The Orange Top14 – “Greed before success!

Today in Paris to great fanfare the juggernaut of the Orange Top14 for the season 2014/15 is officially launched. Despite the pomp and grandeur there are signs that all is not well with the “cash cow” of French rugby. Although many of the game’s stellar players frequent its corpulent ranks, many of the matches turn into sterile attritional games dominated by the forwards and often one paced. Devoid of innovation and inspiration, Orange Top14 has evolved into a competition with little to enthuse about. That's what it has become - a giant exercise of endurance and will-power to get through it and still care by the end.

The season is an endurance race for players, administrators, owners and supporters lasting from mid-August until early June. There are 392 league games, then play offs, semi-finals and lastly the Grand Final. There are great celebrations for the team that lift the coveted ‘Le bouclier de Brennus’. So much rugby played and yet so little of it can be remembered.The players are flogged across France and injuries so common that teams can augment their vast squads with “Medical Jokers”. The players are earning substantial sums but they certainly earn their corn. Additionally many players will have international commitments and the new European competition to add to their workload, no wonder Saint André has insisted upon only 34 games for his selected players. Although, his concerns about the number of foreign players plying their lucrative trade in France have often caused him to lose his temper, but in fact the number of foreign players is on the wane – only 34 recruited to the Top 14 for the 2014-15 season, compared to 58 last season, 48 in 2012-13 and 61 in 2011-12.The explanation is twofold. Firstly, clubs have one eye on the JIFF (Joueurs Issus des Filières de Formation) rules that for the 2014-15 season will remain the same as last season. So 55% of each club’s squad must be JIFFs – a player who before the age of 21 has spent either three seasons at a French club’s youth academy or five seasons licensed to play in France.

But from 2015-16 the rules become tighter with the 55% figure still in force but also a fine levied against clubs that fail to field a match-day squad containing a minimum of 12 JIFFs. The season after (2016-17), clubs will have to field at least 14 JIFF players for each game. Consequently clubs have reined in their overseas signings to comply with regulations. The trend this summer has been for clubs to sign young players as ‘espoirs’ as this category is not included in the salary cap.

Number of overseas signings per club 2014-15 Grenoble: 6. Montpellier: 5. La Rochelle: 4. Toulon, Oyonnax, Lyon & Clermont: 3. Brive, Toulouse & Racing Metro: 2. Stade Francais: 1. Bayonne, Castres & Bordeaux-Begles: 0.

Where are they from? New Zealand: 11. South Africa: 8. Australia: 6. Wales: 2. Fiji: 2. England: 2. Ireland: 1. Italy: 1. Fiji: 1.

What position? Props: 5. Hookers: 2. Second rows: 6. Back rows: 4. Scrum-halves: 1. Fly-halves: 3. Wingers: 5. Centres: 4. Full-backs

The overwhelming source of the Orange Top14’s wealth comes from TV. But, worryingly for the clubs the Top 14's blockbuster €355 million television deal is under threat after the French Competition Authority decided that Canal+ were awarded exclusive rights in an unfair manner. Subscription sports channel BeIN Sports was behind the complaint, accusing the LNR and Canal+ of excluding them from the bidding process, and they were supported by the Competition Authority.

However there appears to be a long legal battle in store, “This decision is unjustified, incongruous and open to criticism," LNR boss Paul Goze told Midi Olympique.

While this decision would not seem to have a major impact on the financial heavyweights of the Top 14, some of the smaller clubs in France could feel the squeeze. "This decision is very worrying for the smaller clubs. With the five-year deal we were guaranteed some visibility and it allowed us to put in place short and medium-term projects," explained Brive Vice-President Simon Gilham.

