Wales has to manage expectations

 

 

“Expectation is at the root of all heartache”- Shakespeare/Welsh rugby supporter

 

On Saturday Wales and South Africa will face each other in the midst of a media frenzy of disappointment and scathing criticism. The quality of rugby played by them during the autumn internationals has been so uninspiring it has been seen as symptomatic of the terminal decline of Welsh and South African rugby. Allister Coetzee the coach of SA is fighting for his job and has promised to beat Wales ‘at all costs’ and Howley of Wales is desperately seeking the credibility to prove that he is the anointed successor of Gatland.

For Wales there is a sense that the country is being left behind, that the rugby they are playing has had its day. The statistics support the notion that since 2013 Wales has been enduring a slow but steady decline. Many of the players have not changed since 2011; although hugely experienced, they do not look capable of bringing anything new to their game. Yet, in Liam Williams, George North, Scott Williams and Gareth Davies, Wales possess some of the best runners and finishers in world rugby but they are failing to live up to the expectations of supporters. Wales will play in the familiar surroundings of the Principality stadium and that should be a bubbling cauldron of national ferocity and desire against a SA low on confidence and morale, but tragically most Welsh supporters expect a loss. Yes, SA will be desperate to win, to salvage some pride from what is shaping up to be their most disastrous tour ever. Luckily SA are a side as easy as Wales have apparently become to work out, as Nick Mallet, ex SA coach and now pundit said on Saturday, ‘Springbok attacks are too simplistic, all you need to stop them is to be brave. Match the Bok physicality and there is not much left.’ Despite this it has to be noted that Wales have faced SA 31 times and won only twice. This will, and should, reinforce the Springbok’s belief that they can win this match. But if Wales can match their famed physicality, and what they have failed to show so far in the autumn is not courage or commitment rather composure and assuredness under pressure, the ability to run into space rather than the opposition then this a match Wales certainly have the talent to win.

 However tempting it is for Howley and his coterie of coaches to circle the wagons they must not. Success for Wales will come from taking heart from the positive approach shown by both Scotland and Ireland, who have rattled sides by their willingness to attack at pace and in numbers. There are many aspects of Wales’ recent play that has been disappointing, the forwards have lacked devil, have not carried well and exhibited poor awareness at the breakdown in creating the quick ball with which the backs need to attack. Japan and Australia exposed this naivety and lack of organisation repeatedly and ruthlessly. SA will be just as much of a challenge. There is so much riding on this game for both sides and the winner that will emerge will be the one that maintains the high quality of their play under pressure and clinically takes their chances. What Wales will need to do is to avoid the inevitable brutal collisions that the Springboks will be desperate for and look to finesse their way through a crowded midfield into the spaces beyond the gainline.

SA shorn of many of its stars, including the totemic Eben Etzebeth, will find it difficult to change from their traditional confrontational approach and this should allow Howley to work out a game plan to circumvent it. On Saturday Howley and several of the players need to stand up and be counted and show the type of side Wales can be under his tutelage. When he announces his selection for the match it should show what he believes the team could do and show that it is really his team. If he decides to stick with the tried and tested expectations will be low. But if he is brave and selects the mercurial Sam Davies at 10, Scott Williams and a back row of Moriaty, Faletau, Tirpuric and with Warburton to come off the bench then expectations will rise and so crucially will the risks but more significantly so will the chance of high rewards.

 

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Can Wales finally beat the Wallabies?

Can Wales finally beat the Wallabies?

 

Wales v Australia 5th November 2016 k.o. 2.30pm

 

 

     Saturday 5th November will be a day of reckoning for Wales. It could be the start of a new era building upon the flickers of improvement and ambition glimpsed in New Zealand or will the team fall back to the formula of the 6N that has brought success in that championship but patently failed against the Southern Hemisphere teams. What makes this test match so intriguing is the sense that the Wallabies are perceived as being not up to their usual high standards. Their recent defeats in 6 out of 9 matches does not tell the whole story; they were competitive in every match they played, performing with grit and edge but lacked the fluency of old. Despite their protestations there is an air of vulnerability around them.

