RaboDirecrtPro12 Round 2 Predictions

Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh Rugby (Friday 7^th September K.O. 7.05 @ Cardiff Arms Park)

Cardiff’s hard fought victory in the wind and rain of Connacht was just the start Phil Davies’s team was hoping for. The scenes at the end of the game exemplified the hard work of pre-season and that it had begun to pay dividends. The team is clearly united, determined and much better organised than last season; this coupled with the team’s emotional return to their spiritual home of the Cardiff Arms Park will give them the needed momentum to take on and eventually subdue a brave Edinburgh side.

The Scot’s will come well prepared and with the two Cardiff old boys, Richie Rees and John Yapp, in their ranks fired up for the contest. Tim Visser will not care who he plays against of the Blues’ international wingers after last weeks hat trick he will be buzzing, and determined not to end up on the losing side once again. Edinburgh with Laidlaw to the fore will bring a clever game and some hard hitting forwards and this will make them worthy opponents. But the Blues have a well organised defence, a dogged back row and some real pace out wide. With the bulk of their internationals slated to return for this game this will bolster the team and enable them to deal comfortably with whatever Edinburgh can bring to the party; after a close game for an hour, the Cardiff Blues roared on by what is certain to be a large crowd, will win.

Prediction: Cardiff Blues by 10 points

Munster vs. Benetton Treviso (Friday 7^th September K.O. 8.00 @ Thomond Park)

Munster showed by their victory over Edinburgh that they mean business this season. The “Big Red Machine” has rediscovered its mojo. Howlett as skipper and the centre partnership of Laulala and Downey, have added real steel and guile to the Munster midfield and make them a much less predictable team. Playing at Thomond Park always gives the Munster team a boost and often succeeds in intimidating the opposition. Treviso will be no mugs and they showed last week against the Ospreys that they have the pack to stand up to most teams, but the physicality this Munster team will bring on Friday will be simply too much for them. The Treviso centres are not the most astute of defenders and they will be in for a torrid time without the benefit of conditions to hide behind. The pace and power of Munster will be too much for them; Munster will remember their surprise defeat at the Stadio Monigo last season and will be looking to avenge it.

Prediction: Munster by 15 points

Glasgow warriors vs. Llanelli Scarlets (Friday 7^th September K.O. 7.35 @ Scotstoun)

This could well be the match of the weekend. Glasgow is a formidable team and this will be their first competitive game at the Scotstoun stadium and after the combative defeat to Ulster last week they will be eager to get their season started. They will be in no mood to give the Scarlets easy points. Indiscipline cost them dearly and the senior players like Cuister and Kellock will have drummed into the warriors that they simply cannot do that on Friday or the Scarlets could cut them to pieces. Sean Lamont, an ex-scarlet will do his best to warn his new team mates of the formidable threats the Scarlets backs can pose. The Scarlets’ hammering of a weak Leinster side will have done them no favours for the trip to Glasgow and Townsend will ensure that his team is fired up for the game. But, the Scarlets will travel with confidence and real belief in their ability, on times they can be irresistible. North, Knoyle, Liam Williams et al bring a combination of pace, power and precision that can leave opponents grasping at thin air. They appear to be able to score tries at will. The Scarlets pack has been considerable strengthened on paper and this is the sort of game that can confirm or deny the reality of that assertion. There can be no doubt that if Glasgow denies the Scarlets a platform they will probably have enough to win a close game. But, there is an edge about the Scarlets, Simon Easterby has quickly emerged as a claver coach and they will travel to Scotland with realistic aspirations.

Prediction: A very close call, Glasgow Warriors by 3 points

Zebre vs. Connacht (Friday 7^th September K.O. 7.05 @ Stadio XXV Aprile)

Zebre will be desperate to make a statement following the heavy defeat to Newport Gwent Dragons last week. They want to show that they are made of sterner stuff than the Aironi team they replaced. The Italian RFU has laudably indicated that they want the Zebre team to be made up of Italian rugby players and not foreign imports. But, as can be seen by the fortunes of the national side it is not easy to set up a winning team. The harsh lessons of Rodney Parade can be used as a spur for this game but it will not be sufficient. Connacht will come to Italy smarting from their defeat to the Blues, well aware that they were the architects of their own demise and will see this match as a chance of redemption.

