accuracy. Tom Prydie also played well showing himself to be a great threat in open play and kicking his goals. By halftime with four tries scored and playing with real confidence the job was done. What was disappointing the Dragons with the Zebre at their mercy could only score three more points in the second half. There will be greater challenges ahead but Dragons can be very happy with their first game. For the Zebre it looks like it will be a long hard season.

Ulster 18 Glasgow Warriors 10

Glasgow brought their tough uncompromising game to Ravenhill and stood up to the Ulster onslaught very well displaying real courage and tenacity. For long periods of the game there was very little to choose between the sides as Glasgow coped well with smothering the Ulster attacks. But, Ulster knows how to win close games and when an opportunity presents itself they generally take it. So when Glasgow went down to fourteen men they struck twice, quickly built a 15 to 3 lead and it was too far for Glasgow to come back. Particularly potent for the Ulstermen were their wingers Gilroy and Allen the try scorers. Both sides will take something from the game and will move onto next week with some confidence.

Edinburgh 18 Munster 23

Visser, last season’s top try scorer in the Rabo showed with a superb hat-trick of tries that he going to be just as deadly this season but despite his efforts Edinburgh still lost an exciting game. Munster scored two well worked tries themselves by Keatley and O’Dea and kept a characteristically tight hold on the game. As a declaration of intent by the Red Machine this was a very positive start.

Scarlets 45 Leinster 20

A superb and well deserved victory for the Scarlets borne out a desire to play fast attacking rugby that left a young and depleted Leinster side well beaten. Seven tries tells its own story. For the Scarlets George North was at times completely unplayable, scored two tries and cut the Leinster defence on several other occasions. The new second row pairing of Earle and Kelly provided real impetus up front and Aled Thomas controlled the game’s tempo very well.

Connacht 9 Cardiff Blues 13

This is the type of victory that can set the tone for a season and facing similar conditions to the Ospreys the Blues played them much more astutely and deservedly took their reward.

Cardiff used the wind and rain well in the first half to turnaround 13 points to the good. Their try was scored by the excellent teenage scrum half Jones and Sweeney kicked the goals. But, in the second half Connacht failed to follow Cardiff’s example and wasted several chances through a combination of poor handling and lack of accuracy. In particular Cardiff displayed an excellent reading of the Connacht line-out and pinched several crucial throws.

A solid 4 points for Cardiff and they can look forward to next week’s game against Edinburgh with some optimism.

Talking points

Discipline was supposed to be the watchword of so many of the teams, do not give away silly penalties, yellow cards to be strenuously avoided and work with the referee not upset him. From the first round of matches it is easy to conclude that several players only pay lip service to this. Ian Evans being ignominiously sent off was crucial to his team and was made worse by Tandy and AWJ pre-game assertions that they were determined to be more disciplined. Referees across the piece have been given the remit for zero tolerance and to keep the game flowing. What teams want is consistency and the Ospreys and Glasgow now realise that errors of judgement could be very costly indeed. On the other hand consistency was not so easy to spot in Galway, where the penalty count was 13 to 4 in the second half in Connacht’s favour, yet Cardiff did not lose a man.

The new rules at the scrum seemed to lead to more controlled confrontation, sped up the process and there were significantly less collapses. On the other hand all matches were marred by the referees once again ignoring the “Not straight” rule. This leads to frustration from the crowd and to a lesser extent from the players that have been forced to phlegmatically accept that there is not an even contest for the ball.

Performance of the Weekend   

There are several contenders for this accolade;

• Munster’s victory at Murrayfield, away wins are always crucial
• Cardiff’s defensive heroics, in the appalling weather of Galway
• Scarlet’s comprehensive drubbing of Leinster
• Treviso’s unexpected win over the champions

The team who performed well above expectations though to record a famous win and winner of the performance of the week is: Cardiff Blues.

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As regards my own predictions I managed to get 4/6 correct. Not as good as I would have liked but the Ospreys let me down and the Blues played with far more determination than last season.

Is it time for youth to answer Ireland's call?