In France this might be the moment to consider what would be best for the game as a whole as France’s international rugby team are in the midst of a very real crisis. Perhaps, a glance across the Channel would be wise for the FFR, not at the Aviva premiership but a closer examination of the impact of the Barclays Premiership on the fortunes of the English soccer team. Purportedly the richest soccer league in the world yet how did England perform in the recent World Cup in Brazil? Saint André has been blaming the Top 14, the clubs, the players’ attitudes and the fixture list for France’s malaise; France’s problems go far deeper than the length of the Top 14 season. The style of the rugby played in the championship might be more relevant, with too many games bedeviled by the conservatism of their coaches. Is it any wonder that French internationals struggle to adapt to the faster pace of Test match rugby? Yes, Toulon won the Heineken Cup – albeit with a starting XV containing three Frenchman – but look at what happened to Clermont in the semi-final when Saracens destroyed them in a one sided match.

Friday August 15^th sees the first game in Bayonne when they take on the mighty Toulon. The sense of the “Esprit de Cloche” will resound from the stands but it will be much harder to identify on the field as the players will be playing for their living or a new contract. France might possess the wealthiest rugby union league in the world but it is not the most compelling or enjoyable. Somewhere French rugby has lost its soul and drastic medicine is going to be needed to rekindle the cries of” En vie le Bleus” ringing from the stands of the majestic Stade de France.

 http://lastwordonsports.com/2014/08/12/the-orange-top14-greed-before-success/

 

“France-…Nation Mineure”.

“France-…Nation Mineure”.

Philippe Saint André was a popular choice to succeed the hapless Marc Lièvremont in 2011. The French rugby public was confident that he could rejuvenate the French national side. But, after two lacklustre 6 Nations campaigns and the 3-0, whitewash in Australia the Midi Olympique christened France, “Nation Mineure”, a minor nation. France’s international rugby side, a year out from the Rugby World Cup, are in crisis and the national coach is under pressure from all sides.

Saint André is an aristocrat of French rugby, multiple trophy winner, scorer of legendary tries a true icon of the game. He has begun to lose the support of the French rugby public supporters’ expectation and anticipation has been replaced by a leaden reality. At no point has Saint André accepted any culpability for the team’s poor results. Yet, with a win record of 40% he has a worse record than any of his predecessors. He has consistently blamed the players never blamed himself for being unable to motivate his players, for fielding teams who lack direction, structure and creation, and for making poor selections and a particular target has been the number of foreign players in the Orange Top14. Strangely he seems to forget that a dozen or so of those players he signed into the league while coach of RC Toulon. But, the league has accepted a limit on how many games their French players can play in a season (34), limits on the number of foreign players and the extended release of players for preparatory camps with the national side. For the first time Saint Andre has a camp in September to prepare for the November internationals. His room for manouvere is narrowing. Despite this there is a growing sense of disquiet that he is operating out of his depth.

The “Spoiled brats of 2011” have largely been removed yet nothing has really changed, there is a sense of inertia, déjà vu around the team. Saint André’s diatribe against the Top14 is a broken record of a man unable to change his mindset or more crucially the mindset of the team. France’s resources are huge, the game awash with money and talent, yet both Wales and Ireland have performed much better than France with considerably less assets. France possesses world class players across the pitch; Dusatoir, Nyanga, Huget, Fofana, Medard to name a few, yet Saint André cannot get the best out of them. Perhaps, this can best be explained by his handling of the accomplished Montpellier fly-half François Trinh-Duc. The best most consistent outside half in France is constantly ignored, apparently because he does not suit Saint André and his coaching staff, this despite a brilliant season at Montpellier where the astute Fabien Galthié has built a team around him, and asked him “to just play”.

The debacle of the Australian tour could prove to be a watershed for Saint André since France were reduced to a rabble by the end of the 3^rd Test a wave of criticism has begun to build. Saint André’s tenure has been forensically examined and it can be seen that he has failed to build a team or give it as strong and identity. In fairness, since the time of Bernard Laporte France has become a shadow of the team that could play gloriously off the cuff rugby, score tries from anywhere on the pitch. Now they follow an insipid template devoid of inspiration, imagination and passion wedded to discipline and not encouraging their natural inclination to play with individual and collective flair.