For Wales to win they must dominate these Wallabies from the first whistle, not take a backward step and ensure that everyone in the team does the basics well. Despite the injuries and enforced absences Wales can field a settled and experienced side. But, this is a double edged sword, it means that the Wallabies know what to expect and they will be confident that they can contain Wales. If the Wales’ front 5 can establish a hold over the Australian pack and deny space to their back row then the carrying power of Owens, Davies, Charteris and Moriaty will allow the in-form Tirpuric to weave his magic and with the irrepressible Webb, Wales will surely prosper. On the other hand Cheika has the judgement to ensure that the Australian forwards will front up and they will attempt to bully and manhandle the Welsh pack. They possess a strong scrummaging front row under the tutelage of ex-Argentine hooker Mario Ledesma, Scott Sio, Stephen Moore and Sekope Kepu and are unlikely to come off second best against their Welsh counterparts. The Wallabies have also unearthed a core of very big men in the back five who can all run, jump and tackle: 6’10 120kgs Rory Arnold, 6’8 122kgs Adam Coleman and 6’4 123kgs no.8 Lopeti Timani. They have the makings of a pack to be reckoned with. The selection of Pocock at 6 is not a gamble even though he has not played international rugby in that position; he is a world class player and will not let his country down. They will be all knees, elbows and feet at the breakdown and the contest there will not be for the faint hearted and referee Craig Joubert will have a crucial role. With Halfpenny returning for Wales Australia know that they will have to keep their penalty count down or they will see Wales keeping the scoreboard ticking over.

Nick Evans in last week’s Sunday Times talked about preferring a ball carrying 12 outside him and in Jamie Roberts Wales possess one of the best in the world. Last season was not, however, one of his best and Howley needs to have planned how Wales should use him to the side’s best advantage; as a decoy, perhaps, even allowing him to pass but critically whoever is selected to play at 10 must play on the gainline to speed up the game and give Roberts the chance to burst through. Biggar is to start, but the prospect of the exciting Sam Davies coming off the bench could see Wales play a far faster game. Davies loves to play in the heavy traffic and will bring players on to his flat pass at speed and utilising Roberts and Davies who, always a threat, should test the Wallabies’ resolve by attacking the wider channels and examine the defensive quality of the Australian midfield. On the wings Wales have a clear edge and if North and Cuthbert get some space they will score tries.

The absence of AWJ will be sorely felt but in Charteris Wales have an excellent battle hardened second row to come in and the set piece and ball carrying of the Welsh forwards will not have been weakened in the slightest. Australia have not become a bad side overnight and this promises to be a fantastic contest, they have good players throughout the team; Folau, Hooper and Pocock would grace any side. Any side that has Israel Folau in it will run hard, just ask the coach! They will not lack the incentive to win the game; having already announced that their ambition is to achieve a Grand Slam, to lose the first game would certainly put a dint in that target.

Despite the loss of influential players Wales still have the personnel with which to win this test match and to do so in a manner that could take the rugby world by surprise. The return of Halfpenny, the Howley factor freed from Gatland’s pragmatism and the prospect for the Welsh players of putting down an early marker for the Lions will all help. Wales need to move on from NZ and show that they now have the ‘All Court’ game to beat any team, playing at pace and showing they too can be relentless and maintain a high tempo and, if needed, go up a gear to put sides away by clinically taking any of the opportunities on offer.

But the real motivation for these Welsh players is to lose the unwelcome epithet of being constantly seen as ‘the nearly men’.