When Declan Kidney made the decision to evacuate Paddy Wallace from his holiday on the Algarve to play in the catastrophic 3^rd test against the All Blacks it accurately summed up the ultra conservative coach’s attitude to the young players of Ireland. It confirmed that despite the heroics of the 2^nd test the party had truly travelled more in hope than expectation. The 60 nil drubbing, needs far more reflection than that? The IRFU cannot simply ignore what happened.  It is though, not all hopeless and the Irish U20 team shows that Ireland does still have a pool of talent and real potential available. The problem though will not be one of selection by Kidney rather the harder job of getting the “Big 3” provinces to pick and back these young players, giving them the vital experience necessary to make the step up to international rugby.

The flawed and disappointing regime of Kidney might well come crashing down if the autumn internationals prove a step too far for the current ageing and injury prone Irish squad. The Irish U20’s have shown during the Six Nations and in the recent JWC in South Africa that they are a group of players of genuine capacity and deserve far more consideration from Kidney and his staff. After all they defeated the junior ‘Boks, the only team to do so during the tournament. In Mike Ruddock they have a proven and capable coach who knows international rugby well and is an astute judge of talent. He has over the last two seasons put together teams that are savvy, physically imposing and play with pace and guile. But, how many of those players will be given the chance to play in the RaboPro12 this season or even fortunate enough to get quality game time elswhere?

Ireland have constructed the much heralded National Player Succession Strategy for 2013/14, which ostensibly puts the focus on maturing the young and up and coming talent across the provinces of Ulster, Munster and Lenister. Although the intentions are laudable the provinces will be far more pragmatic about their responsibilities and will find ways of circumventing its good intentions. The reality is that winning matches, trophies and championships is what counts, that is what protects careers and jobs and playing callow youngsters does not sit well with coaches paid to get results.

It is a sad fact that in Ireland excellent young players with talent to burn are consistently overlooked at their provinces, never mind by the national set-up. Darren Cave was overlooked for the jet lagged and obviously unfit Paddy Wallace in Hamilton. Other players that should have been called up like Ian Madigan, Ian Keatley and David Joner must be wondering what they have they have to do to get a fair shake. There’s an innate fear of change in Ireland, just consider the vehemence of the debate over the selection of the fading O’Gara versus the new force Sexton.

Given the tuning the Irish pack was given by the English and All Black packs there is a clear need to bring in new blood, that is belligerent, physical and imposing that will not bow at the knee to anybody. At Lenister there is the massive physical presence of the 19 year old 118 kgs Tahg Furlong. In the JWC ha scrummager superbly and was a force around the field. Yet he will be fourth choice at his province, how will that help his development? How will that help Ireland as they still try to find a genuine long term replacement for Hayes? At Ulster there is the prodigiously talented Iain Anderson who can play at 6 or lock at least with international calls he will get some game time, purely because he can not be ignored. This will give him the chance to learn and develop, others will simply not be that fortunate. Lenister have a superb academy, producing great players yet they still keep buying foreign talent. Against the junior ‘Boks all three members of the physically dominating Irish back row were from Lenister; Conan, Gilsenna and Coghlan could be Ireland’s back row in 2019 but they need to be playing now. But Lenister have so many riches in this area of their squad will they get a game?

But the jewel is JJ Hanaharnan, whose cool drop goal condemned the defeated ‘Boks. He is a Munster player and they know that they have to nurture his exceptional talent yet how will be first choice for Munster this season? It is time for the IRFU to show some leadership and vision here, not bask in Heineken cups won by foreign coaches and stars, and one Grand Slam from such a feted generation of players and realise that unless young Irish talent is given the chance to play on the bigger stages, the humiliation of Hamilton will become the norm. Provinces have to be made to give young players to chance, coaching has to become more enlightened to encourage the development of these players before they are lost to the game.

Consider how old was Brian O’Driscoll when he made his stunning debut? The answer, is that he was 20, and played for Ireland before he played for Lenister. 

