Wales has to manage expectations

 

 

“Expectation is at the root of all heartache”- Shakespeare/Welsh rugby supporter

 

On Saturday Wales and South Africa will face each other in the midst of a media frenzy of disappointment and scathing criticism. The quality of rugby played by them during the autumn internationals has been so uninspiring it has been seen as symptomatic of the terminal decline of Welsh and South African rugby. Allister Coetzee the coach of SA is fighting for his job and has promised to beat Wales ‘at all costs’ and Howley of Wales is desperately seeking the credibility to prove that he is the anointed successor of Gatland.

For Wales there is a sense that the country is being left behind, that the rugby they are playing has had its day. The statistics support the notion that since 2013 Wales has been enduring a slow but steady decline. Many of the players have not changed since 2011; although hugely experienced, they do not look capable of bringing anything new to their game. Yet, in Liam Williams, George North, Scott Williams and Gareth Davies, Wales possess some of the best runners and finishers in world rugby but they are failing to live up to the expectations of supporters. Wales will play in the familiar surroundings of the Principality stadium and that should be a bubbling cauldron of national ferocity and desire against a SA low on confidence and morale, but tragically most Welsh supporters expect a loss. Yes, SA will be desperate to win, to salvage some pride from what is shaping up to be their most disastrous tour ever. Luckily SA are a side as easy as Wales have apparently become to work out, as Nick Mallet, ex SA coach and now pundit said on Saturday, ‘Springbok attacks are too simplistic, all you need to stop them is to be brave. Match the Bok physicality and there is not much left.’ Despite this it has to be noted that Wales have faced SA 31 times and won only twice. This will, and should, reinforce the Springbok’s belief that they can win this match. But if Wales can match their famed physicality, and what they have failed to show so far in the autumn is not courage or commitment rather composure and assuredness under pressure, the ability to run into space rather than the opposition then this a match Wales certainly have the talent to win.

 However tempting it is for Howley and his coterie of coaches to circle the wagons they must not. Success for Wales will come from taking heart from the positive approach shown by both Scotland and Ireland, who have rattled sides by their willingness to attack at pace and in numbers. There are many aspects of Wales’ recent play that has been disappointing, the forwards have lacked devil, have not carried well and exhibited poor awareness at the breakdown in creating the quick ball with which the backs need to attack. Japan and Australia exposed this naivety and lack of organisation repeatedly and ruthlessly. SA will be just as much of a challenge. There is so much riding on this game for both sides and the winner that will emerge will be the one that maintains the high quality of their play under pressure and clinically takes their chances. What Wales will need to do is to avoid the inevitable brutal collisions that the Springboks will be desperate for and look to finesse their way through a crowded midfield into the spaces beyond the gainline.

SA shorn of many of its stars, including the totemic Eben Etzebeth, will find it difficult to change from their traditional confrontational approach and this should allow Howley to work out a game plan to circumvent it. On Saturday Howley and several of the players need to stand up and be counted and show the type of side Wales can be under his tutelage. When he announces his selection for the match it should show what he believes the team could do and show that it is really his team. If he decides to stick with the tried and tested expectations will be low. But if he is brave and selects the mercurial Sam Davies at 10, Scott Williams and a back row of Moriaty, Faletau, Tirpuric and with Warburton to come off the bench then expectations will rise and so crucially will the risks but more significantly so will the chance of high rewards.

 

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Can Wales finally beat the Wallabies?

Can Wales finally beat the Wallabies?

 

Wales v Australia 5th November 2016 k.o. 2.30pm

 

 

     Saturday 5th November will be a day of reckoning for Wales. It could be the start of a new era building upon the flickers of improvement and ambition glimpsed in New Zealand or will the team fall back to the formula of the 6N that has brought success in that championship but patently failed against the Southern Hemisphere teams. What makes this test match so intriguing is the sense that the Wallabies are perceived as being not up to their usual high standards. Their recent defeats in 6 out of 9 matches does not tell the whole story; they were competitive in every match they played, performing with grit and edge but lacked the fluency of old. Despite their protestations there is an air of vulnerability around them.