The president of the FFR, Pierre Camou has at last recognised the problem or more pertinently with an election on 2016 he realises that he has to do something. His response is to sprinkle some stardust over the French setup. He has appointed the stellar French player Serge Blanco to an unspecified position in support of Saint André, this should be a warning to Saint André, typically though he has underplayed Blanco’s role; "It won`t be too bad a thing to have someone who can take off my hands certain things like the convention (an agreement between the league and the federation over the availability of international players which Blanco negotiated in 2013), and relations with the clubs," said Saint-Andre.

 He was speaking on the side-lines of the women`s rugby World Cup at the French national rugby centre in Marcoussis. Saint Andre along with his assistants Yannick Bru and Patrice Lagisquet met with Blanco briefly at Marcoussis on Tuesday. "Serge had a board meeting here, and I was working with Yannick and Patrice, so we had a coffee together and then he had to leave," said Saint André. But, he was not happy to be pressed on the subject and refused to elaborate on what exact role Blanco would play.

"I have nothing to say on the subject. We will see," he concluded tersely.

Saint André has to take stock rapidly and prove that he has the resolve and ability for the job. France are not playing anywhere near their potential, weighed down by unrealistic expectations, inadequately prepared or perversely, over coached. If he fails to deliver a remodelled rejuvenated team in November then he will not be France’s coach for the 6 Nations. It is time for Saint André to take note of the words of the great French soldier, Marshall Maurice de Saxe, “The first of all qualities of a general is courage. Without this the others are of little value since they cannot be used.” Saint André has to stand up for his convictions and let his side play the way he wants them to play and accept that he stands or falls on their performance and blame no-one else.

Available

 http://lastwordonsports.com/2014/08/12/france-national-rugby/

Italian Rugby's Most Important Season Ever

Italian rugby 2014-2015 “The year of destiny”

Sport can mirror a country, and with Italy in the grip of economic and political turmoil a malaise has also overcome its two major international team sports. As the Gazetta dello Sport digests the disaster of Brazil another world cup debacle looms over the horizon, for Italy’s beleaguered rugby team. A run of 10 defeats, including demoralising losses to, Japan and Fiji makes for a stark assessment of where the Azurri now rank in world rugby.

A member of the 6 Nations since 2000 Italy has still to really establish itself, other than being a great trip for fans. Victories have been sparse but, there is now a palpable sense of decline. Part of the problem lies with the structure of the domestic game. The two top teams; Benetton Treviso and Zebre play in the Guinness Pro-12, but, neither threatens the top of the league. Below them is the grandly named, “Campionato nazionale di eccellenza” (championship of excellence) composed of semi-professional teams that used to make up the backbone of the Italian national side. These teams still attract high levels of sponsorship but see themselves as independent entities and have no designated role in the development of players to feed the two professional sides or the national team.

For any organisation to succeed it’s the quality of its people that counts the most and the structure of Italian rugby is abjectly failing to provide the high quality players the country needs, Italy lacks the player depth needed to maintain its current vaunted position. The F.I.R. Federazione Italiana Rugby, like all unions has its detractors, but it’s responsible for safeguarding the development of the game of rugby in Italy. Simply put it appears as if the F.I.R. is unable to fulfil that singular obligation. F.I.R. president, Alfredo Gavazzi, and his vision for the future of the Italian game, ” progetta statura” – that only big guys can play rugby. The academy in Tirrenia is a place where the boys don’t become men but only machines, a place where they train all the muscles except one: the brain, by focusing on building a physique – it ignores the other skills, it fails to build a culture of attacking rugby, managing a game and the development of a style unique to Italy. Gavazzi knows that he also is running out of time. Italy has no international rugby coaches or world-class executives, some of the country’s oldest clubs have been marginalized, the standard of refereeing is bleak and the testing Autumn internationals could break his hold on power. There is a pressing need for the F.I.R. and the national team to take a different direction.