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Predictions week 1 RaboPro12 2012/13

Game 1: Treviso vs. Ospreys at Stadio Monigo

No team can take a visit to the Stadio Monigo lightly. At home Treviso is always strong and brings a much cleverer game to the table than is generally understood. Treviso has recruited well and has increased the firepower of their formidable pack. But, Ospreys will travel with confidence and will expect to win. It is a tough start for the champions but after a hard and physical encounter they will narrowly prevail.

Prediction: Ospreys to win by 3 points

Game 2: Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues at the Sportsground

Whatever the weather forecast this is a stormy place to go and play rugby. Connacht have developed into a tough and clever team, this is definitely not a fixture Cardiff would have looked forward to at all. Phil Davies has done very well to shift the black clouds of pessimism that hung over the Arms Park but this is a very stern test for his new team indeed.

Prediction: Connacht to win by 3 or less

Game 3: Edinburgh Rugby vs. Munster at Murrayfield

A severe test for Edinburgh’s league credentials and although Michael Bradley has strengthened the squad, a Munster team absolutely determined to put last season’s disappointments well and truly behind them will be very hard for Edinburgh to handle.

Prediction: Munster to win by 10

Game 4: Newport Gwent Dragons vs. Zebre at Rodney Parade

Put simply Newport simply have to win this game. Zebre, the new Italian franchise, are the ultimate unknown quantity and Newport will seek to put them under pressure from the first whistle, do not let them settle and hope to put them to the sword. Newport should have too much nous and team unity not to defeat the Italians.

Prediction: Newport to win by 10 points

Game 5: Scarlets vs. Lenister at Parc y Scarlets

This match is arguably the game of the weekend and could put down a marker for either side as regards their prospects this season. Lenister are the Heineken cup champions and runners up in the Rabo last season; they bring real pedigree with them. Yet there is sense of vulnerability, as this is the first game of the season and they will be without their big names. Easterby will have been targeting this game since the fixtures were announced and he will make sure that the Scarlet are coming nicely to the boil when they take the field at 6.30 on Saturday. Scarlets have the team to do well this season and they have strengthened the squad in the right places. This will be an exciting pell mell of a game and it will be home advantage that will prove the crucial difference.

Prediction:  Scarlets to win by 3 points

Game 6: Ulster vs. Glasgow Warriors at Ravenhill

The forbidding fortress that is the home of Ulster rugby the intimidating Ravenhill will be full for the visitors from across the water and they will be accorded the traditional hostile welcome. After last season’s heroics Glasgow will not be underestimated, they are tough, nuggety side and Ulster will not be able to easily put them away. But in the last twenty minutes the Ulster pack will have built up a head of steam and that is when the Ravenhill faithful will be repaid for their support.

Prediction: Ulster to win by 10

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Preview Welsh teams Rabo Pro12 2012/13

Team: Cardiff Blues

Director of Rugby: Phil Davies

Ground: Cardiff Arms Park, Westgate Street, Cardiff

Key Players in:

Lou Reed (Scarlets), Benoit Borrust (Perpignan), Andi Kyriacou (Ulster), Jason Tovey (Newport Gwent Dragons), Campese Ma'afu (West Harbour Pirates), Robin Copeland (Rotherham Titans), Rob Lewis (London Welsh),

Key Players out:

Richie Rees (Edinburgh), John Yapp (Edinburgh), Rhys Thomas (Wasps), Dan Parks (Connacht), Casey Laulala (Munster), Gethin Jenkins (Toulon), Xavier Rush (retired) Paul Tito (retired), Ma'ama Molitika (TBC), Deiniol Jones (retired), Martyn Williams (retired).