For Wales to win they must dominate these Wallabies from the first whistle, not take a backward step and ensure that everyone in the team does the basics well. Despite the injuries and enforced absences Wales can field a settled and experienced side. But, this is a double edged sword, it means that the Wallabies know what to expect and they will be confident that they can contain Wales. If the Wales’ front 5 can establish a hold over the Australian pack and deny space to their back row then the carrying power of Owens, Davies, Charteris and Moriaty will allow the in-form Tirpuric to weave his magic and with the irrepressible Webb, Wales will surely prosper. On the other hand Cheika has the judgement to ensure that the Australian forwards will front up and they will attempt to bully and manhandle the Welsh pack. They possess a strong scrummaging front row under the tutelage of ex-Argentine hooker Mario Ledesma, Scott Sio, Stephen Moore and Sekope Kepu and are unlikely to come off second best against their Welsh counterparts. The Wallabies have also unearthed a core of very big men in the back five who can all run, jump and tackle: 6’10 120kgs Rory Arnold, 6’8 122kgs Adam Coleman and 6’4 123kgs no.8 Lopeti Timani. They have the makings of a pack to be reckoned with. The selection of Pocock at 6 is not a gamble even though he has not played international rugby in that position; he is a world class player and will not let his country down. They will be all knees, elbows and feet at the breakdown and the contest there will not be for the faint hearted and referee Craig Joubert will have a crucial role. With Halfpenny returning for Wales Australia know that they will have to keep their penalty count down or they will see Wales keeping the scoreboard ticking over.

Nick Evans in last week’s Sunday Times talked about preferring a ball carrying 12 outside him and in Jamie Roberts Wales possess one of the best in the world. Last season was not, however, one of his best and Howley needs to have planned how Wales should use him to the side’s best advantage; as a decoy, perhaps, even allowing him to pass but critically whoever is selected to play at 10 must play on the gainline to speed up the game and give Roberts the chance to burst through. Biggar is to start, but the prospect of the exciting Sam Davies coming off the bench could see Wales play a far faster game. Davies loves to play in the heavy traffic and will bring players on to his flat pass at speed and utilising Roberts and Davies who, always a threat, should test the Wallabies’ resolve by attacking the wider channels and examine the defensive quality of the Australian midfield. On the wings Wales have a clear edge and if North and Cuthbert get some space they will score tries.

The absence of AWJ will be sorely felt but in Charteris Wales have an excellent battle hardened second row to come in and the set piece and ball carrying of the Welsh forwards will not have been weakened in the slightest. Australia have not become a bad side overnight and this promises to be a fantastic contest, they have good players throughout the team; Folau, Hooper and Pocock would grace any side. Any side that has Israel Folau in it will run hard, just ask the coach! They will not lack the incentive to win the game; having already announced that their ambition is to achieve a Grand Slam, to lose the first game would certainly put a dint in that target.

Despite the loss of influential players Wales still have the personnel with which to win this test match and to do so in a manner that could take the rugby world by surprise. The return of Halfpenny, the Howley factor freed from Gatland’s pragmatism and the prospect for the Welsh players of putting down an early marker for the Lions will all help. Wales need to move on from NZ and show that they now have the ‘All Court’ game to beat any team, playing at pace and showing they too can be relentless and maintain a high tempo and, if needed, go up a gear to put sides away by clinically taking any of the opportunities on offer.

But the real motivation for these Welsh players is to lose the unwelcome epithet of being constantly seen as ‘the nearly men’.