After the travails of the summer Jacques Bruni must realise that he too is running out of time. Bruni has never been one to look for the easy option, hard work and discipline have been the core values he has instilled into his team, but they are struggling for credibility. Italy are unravelling and the portents are not good. Their talisman the wonderful Sergio Parisse is struggling, even his legendary durability beginning to fade. Too many players ply their trade away from Italy, who can the local young players look up to? Tomaseo Allan, the “new Dominquez” will be playing in the French D2, why not for Zebre? Bruni still has at home, the precocious Michelle Campagno and the lion hearted Qunitin Geldhuys but otherwise, to watch the rest of his players Bruni will need a Sky TV subscripition.

The baggage of such a depressing run of defeats will be weighing heavily on the team and Bruni has very little talent to bring in to try and freshen up an increasingly jaded squad. Even the “Emerging Italy” team were heavily beaten by Georgia in the summer. Treviso and Zebre will struggle this season, the Guiness Pro-12 will be a much tougher proposition with the changes to european qualification. Both have trawled the Southern hemisphere for largely fringe Super rugby players to augment their sqauds but, they will simply not be able to compete against the resources of the Irish or even the Welsh regions.

In the Autumn Italy faces Samoa, Argentina and South Africa and Bruni and perhaps Gavazzi will need at least one victory to hold on. Probably the Samoan game will be the one that they target, but it will not be easy. Italy will have to play very well to secure a much needed victory.

Italy’s much heralded and universally welcomed entry into the 6 Nations was to show the rugby world that emerging rugby nations could eat at the “Top table” of international rugby and give hope to others like Georgia, Romania and Russia. Yet, with Italy’s apparent collapse of standing perhaps it’s time to consider promotion and relegation from the 6 Nations. After all there has to be accountability for poor results and the potential ignominy of relegation might be the incentive Italy needs to put its house in order before it’s too late.

 http://lastwordonsports.com/2014/08/05/italian-rugbys-most-important-season-ever/

 

 

 

 

Gareth Anscombe – “New Zealand’s loss and Wales’s gain?

Gareth Anscombe – “New Zealand’s loss and Wales’s gain?

The much heralded signing of the Waikato Chiefs’, utility back, Gareth Anscombe by the Cardiff Blues has not gone down well in the “Land of the long white cloud”. Yet, Gregor Paul writing in the NZ Herald on Sunday is premature in declaring that Anscombe is already the first choice for Wales at outside-half.

For Wales the number 10 shirt is iconic, reserved for the team’s most influential player. The pantheon of Welsh outside halves is legendary; Cliff Morgan, Phil Bennett, Barry John and Neil Jenkins are some of the great players that have graced the shirt. It says a great deal, therefore, that several astute commentators feel that Anscombe has the ability to join such a celebrated group of players.

On announcing the signing, Cardiff Blues chief executive Richard Holland speaking to BBC Sport gave a realistic assessment of the region’s expectations, "It's probably a question posed for the Welsh Rugby Union, but we'd be keen to see him progress to international honours and play for Wales. Gareth is a hugely talented player and he's got a huge future ahead of him, certainly with Cardiff Blues and who knows maybe he will go on and represent Wales as well. But he's a young man, he's still got some bits and pieces to learn and I'll leave that to the rugby guys to nurture and develop."

Anscombe is certainly a gifted player, “One of the Top 5 number 10’s in New Zealand”, according to Gregor Paul and he is of no doubt that New Zealand has carelessly lost a very good player indeed. Mishandled by the Auckland Blues, given limited opportunities by the Chiefs, an ambitious player like Anscombe would have no option other than to leave and find a team that would support him.