Strengths

After last season’s underachievement there is a palpable sense of positive anticipation emanating from the Blues as the first day of the season approaches. Phil Davies has used his experience of the Celtic and Aviva championships to good effect has come in and brought an order and structure to the club that was so clearly absent last season. Pre-season has gone well, with a much more professional and sports science led approach that should pay dividends this season. Signings have not been of the “Marquee” type, so normal for Cardiff in previous seasons but; show a more considered and constructive approach.  Cardiff will play with a more coherent game-plan this time around and critically now look like they can play for the full eighty minutes. There is in place a very strong backline; Halfpenny, Roberts, Robinson, Lloyd Williams and the clever Jason Tovey will offer threats from all over the pitch. The recruitment of the formidable and huge French prop Borrust and the Scarlets lock Reed will give much needed ballast and strength to the pack. Davies has clearly worked hard to instil a positive team ethos and work ethic and that coupled with the return to the iconic if slightly faded grandeur of the Arms Park will certainly invigorate the team.

Weakness

Will need to deal with the expectation of the fans, the team is rebuilding and will lose games this season and will take time to gel. Tovey will need to play well and crucially stay free from injury as will the troika of Roberts, Warburton and Halfpenny. They have lost two great “Get out of jail” players in Williams and Molitika as well as the supreme gain line breaker Xavier Rush. The pack could well be the team’s Achilles heel, last season they were often bullied and outmanoeuvred and certainly the scrum will be heavily targeted. International call ups could also hurt the team although Davies appears to be anticipating this with the inclusion of the under-rated Hewitt in the senior players group.

Star man

Cardiff has many players to choose from but, the selection of Andries Pretorius as captain, could well make or break their season. Blues director of rugby Phil Davies said: "I think Andries will grow into the role. He's very much a doer at the moment, which is good; he's a very good speaker and very articulate." He is the sort of player that leads by example and thrives on hard work and will not duck any challenge be it on a wet and mucky night in Galway or on the more luxurious fields of France and Cardiff will need that.

Last season

They finished seventh in the Rabo Pro12.

Prediction

Although the Blues can look forward to the season with some optimism there is still a long way to go. The Blues will finish third out of the four of the Welsh regions and 6^th in the Rabo Pro12 championship.

Website: www.cardiffblues.com

Twitter: twitter.com/Cardiff_blues

Facebook: Cardiff Blues

Team: Llanelli Scarlets

Coach: Simon Easterby

Ground: Parc y Scarlets, Pemberton Retail Park

Key Players in:

Gareth Owen (Ospreys), Liam Davies (during season), Viliame Iongi (during season), Ruki Tipuna (Bay of Plenty, during season), Kristian Phillips (Ospreys), George Earle (Cheetahs), Tomás Vallejos (Harlequins), Jake Bell (unattached).

Key Players out:

Stephen Jones (London Wasps), Dominic Day (Bath), Lou Reed (Cardiff Blues), Damian Welch (Exeter), Ben Morgan (Gloucester), Sean Lamont (Glasgow), Ruki Tipuna (Bristol, during season), Iestyn Thomas (retired, during season).

Strengths

Last season promised much but ultimately fizzled out into disappointment but that could well prove be a very useful source of motivation for the new coach of the Llanelli Scarlets, Simon Easterby. Scarlets, as always, will be an exciting team to watch and there will certainly be thrill and spills galore at Parc y Scarlets.  But, it remains to be seen if they now possess the maturity and coolness to close out the tough games. On the other hand they have at their disposal a superb backline oozing talent, confidence and serious pace. North, Davies, Scott Williams, Priestland and Knoyle will give opposing coaches sleepless nights and then when you add into the mix the returning mercurial Stoddart and the ridiculously quick Kristian Phillips then Scarlets will be scared of no-one. Facing such formidable resources opponents will try to deny the Scarlets the ball and to that end Easterby has recruited three uncompromising Southern Hemisphere second rows. Importantly all three are young and have signed up for three years Vallejos, Earle and Ball will give the Scarlets pack the core of steel and bulk that was missing last season.

Weakness

The loss of the imposing figure of Ben Morgan could be very significant and the trio of Turnbull, Shingler and McKlusker must now turn athletic promise into consistent ball winning and ground gaining prowess. Ken Owens has to bulk up into the formidable scrummager that Matthew Rees is otherwise; the scrum will be ruthlessly targeted, especially with the retirement of Iestyn Thomas.