 

Prediction: Wales to win by 3 - 10 points

 

 

Wales v Australia

“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it”

 

This quote, by George Santayana the Spanish philosopher, neatly sums up Wales’ last eleven matches against the Wallabies where they have lost all of the matches narrowly and often in the last few minutes of the game. Can they break this hold the Australian rugby team appears to have over them? They will only do so if they manage to successfully change their mind-set. Despite Australia’s mediocre season, which began with a 3-0 test series loss to England, they will go into Saturday’s game as favourites and confident of a win. Wales are seen by many pundits as simply unable to beat teams from the southern hemisphere. They have a point; Wales’ record in the autumn is dismal with a 40% win record. If Wales are to live up to their exhortations as potential winners of the Rugby World Cup then they need to start on Saturday against the 2016 Wallabies with a triumph.

If the Wallabies could have chosen who to play first on this Grand Slam tour then Cheika and his players would have plumped for Wales. They have not tasted defeat to Wales since 2008. Australia will expect to win and if Howley’s team are going to deny them that victory then they will have to show that they have learnt the lessons of their history. International sport, rugby in particular, depends on small margins to secure a win and this is often done by optimising the mental preparation of the team. There can be no doubt that Wales possess the players to win, and to win well, but to accomplish their task they will need to establish a psychological as well as physical dominance over the Wallabies. The recent heart breaking defeats should be utilised to show what needs to be done differently.  Seeing chances with clarity, is one thing, taking them clinically is another, retaining composure in the eye of the storm will be what makes the crucial difference.

On Saturday, in what will be a cauldron of pressure and expectation, the side that will emerge victorious will be the one that makes and executes the correct choices precisely and allows them to exert some control over the way that decisions are made at the critical moments. The coaches will then know if the essential realistic pressure they put the players under in the pre-match training sessions has paid dividends. The pundit Martyn Williams spoke of Wales not getting up to speed until the 3^rd or 4^th game of the autumn international series; this sounds like an excuse not worthy of international players. It also begs the question why has the WRU agreed to play a Tier 1 nation first up? Why not invite Georgia to play if Wales can’t raise their game from the off? Perhaps more pertinently what does it say about the quality of the Pro12 league or the training the players do in camp before the first game? Clearly Wales will have to overcome this handicap as well as whatever the Wallabies will throw at them.

Without their talismanic captain, Sam Warburton, the more experienced players will need to stand up and be counted and give a clear focus and lead on the pitch, show what they have learnt and embrace the responsibility. As Michael Cheika nurses his shattered shoulder he will still have been scheming and plotting as to how he can secure a Wallabies win. Much of his approach will come from his familiarity with this Welsh side and how they will play and that will give confidence to him, his players and coaches. But if Howley has learnt from the recent tour to NZ then he could surprise these Wallabies by having the self-assurance to allow the players to work out how to win this match. Cheika has circled the waggons, piqued by what he has translated as the “disrespect” his players have been shown and they will play to a rugged intense game plan attempting to manhandle the Welsh forwards and create space for his back row to thrive. If, though, Wales resolve to play a smarter game and show that they have developed a style of play which attacks with skill and pace and takes chances, rather than seeking the safety-first option, then they could shock the Wallabies who could well be guilty of complacency from their own analysis of the recent history between the two sides.

Eddie Jones, whose Midas touch with the England side could be under severe threat over the coming weeks as he deals with a crippling injury list, has already talked about getting the psychology right for the SA match and Howley needs to have spent as much time as he can on getting the players’ minds right for the challenge on the 5th November as working with the ball. Training will have been intense but will it have been representative? Will players have been asked to perform their skills and decision making when they are at their most fatigued? No one doubts the players’ levels of motivation. Matches though are not won by desire alone but by the players who keep their heads and seize their chances. Howley and his coaching team have to have empowered the players to play what they see in front of them and back themselves to be able to think clearly and correctly under pressure, executing the skills they possess and doing the simple things well and ensure that they prepared for the unexpected and can respond appropriately.

 For Howley to be realistic in his aspirations to become Gatland’s successor then this is his best opportunity to show how Wales can be different and successful under his generalship.