With a growing reputation, earned in the hard hitting cauldron of Super Rugby, Anscombe has developed an excellent skill set. He can play in the heavy traffic, attacks the gainline, distributes with precision and has soft hands, good feet and plays with his head up constantly scanning the field for options. All that could have meant that he would have been able to secure a contract at one of the wealthy Top14 clubs in France but, to his credit, he has chosen to ignore that route. He is well aware of his Welsh heritage and with his mother from Cardiff he has a palpable connection with the city and the principality. It is too strong to say that he is coming home as he told TVNZ, “However, in consultation with my family, I came to the conclusion that the opportunity in Wales was one that I simply couldn't turn down. I am really excited to be joining a region like Cardiff Blues. I was lucky enough to be able to visit last year so have a degree of familiarity with the club and people that will hopefully help me hit the ground running and start contributing to what I hope will be a successful season for the Blues. Much has been made about my Welsh eligibility and there is no doubt that my mother's side of the family have always reinforced my Welshness. I am under no illusions and my focus is very much on the Blues, and if the opportunity to represent Wales comes as a result of my performances on the pitch then of course I will take it."

He is pretty much a like-for-like replacement for the Toulon bound Leigh Halfpenny and at 23 years of age has time on his side. On the other hand, his chances of going quickly into Wales’s international side are not so straightforward. Dan Biggar of the Ospreys is the man in possession of the shirt and in his last appearance against South Africa he was a “tour de force”. Then, there is the mercurial Rhys Priestland at Scarlets who led Wales to the RWC semi-final in 2011. At the Ospreys there is also the promising Sam Davies, a former U20 international player of the year. Even at Cardiff things are not so open with the prodigious Rhys Patchell in their squad. If he had not suffered a significant injury last season he would have undoubtedly added to his two international caps. Last, but not least, there is Owen Williams at Leicester who stunned the ultra-competitive Aviva Premiership with his displays last season. The 22 year old displacing England fly-half Toby Flood as first choice for the Tigers. In short, Anscombe might not be in the top five number 10’s available for Wales.

Warren Gatland and his squad will though no doubt be very pleased with Anscombe’s arrival, although it may be too late for the November international series. Anscombe has strengthened Gatland’s options, increased competition for places and shown his players that there are no guarantees. It is also a considerable boost for the game in Wales that at a time when so many players are choosing to leave a player of Anscombe’s pedigree has chosen to ply his trade there. If Anscombe settles then he has the undoubted talent and potential to reach the top and if he gets the chance to wear the red of Wales then both he and the country will be grateful that both had made the right decision at the right time.

 Read on:http://lastwordonsports.com/2014/07/29/gareth-anscombe-new-zealands-loss-waless-gain/

 

Commonwealth Games Rugby 7’s – The dress rehearsal for Rio 2016

The inclusion of Rugby 7’s in the Olympics at Rio in 2016 has ramped up its profile across the sporting world. In Glasgow this weekend at the home of the famous Glasgow Rangers football club, Ibrox Park, a portent of the quality of that Olympic tournament will be on show.

The Commonwealth games brings together most of the top teams of the IRB sevens series and a pecking order for Rio will emerge. Teams will be able to benchmark their preparation and try out combinations and strategies. Sevens players at this elite level tend to be specialists and only Scotland have raided their 15 a side international team to augment their squad with the significant arrival of Scottish full internationals Stuart Hogg and Sean Lamont. The rest of the teams bring some of the strongest players in the world to the tournament. Anyone who has played rugby 7’s knows that it is a game of great speed that tests the players’ fitness, skills, stamina and heart to an extraordinary degree. As Sir Gordon Tietjens, the legendary NZ sevens coach puts it, “Standards in 7’s rugby are more than the physical and mental, they’re just not one thing.” There is no place to hide on the field of play, one on ones are omnipresent and any errors are always costly. The team that wins this tournament will be not just well prepared and supremely fit, that is a given, but the team that will ultimately emerge with the gold medal will be the one that has the ability to change plans on the hoof and the courage to express itself both individually and collectively.