Player watch

With so many quality players it is difficult to single one out but, Rhys Priestland will need to rediscover his RWC form and show that he can properly manage games, and get the best out of the outstanding players around him. But, for the Scarlets to thrive they will need their set piece to work consistently well and in Ken Owens they could have the next Welsh and Lions hooker.

Last season: A disappointing fifth.

Prediction: Second out of the four Welsh regions and third in the Rabo Pro12.

Website: www.scarlets.co.uk

Facebook: Scarlets official page

Twitter: Scarlets_rugby on twitter

Team: Ospreys

Head Coach: Steve Tandy

Ground: Liberty stadium, Swansea

Key players in:

Stefan Watermeyer (Blue Bulls, during season), Jonathan Spratt (London Irish).

Key players out:

 Paul James (Bath), Huw Bennett (Lyon), Nikki Walker (Worcester), Shane Williams (Mitsubishi Dynaboars), Tommy Bowe (Ulster), Sonny Parker (London Welsh), James Goode (loan to Newcastle, during season), Tom Prydie (loan to Wasps, during season; Newport Gwent Dragons), Kristian Phillips (Scarlets), Cai Griffiths (London Irish), Gareth Owen (Scarlets).

Strengths

In European and Rabo Pro12 terms the Ospreys have a squad that should be challenging in all competitions. It has a depth and quality that is the envy of many clubs in the competition. But, its greatest attribute now appears to a palpable collective sense of purpose a desire to win trophies and make history. Ospreys skipper Alun Wyn Jones admits they will have to work "harder and smarter" to make history by retaining the Pro12 title. No team has yet successfully defended the competition in any of its guises, including four-times winners the Ospreys. Wales lock Jones said: "We've never really had that great a defence of it off the back of winning it.”I don't know why. If I did we'd have won it every year." The key is here they appear to be setting out their stall to do it. When there was meltdown at the Liberty last season the Ospreys circled the wagons and found the belligerent cohesiveness and united fury to win the championship against the odds. It is that level of intensity that if they repeat it this season will be their greatest asset. They possess the players to do it; Tipuric, AWJ, Ian Evans, Ryan Jones, Biggar, Rhys Webb, Dirksen and many more. Wherever they play the team will be respected and in many places feared.

Weakness

Despite the gloss of last seasons terrific efforts there is still an air of occasional complacency about the team, exemplified by the home defeat to Glasgow. They can make careless errors, try to play too much rugby in the wrong parts of the field and communication particularly defensively, can break down. The loss of Paul James will be significant; steeped in the Ospreys he was a big player for them. It remains to be seen if Ryan Bevington can fill those big boots. The lineout can be predictable and Hibbard needs to be more disciplined and combine his aggression with proper fitness and self discipline. Despite the holistic threat that the Ospreys appear to exude they still give opportunities for the opposition to attack them and that gives a good side confidence.

Player watch

There are several players in the Ospreys worthy of this consideration; Tipuric, Rhys Webb, Matthew Morgan. But, a player that has the ability to step into the boots of Tommy Bowe rather than Shane Williams, will be vital to the Ospreys season that is Hanno Dirksen. When he was on fire last season he was unstoppable and if he can avoid second season syndrome then the Ospreys will have another great season.

Last season: Champions

Prediction: First of the Welsh regions and the first team to successfully defend the Celtic title.

Team: Newport Gwent Dragons

Coach: Darren Edwards

Ground: Rodney Parade, Newport

Key Players in:

Tonderai Chavhanga, (from Lions, during season), Andy Tuilagi (from Sale, during season), Tom Prydie (Ospreys), Dan Evans (Scarlets), Ian Nimmo (Cornish Pirates), Tim Ryan (Cavalieri Prato).

Key Players out:

Jason Tovey (Cardiff Blues), Matthew Jones (Bristol, during season), Luke Charteris (Perpignan), Aled Brew (Biarritz), Martyn Thomas (Gloucester), Tom Willis (retired during season), Scott Morgan (TBC).