There can be no doubt that Zebre will give of their all in front of what promises to be good crowd in Parma but, Connacht will just have enough to beat them, if they can eradicate the errors that so marred their performance last Saturday. If they do not, then Zebre could just snatch it.

Prediction: Connacht by 5 points

Leinster vs. Newport Gwent Dragons (Saturday 8^th September K.O. 6.15 @ the RDS)

Joe Schmidt is a wily campaigner and knows that the League will be a marathon not a sprint, it might well not be his priority, but the heavy comprehensive defeat by the Scarlets will have hurt. The Leinster players will have worked hard in training this week. As Jonno Gibbes, the Assistant coach put it, “We have to react!” His general demeanour though was disappointment at the supine display of the Leinster forwards, and he was impressed by the Dragons against the Zebre. There is a good chance Isaac Boss will not be available and the mercurial Donnacha Ryan, put that alongside the unavailability of the province’s international contingent and Gibbes is probably right to be worried.

The Dragons have gone about their business professionally and quietly enjoying the best pre-season of the Welsh regions and will not be overawed by the prospect of playing Leinster at the RDS; Darren Edwards will see this as a very good time to be playing the European champions. They will want to maintain their momentum from last week and will look to bully and suppress the Leinster pack although bolstered by the return of Cullen will be sadly lacking in terms of nous and dog. If the Dragons can replicate their form of the first half against the Zebre they will win.

Prediction: Newport Gwent Dragons by 3

Ospreys vs. Ulster (Saturday 8^th September K.O. 6.30 @ the Liberty Stadium)

Ospreys know that they can play better than they did against Treviso, and they will want to get that disastrous game out of their system against Ulster on Saturday night. Ulster themselves will be looking for a more complete performance than they delivered against Glasgow. This could be a cracker of a game. If ospreys can play their smart pacey off loading game they will have too much for Ulster. But they will need to be much more accurate and dynamic up front and their scrum will be tested by the exceptional Ulster front row. On the other hand surely they cannot be as bad again? Ulster will be confident that they will be able to control possession for large tracts of time, their issue will be are they adept enough to use it and break down the well organised defensive patterns Ospreys use.

Prediction: Ospreys by 10


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Warren Gatland's first task

Yesterday the worst secret in rugby was finally out in the open with the appointment of Warren Gatland as the British and Irish lions coach for the 2013 tour to Australia. Almost immediately the speculation about players, test teams erupted, quite rightly Gatland himself saw that as premature his priority is to quickly get in place the best and most appropriate backroom staff that he possibly can. After a long coaching career in the Northern Hemisphere he will already have a long list of coaches and people he admires, respects and more significantly that he can work with, and that he can be sure that will put aside parochial national differences for the good of a polyglot British and Irish lions touring party.

When it comes to sources of good counsel Gatland is well aware that he has many experienced people to call upon. He has already said that he will talk to Graham Henry but the greatest Lion’s coach of all will be his first port of call; Sir Ian McGeehan’s mobile number  will be on speed dial; he may even choose to speak to the guru Sir Clive Woodward you can be sure that Gatland will leave no stone unturned. His priority over the next couple of weeks will not be the test team, perhaps not even the squad but managing to secure the services of the best coaches, analysts, medical staff that he can. Players will already put themselves under pressure to perform and Gatland and his selectors will realise that form fluctuates, there will be injuries and over the season new players emerge. He will look beyond the autumn internationals, the Six nations and watch players in the Aviva, the RaboDirect and the Super 14 as well. To do this properly will need lots of eyes and he will need to consider the make up of the party e.g. how many back row players to take? His relationship with Andy Irvine will be critical, he already knows Gerald Davies from Wales and the Lions in 2009 and that will ensure that proper chain of commend and demarcation of responsibilities will be easily established. Deciding on the composition of the rest of his team might not be so straightforward and it is here that Gatland will need to be aware of avoiding the accusation of Welsh bias, yet he will naturally want to stick with what and who he knows.