 

Games for the weekend 16^th-17^th September 2016

 

Scarlets v Ulster, Friday 16^th September @ Kingspan Stadium k.o.19.05

 

Scarlets have not become a bad side overnight but two lacklustre performances and subsequent defeats make the prospect of visiting an unbeaten Ulster team less than enticing. Up front the pack has, so far, failed to fire and play with the dynamism necessary to unleash the much vaunted Scarlets’ backline. The set piece lacks ballast and is too easily targeted by the opposition, leading to penalties, turn overs and loss of field positon. Injuries and illness have not helped and Pivac should not be tempted to rush these players back although playing a rampant Ulster side on Friday evening will be a severe test, particularly as it looks as Ulster will be considerably strengthened for the game with arguably the most influential player in the league to deal with in Charles Piutau.

Prop Rodney Ah You, signed from Connacht, the 27 year old tight-head prop will make his competitive home debut on Friday. Craig Gilroy is set to return to Ulster duty as well, while the side is also likely to welcome back other internationals: Andrew Trimble, Paddy Jackson and Iain Henderson are among the Ireland players who could be in contention to make their competitive season's debuts in the Kingspan Stadium clash. All three have been rested for the opening two games after being involved in Ireland's summer tour of South Africa. This will make the Scarlets’ task all the more difficult.

The Kingspan Stadium is a bear pit of a ground and the Scarlets will need to start well and try to keep the crowd quiet; never an easy task. ‘If’ the Scarlets’ forwards do manage to front up and gain some good ball there is no doubt that they possess the players to do some serious damage and maybe repeat last season’s victory. However, it’s a huge ‘If’.

 

Prediction: Ulster to win by 10 to 15 points.

 

 

Cardiff Blues v Glasgow Warriors, Friday 16^th September @ Cardiff Arms Park k.o. 19.00

 

Glasgow will arrive at the Arms Park with momentum following two bonus point victories and with Tom Seymour in devastating form on the wing, after scoring 4 tries last weekend. They will probably start as favourites. The Blues, however, have made a strong start themselves and have shown some exceptional form and this is certainly not a “gimme” for Glasgow. Cardiff’s heavy victory over a poor Edinburgh side was followed up with last week’s well-constructed win away at Munster showing that Danny Wilson’s side have matured considerably from last season. He has made some changes for the game naming Josh Turnbull and Sam Warburton to come into a reshuffled pack but placing Nick Williams on the bench, could be a tactical stroke of genius when he could come on in the last 20 minutes and create mayhem. Given the prospect of the largest crowd seen at a Pro12 league game at the Arm’s Park for some time this could be the game of the weekend.

Cardiff have a pleasing variety to their attack and in Nick Williams, a superb signing for the region, they have developed a formidable pragmatic approach to their game. When the chance to attack is on they take it but when there are hard yards necessary they now have the personnel to grunt it out. Anscombe is beginning to reveal his true potential with soft hands, excellent distribution and a howitzer boot. Plus there are the added dimensions in the backs of Willis Halaholo and Matthew Morgan, which allows the Blues to attack from deep, not to mention the menace of wingers James and Cuthbert. Glasgow will have to be on their mettle to contain these multiple threats. The Blues will be buoyed by the fact that Glasgow gave away three tries against Leinster and they can be opened up. Cardiff have under the shrewd guidance of Graham Stedman tightened up their defence and will go into this game believing they can go to the next level in terms of performance.

A Cardiff victory would be a surprise yet not an unlikely event. Glasgow will have to play very well to win.

 

Prediction: Cardiff Blues to win by 3 to 5 points.

 

 

Newport Gwent Dragons v Munster, Saturday 17^th September @ Rodney Parade k.o. 17.15

 

It appears that all is not well at Rodney Parade, with the players voicing their unhappiness at the views of their paying public and their demands that the team play with a bit more adventure and the enterprise that coach Kingsley Jones has promised. The team appear to be stuck in a rut and they have to pull themselves out of it. Losing to Ulster was not a disgrace and being pilloried for not putting the Zebre team to the sword is, in some respects, unfair. Yet to complain about your supporters is not a clever thing to do.