Strengths

No club in Wales displays the togetherness of the Dragons. This strength comes from adversity and being the perpetual underdog. When the Dragons play at Rodney Parade they are always a force to be reckoned with using their sense of injustice to its fullest extent. They have an outstanding back row, full of skill, muscle and threat; the signings of Prydie and Evans has added some much needed pace and pedigree to the backs and the pack will always be competitive if prone to indiscipline. Rodney Parade is a real asset, the playing surface is excellent and the redevelopment has not taken away from its unique intimidating atmosphere. No side will relish playing there.

Weakness 

Opposition will target their games against the Dragons; the perceived wisdom is that they are the poorest of the Welsh regions in terms of resources and lumbered with debt. Loss of the totemic players, Brew, Tovey and the immense Charteris could well have ripped the heart out of the team. Critical positions lack quality; Tight Head, second row, scrum half and outside half. They need to win on the road; most teams will have a “W” against this fixture, particularly at home. Darren Edwards and his staff will have to work very hard to change the team’s mindset and create an expectation of winning.

Player watch

Lewis Evans as captain is an outstanding player who has been with the region since he was at school and he will be an inspiring leader, although the loss of his rival Darren Waters to a bad knee injury is a cruel blow. Tom Prydie has the chance to reignite his career and the adage, “Form is temporary, class is permanent” needs to be apt here. If he is able to find the form that so impressed Warren Gatland then he could make the season for the Dragons. But, the player to watch is the 25 year old prop Hugh Gustafson; he possesses the attributes to become an international prop and the time has now come for Hugh to deliver on his potential.

Last season Ninth in the Rabo Pro 12

Prediction

They have an issue of identity. Too many Welsh rugby fans they are simply “Newport”, they do not adequately represent their constituency of the Gwent valleys, ignoring the former powerbases of welsh rugby. They are unloved by the majority of the Welsh rugby public. The losses of Brew and Charteris will be huge and the region’s ability to hold onto Lydiate and Faletau is bound to be sorely tested over the coming months. Last season’s 9^th place in the Rabo Pro12 cannot be repeated. It is perhaps Newport more than any other Welsh region that has the most to fear from the initiative sponsored by the shadow Welsh secretary, Pontypridd MP Owen Smith to create a fan-owned side for the valleys; of course it doesn’t have to be a new region it could simply replace a failing one.

Sadly they could well finish fourth out of the four Welsh regions, and tenth in the Rabo Pro 12

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“Les enfants terrible” – The chance for redemption for Cipriani & Henson?

All too often it is the “Bad boys” of the sport that make the pulse rate race, that cause the endless debates about their quality, worth, whether they deserve to be selected and even their dress sense. Yet often almost grudgingly the quality of their play far exceeds their flamboyance taking the game to a higher level brings forth admiration and praise. Brash, arrogant and apparently supremely self confident; they can appear almost astonishingly brittle, they can be infuriating but can never be ignored. Cipriani and Henson are about to try and ply their magic in the unforgiving world of the Aviva premiership, and there can be no doubt that on their day they can both light up a field and take a drab boring game back into the sunshine. For both though there is a caveat this is probably their last opportunity to fulfil their destiny. Both can turn the staccato liquid language of the game into poetry, playing at a level far above their team-mates.

Rugby sells itself as a game for “All shapes and sizes”, and this has to include egos and personalities. Cipriani and Henson see the game as theirs to shape, manage and dominate. These are the type of players that supporters want to watch, applauding joyously when they succeed and shaking their heads unforgiving and critical when they fail. In the harsh professional world of the Aviva there is little room for failure or sentiment; jobs and careers are always on the line. In particular for the coaches of Sale and London Welsh the form of these two players could easily dictate their futures. All three are proven coaches, too experienced and pragmatic not to recognize the huge risk they have taken. Both bring hype, huge baggage and a sense of underachievement with them.