In these days of over coached testosterone chess that is the 15 a side game the game of 7’s is a refreshing change which allows the mavericks, the smaller cleverer players a place on the big stage. Scotland is the spiritual home of rugby 7’s and the stadium will be full and raucous and they will know that NZ are the team to beat. There are though several teams capable of denying NZ their fifth consecutive Gold medal, notably England and their captain Tom Mitchell who reckons his side could just pull off something special. There are certain advantages to us," Mitchell told Press Association Sport. "We haven't had to travel far which is a benefit and where we are after the training we've done, we're in a really strong position so we're hoping to do very well and it's certainly realistic to be up there. Speaking to some of the guys who were in Delhi four years ago, a fourth place finish is pretty tough to swallow and everyone is pretty determined to go well this year. We've worked incredibly hard over the last couple of months to get things right, and working hard in the gym as well to get in the best possible shape for it. If we back ourselves and do what we know we can do we can do well against anyone." England might not enjoy great support at Ibrox yet they do have the pedigree to go deep in the tournament but with five of the six best teams in the world in Glasgow they know anything could happen.

But despite that Mitchell and his peers know that the team to beat will be NZ with a record of zero defeats in four Commonwealth Games and a "brutal" training regime behind them, every team will be chasing down New Zealand, with Captain DJ Forbes telling BBC Sport the rigorous work Sir Gordon Tietjens has been putting the team through.  "His methods are old school - 'brutal' is one of the words I'm sure a lot of people will agree with," said the forward, with Tietjens revealing why he has put his team through the mill. "It's fair comment that I'm quite hard, but I also believe I'm quite fair.”

It is the unpredictable nature of the tournament that makes it the most wanted ticket in town, and the appearance of several of the smaller teams adds great spice to the mix.

Pool A of New Zealand, Canada, Scotland and Barbados is arguably the toughest of the four due to three IRB Series core nations being involved. Many expect the fixture at 21:04 between the Canadians and Scots to be vital in deciding who joins the Kiwis in the Cup.

Pool B consists of South Africa, Kenya, Cook Islands and Trinidad and Tobago

Pool C has Samoa, Wales, Papua New Guinea and Malaysia battling for progression to Sunday's elite competition.

Pool D pits England with Australia, Sri Lanka and Uganda in what should be a Cup progression formality for the more established duo on Day One.

The bookies rarely make a mistake and they have New Zealand as favourites and South Africa, England, Australia, Samoa and Canada their closest rivals, Kenya are a team not to be written off. It is very hard to see beyond a NZ victory and they will deserve it because they never take anything for granted. Expectation back home will drive them on they will not want to disappoint themselves and their supporters. “We find that every team that plays New Zealand goes into a game saying 'we've got nothing to lose'. So we treat every game like a final.” Is how Tietjens has prepared his team. To win the gold medal at Glasgow 2014will require a supreme effort, 100% on the gas for two days. Whoever emerges victorious will know that they will have earned the plaudits.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predictions Heineken Cup Round 5

Games

Racing metro92 vs. Scarlets – Scarlets by 3+

Ulster vs. Montpelier – Ulster by 10+

Exeter Chiefs vs. Glasgow Warriors – Exeter by 7+

Toulon vs. Cardiff Blues – Toulon by 7+

Connacht vs. Zebre- Connacht by 10+

*Harlequins vs. Clermont Auvergne

Treviso vs. Leicester – Leicester by 10+

Gloucester vs. Munster – Munster by 10+

Edinburgh vs. Perpignan – Edinburgh by 5-7

Ospreys vs. Northampton – Ospreys by 3-5

*Toulouse vs. Saracens

Summary

The weekend of the Heineken Cup shakedown is here, the quarter finals are so close for some and others will just be fulfilling obligations. Many of the encounters have the feel of predictability and after the turgid Top14 games of last week the French teams look tired and devoid of ideas. Toulon, the European champions lost at home, Laporte throws his toys out of the pram and the Blues can travel to Nice with a spring in their step. But, the experienced” boys of the Med”, will not take this game lightly, and the Blues without Patchell will do well to get anything out of this game. Ulster in front of a rabid Ravenhill will deal with Montpellier with room to spare, setting up a winner takes all contest at Welford Road next week. Scarlets will not be concerned by their trip to racing Metro92 and could well spring a surprise.