 

Prediction: Wales to win by 3 - 10 points

 

 

Wales v Australia

“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it”

 

This quote, by George Santayana the Spanish philosopher, neatly sums up Wales’ last eleven matches against the Wallabies where they have lost all of the matches narrowly and often in the last few minutes of the game. Can they break this hold the Australian rugby team appears to have over them? They will only do so if they manage to successfully change their mind-set. Despite Australia’s mediocre season, which began with a 3-0 test series loss to England, they will go into Saturday’s game as favourites and confident of a win. Wales are seen by many pundits as simply unable to beat teams from the southern hemisphere. They have a point; Wales’ record in the autumn is dismal with a 40% win record. If Wales are to live up to their exhortations as potential winners of the Rugby World Cup then they need to start on Saturday against the 2016 Wallabies with a triumph.

If the Wallabies could have chosen who to play first on this Grand Slam tour then Cheika and his players would have plumped for Wales. They have not tasted defeat to Wales since 2008. Australia will expect to win and if Howley’s team are going to deny them that victory then they will have to show that they have learnt the lessons of their history. International sport, rugby in particular, depends on small margins to secure a win and this is often done by optimising the mental preparation of the team. There can be no doubt that Wales possess the players to win, and to win well, but to accomplish their task they will need to establish a psychological as well as physical dominance over the Wallabies. The recent heart breaking defeats should be utilised to show what needs to be done differently.  Seeing chances with clarity, is one thing, taking them clinically is another, retaining composure in the eye of the storm will be what makes the crucial difference.

On Saturday, in what will be a cauldron of pressure and expectation, the side that will emerge victorious will be the one that makes and executes the correct choices precisely and allows them to exert some control over the way that decisions are made at the critical moments. The coaches will then know if the essential realistic pressure they put the players under in the pre-match training sessions has paid dividends. The pundit Martyn Williams spoke of Wales not getting up to speed until the 3^rd or 4^th game of the autumn international series; this sounds like an excuse not worthy of international players. It also begs the question why has the WRU agreed to play a Tier 1 nation first up? Why not invite Georgia to play if Wales can’t raise their game from the off? Perhaps more pertinently what does it say about the quality of the Pro12 league or the training the players do in camp before the first game? Clearly Wales will have to overcome this handicap as well as whatever the Wallabies will throw at them.

Without their talismanic captain, Sam Warburton, the more experienced players will need to stand up and be counted and give a clear focus and lead on the pitch, show what they have learnt and embrace the responsibility. As Michael Cheika nurses his shattered shoulder he will still have been scheming and plotting as to how he can secure a Wallabies win. Much of his approach will come from his familiarity with this Welsh side and how they will play and that will give confidence to him, his players and coaches. But if Howley has learnt from the recent tour to NZ then he could surprise these Wallabies by having the self-assurance to allow the players to work out how to win this match. Cheika has circled the waggons, piqued by what he has translated as the “disrespect” his players have been shown and they will play to a rugged intense game plan attempting to manhandle the Welsh forwards and create space for his back row to thrive. If, though, Wales resolve to play a smarter game and show that they have developed a style of play which attacks with skill and pace and takes chances, rather than seeking the safety-first option, then they could shock the Wallabies who could well be guilty of complacency from their own analysis of the recent history between the two sides.

Eddie Jones, whose Midas touch with the England side could be under severe threat over the coming weeks as he deals with a crippling injury list, has already talked about getting the psychology right for the SA match and Howley needs to have spent as much time as he can on getting the players’ minds right for the challenge on the 5th November as working with the ball. Training will have been intense but will it have been representative? Will players have been asked to perform their skills and decision making when they are at their most fatigued? No one doubts the players’ levels of motivation. Matches though are not won by desire alone but by the players who keep their heads and seize their chances. Howley and his coaching team have to have empowered the players to play what they see in front of them and back themselves to be able to think clearly and correctly under pressure, executing the skills they possess and doing the simple things well and ensure that they prepared for the unexpected and can respond appropriately.

 For Howley to be realistic in his aspirations to become Gatland’s successor then this is his best opportunity to show how Wales can be different and successful under his generalship.