To succeed they will both need support from their coaches as there will definitely be tough times ahead. From the outside Diamond and his right hand man Redpath appear very different to the extrovert and media savvy Lyn Jones. Jones has a deserved reputation for advocating attacking rugby, his teams play with flair and belief. His management and dignified leadership of London welsh on their winning Championship campaign has restored his reputation. Diamond and Redpath would appear to Sale fans as the “Dream team”, steeped in the club. Whereas London Welsh have to stay up, for Sale they have very different and loftier ambitions. They know that it is consistency that will be needed not moments of individual brilliance to win the typical hard slog matches of the Aviva. Somehow they have to find a way to allow the maverick Cipriani to fit into a system that wins those tight games. The pressure appears to be already building; Redpath has publicly admonished the club’s senior players for their pre-season efforts. There have been big signings at the club, a move to a new stadium, the pressure of trying to be successful deep in Super league territory and now Kennedy the owner is trying to buy the bankrupt Glasgow Rangers. Sale desperately needs a triumphant season and a successful campaign in the Heineken Cup; this would appear to be a very tall order. Cipriani is going to have to settle very quickly.

Cipriani and Henson undoubtedly are capable of dominating any game they choose to but it could be argued that their best days are behind them. Cipriani harshly rejected by the increasingly desperate Johnson went off to Melbourne to rediscover his game. His time in the Super 15 was underwhelming to say the least and they even let him go before the end of his contract. However, if he can revive his game, stay injury free and critically not try to force the play then a Cipriani playing well could well be the answer for Sale and maybe even for England.

For Henson the challenge is a simple one, his troubles are well documented he needs to focus on his rugby, he is probably all too aware that he will probably never get another chance. In Jones he has the only coach that has consistently got the best out of him, they go back a very long way and significantly they clearly trust and like each other. Henson after his years of self imposed exile is still searching for the instinctive brilliance that saw him as one of Wales’ best players in the Grand Slams of ’05 and ’08. What used to be so effortless appeared clumsy during his recent matches. Jones astute or courageous declaration that he intends to play Henson at 10 is to keep Henson involved in the game constantly to show trust in his abilities and to give him a clearly defined role in contrast to how shabbily handled Henson was by the Blues. More importantly, it would show that he has absolute faith in him. On the other hand this a huge gamble by London Welsh, with their hand probably forced by the RFU farcical handling of the whole promotion issue.

Whatever happens at least the respective Club Chairmen will be happy as both these players put bums on seats. It will be fascinating to watch how they go about their business and if they could both succeed, the game would suddenly have got a whole lot better to watch.
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"The persistence of summer"

“Rugby may have many problems but the gravest is undoubtedly that of the persistence of summer.”

These are the wise words of the ex All Black and inventor of the spin pass, Chris Laidlaw who in so many respects has hit the nail on the head. Despite, the undoubted attractions of the rugby from the Southern hemisphere with its intensity, exceptional skill levels and simple brutality it can not overcome the obstacles of time difference and the quality of the local commentators. Summer is a time of torpor of recuperation for the forthcoming season, it is also a time when followers fall greedily on any news emanating from their club, province or region: when is pre-season training?, the drip of new signings and departures and of course the marketing department trying to drum season ticket sales or selling off the old replica shirts in xs/xxxl. Then thankfully a sign appears a concrete symbol that the new season is close and the days to the start of the season are easy to count. This happens with the publication of the fixtures for the new season. It is then that the ardent fan can at last begin to plan their year, where ideas hatched at a beery barbecue can become reality; the year can now be planned. When are the most significant matches, no-go weekends, or others where you simply can not leave the country or at least choose a hotel that has Sky Sports. The examination of these fixtures takes on the shape of a holy ritual, only shared if at all in secret with your most intimate confidant. This is particularly important if there is a scheme to visit one of Europe’s most glamorous cities for a Heineken Cup match or indeed an international without the presence of your wife/partner.