It needs to be remembered that the Zebre required a much improved performance themselves after their heavy defeat to the Ospreys; they are playing for their livelihoods as well. That said, the Dragons appear under powered up front, they have talented and pacey backs but they need to be given the space to perform. Overall the age of the team means they need to grow on the field and this lack of maturity can occasionally lead to errors and misjudgements.

Probably playing Munster, hurting after last week’s unexpected defeat to the Blues, would not at first sight be the ideal team for the Dragons to be playing. Yet it gives them a real chance at exoneration and presents them with a target all week in training. They have a chance to prove people wrong on Saturday and the Dragons have a track record of raising their game in adversity.

In Hallam Amos they have an excellent player and the team could be strengthened by wings Ashley Hewitt and Tom Prydie returning and, with scrum half Pretorius calling the shots, they could test Munster. It is hard, though, not to see anything but a Munster win, they simply have too many weapons and this will result in another difficult press conference for coach Kingsley Jones.

 

Prediction: Munster to win by 10 to 12 points

 

 

Ospreys v Treviso, Saturday 17^th September @ Liberty Stadium k.o. 19.35

 

On paper this looks like an easy victory for the Ospreys who have made a great start to the Pro12 with two bonus point victories. Yet they have not always found it easy against Treviso who are well coached by the experienced Kieran Crowley. But Ospreys are playing well and they are playing with confidence, power and accuracy. Sam Davies at no.10 has made an outstanding start to the season and he is really making the Ospreys hum. He links well with Webb and plays close up to the gain line bringing his partners in crime into the game at pace and on the front foot. He is a constant threat, prepared to carry the ball when needed or use his massive left boot to get the team out of trouble.

Perhaps most pleasing has been the ability of the pack to hold onto the ball for long periods to crank up the pressure. They have also employed their big ball carriers to gain the hard yards, and they have relished the task. The driving maul is another formidable weapon that they have utilised to turn pressure into points. Tirpuric has returned to his best form, running fantastic lines, supporting intelligently and making an impact whenever he becomes involved. With Webb, Davies and Evans in the backline playing with fluency and threat there is a good chance that the Ospreys could secure another bonus point win, as Treviso will find it hard to live with the pace and tempo the Ospreys will impose on them.

 

Prediction: Ospreys to win by 15 - 20 points

 

 

New Zealand v South Africa, Saturday 17^th September @ AMI Stadium, Christchurch k.o. 07.35 GMT

 

The general impression is that with the extent of the Springbok’s level of transition this should be a routine victory for the All Blacks as they have endured two consecutive losses and been dismissed by several pundits as a “shambles”. This is unfair; no SA side lacks heart, commitment or skill but it is clear that they are finding it difficult to adjust to the new regime and new rules they have to follow.

NZ are too experienced and wily to be taken in by the expectations that all they will have to do is turn up to win. On the other hand it is very difficult to see any other result rather than a comprehensive NZ victory. The win over a competitive Argentina led by the irrepressible Beauden Barrett, Ben Smith, and Julian Savea,  who enjoyed his best game of 2016, points to a side brimming with confidence and ability. The Springboks, meanwhile, barely troubled the Wallabies after scoring two early five-pointers from turnover ball; they were then left to lament some poor discipline as Australia came away with a six-point win.

SA will play with their usual vigour but NZ will overwhelm them in the last twenty minutes.

 

Prediction: NZ to win by 15 points

 

 

Australia v Argentina, Saturday 17^th September @ Perth k.o. 11.05 GMT

 

The Wallabies confront an improved Argentina on Saturday as they look to keep the winning habit after finally ending a six-match losing streak. Michael Cheika's side brought up their first win of the year after overcoming South Africa 23 -17 last week, and they will be chasing further improvement against the Pumas. But Argentina will be no pushovers in Perth. The Pumas conquered South Africa 26 - 24 last month in Salta, their first home win over the Springboks, and they also gave New Zealand problems last week before the All Blacks powered away in the final half-hour.

 

Prediction: Argentina to win by 3 - 5 points