An international rugby team now has a vast panel of coaches, specialists and others with specific roles;

• Strength, conditioning and fitness
• Medical, doctor, physio, psychologist, sight, movement/gait analysis
• Notational analysis, sports science, media, legal, nutrition, chef

In terms of the game itself there are several broad headings that Gatland might consider; offence, defence, forwards, skills and yet even these can be broken down into other more specific areas, into individual as well as corporate areas e.g. the Line-out; strategy, calls, moves, movement, lifting, blocking, driving maul and of course the essential skill of throwing in! So, other coaches that might enter the equation might be for kicking, scrum, jackalling and tackling. All will need to fit into Gatland’s master plan that he will create to beat the Wallabies.

Perhaps his greatest difficulty will be the apparent plethora of professional high quality people he can select from. Given that Shaun Edwards is a shoo in for the role of Defence and Skills coach the next critical appointment will be Offence. The Wallabies back line on its day can be a fantastic unit capable of devastating any team so the choice of the Offence/Attacking coach will certainly be exercising Gatland’s mind. He will be considering the credentials of Joe Schmidt of Leinster very carefully and he knows the capabilities of Robert Howley very well but a dark horse for this position could be Alex King. He is doing a superb job at Clermont in the Super 14 and he played his best rugby under the tutelage of Gatland and Edwards at Wasps. The forward coach is not so easy. Gatland will bring a considerable influence here, and so he might well seek to divide the responsibilities here on a unit basis. Graham Rowntree has rightly built for himself an excellent reputation here. Gatland could do worse than ask Andy Robinson for assistance here; Scotland’s defeat of the Wallabies was not just based on rock solid defence and a tropical storm Robinson had worked out how to deny the wallaby’s ball. No-one understands back-row play better and that is the area that will be crucial to securing a Lions’ victory.

So, Gatland will not have entered the premature debate about the Lions’ test side he will have been thinking about his coaching panel and how he can use them to get the best out of the players. This is not an easy job, but Gatland set his stall out to get it, and he knows what it will take to be Lions coach to win a test series since the Lions of 1997.

http://www.therugbyblog.co.uk/

Round up of RaboDirect Pro12 Round 1

Benetton Treviso 12 Ospreys 6

Italian storms battered the Stadio Monigo and destroyed the Osprey’s hopes of a winning start to their campaign to retain the Championship. The Ospreys fielded a strong team with an experienced spine but there was a lack of precision about them, as if they were unable to absorb the physicality their opponents brought to the game. Indeed this defeat had a sense of déjà vu about it, once again the Ospreys found a way to secure defeat out of the jaws of victory. Sure, the disappointing dismissal of Ian Evans had an influence on the game. But, the Ospreys butchered three golden opportunities to score a try, and missed three kicks at goal. Add to that Treviso played for twenty minutes of the match down to fourteen men themselves and the Ospreys have only themselves to blame.

Of greater concern than the loss Tandy and his staff must have been disappointed by the lack of potency of the scrum and the distressing number of turnovers spilled by the team. Biggar did his best to galvanise the players around him, Beck threatened but could not quite break free and Dirksen had few opportunities. All in all a disappointing trip to Northern Italy for the champions and a big boost to Treviso, who mastered the conditions and the Ospreys pack.