The conclusion of these discussions bear fruit in the shape of a complete map of the year; a guide that leaves no real room for manoeuvre but published on a need to know basis, the completion of which creates an aura usually associated with the need for a cigarette. Below is a list of the matches that might be considered sacrosanct. It is not designed to be exhaustive yet it does serve to demonstrate the myriad possibilities of the season ahead. It goes without saying that large portions are already conveniently decided: the Six Nations, November internationals, Heineken Cup, knockout phases and the final; respective play-offs and finals. Gloriously this season concludes with the British and Irish Lions tour of Australia this adds up to 16 wonderful weeks of rugby already mapped out. But it is then that the “Nitty gritty” begins depending on your team and the competition they play in. Below is a selection of fixtures to look forward to, to savour the anticipation of they are not to be seen as definitive but rather to illustrate the wonderful conundrum of making a choice from such riches.

The Aviva Premiership

Date	Match
15/09	Saracens vs. Leicester
22/09	Leicester vs. Harlequins
29/09	Harlequins vs. Saracens
6/10	Gloucester vs. Bath
3/11	Leicester vs. Northampton
16/02	Harlequins vs. Leicester
23/02	Leicester vs. Saracens
23/03	Exeter vs. Leicester
13/04	Harlequins vs. Bath
04/05	Harlequins vs. Northampton

League form and performance could alter any of these in terms of importance and relevance. As a neutral there is the question of; how will Bath perform? Can Dai Young resuscitate Wasps? What can Redpath and Diamond do for sale in their new stadium? Lyn Jones and London Welsh do they have any chance at all? Will Exeter kick on again and revel in the Heineken Cup? All of this just makes you want the season to start now! But, how can the computer so randomly create a fixture list that involves Leicester with two such potentially vital games in the middle of the Six nations?

The Rabo Direct Pro 12

Given the excitement of the semi’s and the final last season there is a need for the status of the competition for all of the teams involved  to produce their best across the whole of the championship this season.

Date	Match
31/08	Scarlets vs. Leinster
07/09	Ospreys vs. Ulster
14/09	Ulster vs. Munster
29/09	Ospreys vs. Munster
02/11	Ospreys vs. Leinster
21/12	Ulster vs. Leinster
28/12	Edinburgh vs. Glasgow
1/03	Munster vs. Ospreys
29/03	Blues vs. Ospreys
29/03	Leinster vs. Ulster
12/04	Munster vs. Leinster
3/05	Leinster vs. Ospreys

It is a reflection of the great strengths and weaknesses of the Rabo that the top teams tend to name themselves. The Irish provinces are the teams to beat but last season the Ospreys were able to beat them all. This season can Edinburgh use the experience of their journey in the Heineken Cup to make a serious assault on the league; can Glasgow kick on from just being a hard side to beat? Scarlets will need to show that the loss of Coach Nigel Davies is not a fatal wound and can the sleeping giant of the Blues finally rouse itself to actually play like a team? Then there is the intriguing prospect of the “Zebre”, for the sake of the credibility of Italian rugby they need to show that there is another team in Italy, other than Treviso.
The Orange Top 14
With so much glamour and potential in the Top 14 almost of all its matches could be fantastic. Also in such a long season lasting from August 18^th to June 1^st there are certain to be many twists and turns. It is the oldest rugby league competition in the world and the pursuit of the Boucleir de Brennus has a spiritual hold over all of the teams and their fans.

Date	Match
18/08	Perpignan vs. Toulon
31/08	Biarritz vs. Toulouse
29/09	Toulouse vs. Toulon
06/10	Castres vs. Clermont
06/10	Biarritz vs. Toulon
26/10	Clermont vs. Biarritz
30/11	Toulouse vs. Clermont
29/12	Toulon vs. Perpignan
02/03	Bayonne vs. Biarritz
20/04	Paris vs. Racing Metro

There are simply so many great match-ups that it is next to impossible to create a definitive list of must watch games. Any games involving Toulouse has the potential to be a great game or an upset depending on your point of view. Castres can they match last seasons endeavours? Perpignan and Biarritz can they start as badly again? Will the galacticos of Bayonne finally gel and become genuinely competitive? Clermont what will they focus on, can Fofana avoid second season syndrome? Toulon will the jigsaw finally fit together? The possibilities are seemingly endless.
The start of the season cannot come soon enough

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