Newport Gwent Dragons 37 Zebre 6

This was just the positive start the Dragons could have wished for as the newcomers to the Rabo, Zebre, were put to the sword in a swashbuckling first half display. Dan Evans made the type of debut a player dream of, scoring two tries and playing with ease and accuracy. Tom Prydie also played well showing himself to be a great threat in open play and kicking his goals. By halftime with four tries scored and playing with real confidence the job was done. What was disappointing the Dragons with the Zebre at their mercy could only score three more points in the second half. There will be greater challenges ahead but Dragons can be very happy with their first game. For the Zebre it looks like it will be a long hard season.

Ulster 18 Glasgow Warriors 10

Glasgow brought their tough uncompromising game to Ravenhill and stood up to the Ulster onslaught very well displaying real courage and tenacity. For long periods of the game there was very little to choose between the sides as Glasgow coped well with smothering the Ulster attacks. But, Ulster knows how to win close games and when an opportunity presents itself they generally take it. So when Glasgow went down to fourteen men they struck twice, quickly built a 15 to 3 lead and it was too far for Glasgow to come back. Particularly potent for the Ulstermen were their wingers Gilroy and Allen the try scorers. Both sides will take something from the game and will move onto next week with some confidence.

Edinburgh 18 Munster 23

Visser, last season’s top try scorer in the Rabo showed with a superb hat-trick of tries that he going to be just as deadly this season but despite his efforts Edinburgh still lost an exciting game. Munster scored two well worked tries themselves by Keatley and O’Dea and kept a characteristically tight hold on the game. As a declaration of intent by the Red Machine this was a very positive start.

Scarlets 45 Leinster 20

A superb and well deserved victory for the Scarlets borne out a desire to play fast attacking rugby that left a young and depleted Leinster side well beaten. Seven tries tells its own story. For the Scarlets George North was at times completely unplayable, scored two tries and cut the Leinster defence on several other occasions. The new second row pairing of Earle and Kelly provided real impetus up front and Aled Thomas controlled the game’s tempo very well.

Connacht 9 Cardiff Blues 13

This is the type of victory that can set the tone for a season and facing similar conditions to the Ospreys the Blues played them much more astutely and deservedly took their reward.

Cardiff used the wind and rain well in the first half to turnaround 13 points to the good. Their try was scored by the excellent teenage scrum half Jones and Sweeney kicked the goals. But, in the second half Connacht failed to follow Cardiff’s example and wasted several chances through a combination of poor handling and lack of accuracy. In particular Cardiff displayed an excellent reading of the Connacht line-out and pinched several crucial throws.

A solid 4 points for Cardiff and they can look forward to next week’s game against Edinburgh with some optimism.

Talking points

Discipline was supposed to be the watchword of so many of the teams, do not give away silly penalties, yellow cards to be strenuously avoided and work with the referee not upset him. From the first round of matches it is easy to conclude that several players only pay lip service to this. Ian Evans being ignominiously sent off was crucial to his team and was made worse by Tandy and AWJ pre-game assertions that they were determined to be more disciplined. Referees across the piece have been given the remit for zero tolerance and to keep the game flowing. What teams want is consistency and the Ospreys and Glasgow now realise that errors of judgement could be very costly indeed. On the other hand consistency was not so easy to spot in Galway, where the penalty count was 13 to 4 in the second half in Connacht’s favour, yet Cardiff did not lose a man.

The new rules at the scrum seemed to lead to more controlled confrontation, sped up the process and there were significantly less collapses. On the other hand all matches were marred by the referees once again ignoring the “Not straight” rule. This leads to frustration from the crowd and to a lesser extent from the players that have been forced to phlegmatically accept that there is not an even contest for the ball.

Performance of the Weekend   

There are several contenders for this accolade;

• Munster’s victory at Murrayfield, away wins are always crucial
• Cardiff’s defensive heroics, in the appalling weather of Galway
• Scarlet’s comprehensive drubbing of Leinster
• Treviso’s unexpected win over the champions

The team who performed well above expectations though to record a famous win and winner of the performance of the week is: Cardiff Blues.

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As regards my own predictions I managed to get 4/6 correct. Not as good as I would have liked but the Ospreys let me down and the Blues played with far more determination than last season.