Munster goes to a struggling and inconsistent Gloucester targeting not just a win but a clinching bonus point. Perpignan hopes were snuffed out by the brilliant last minute Munster effort and will not be motivated going to Edinburgh and will lose. Connacht vs. Zebre is a marketing man’s nightmare and could well prove to be the worst game of the weekend, even the competition. Leicester will do a professional number on Treviso and the Italian challenge will once again disappear. Exeter Chiefs need to beat Glasgow to build up some momentum for the challenges ahead and will deal with the misfiring warriors with ease. Ospreys vs. Northampton could have been the game of the round and with the Saints’ great win in Dublin they have given themselves a chance. But, the loss of Lawes and the resurgent Ospreys will not allow the Saints to leave the Liberty with anything positive. Ospreys will throw everything at them to spoil their party; this will not be a game for the faint hearted.

*Harlequins vs. Clermont Auvergne

Clermont know that they cannot afford to lose this game, they do and they are off the top spot. Vern Cotter will be mightily relieved that he can call upon the returning pocket battleship, Morgan Parra for this game. Clermont’s injury list is vast, with many first choices unavailable. The return of the combative Cudmore will at least give some bite to a depleted Clermont pack. The defeat at the Saints was a hard to take for the ‘Quins and the injury to Evans a concern but the return of Care and a fired up Nick Easter are most welcome. The Stoop will be packed, the ground wet and sticky and Evans, if he plays knows exactly how to exploit the conditions. Damage limitation will be Clermont’s mission, a losing bonus point their prime aim. Harlequins will have too much for the men from the Massif Central but will struggle to deny them a bonus point

Prediction

 

Harlequins to win by 3-7

 

*Toulouse vs. Saracens

 

Toulouse will have been looking forward to this match, and last week’s victory over Clermont a perfect rehearsal. In the Top14 they have struggled, failing to find their renowned fluency and the loss to Connacht a bitter pill to swallow. Saracens task to get anything out of this game is the hardest of the weekend.

 

Saracens were relentless last week at Kingsholm, playing with pace and intensity that blew the Gloucester team off the park. But to win at Toulouse they will need to improve on that great effort. Toulouse might not have hit their straps yet but some day son they will and Saracens know after the humbling at Wembley what the Red and Blacks are capable of. Toulouse knows that they have to avoid defeat and with the hapless Zebre to follow, once again they will qualify.

 

Prediction

 

Toulouse to win by 10+ points

 

Predictions weekend January 3rd to January 5th

Friday January 3^rd

Aviva Premiership

Newcastle vs. Sale Sharks – Sharks to win by 3-7 points

Northampton vs. Harlequins – Northampton to win by 10-15 points

Rabo Pro12

Ulster vs. Munster – Ulster to win by 3-7 points

Ospreys vs. Scarlets – Ospreys to win by 7 -10 points

Saturday January 4^th

Aviva Premiership

London Irish vs. Worcester – London Irish to win by 10+ points

Gloucester vs. Saracens – Saracens to win by 3 – 10 points

Rabo Pro12

Zebre vs. Benetton Treviso – Benetton Treviso to win by 5-10+ points

Connacht vs. Leinster – Connacht to win by 1 – 3 points

Top14

Toulouse vs. Clermont – Toulouse to win by 3-7 points

Toulon vs. Grenoble – Toulon to win by 10 -17 points

Oyonnax vs. RM Paris – Oyoannax to win by 2-5 points

Biarritz vs. Stade Francais – Stade to win by 5-7 points

Perpignan vs. Bayonne – Perpignan to win by 5-7 points

Castres vs. Bordeaux-Begles –Castres to win by 10+ points

Brive vs. Montpellier – Montpellier to win by 2-5 points

Sunday January 5th

Aviva Premiership

Leicester vs. Bath – Leicester to win by 3 – 7 points

Wasps vs. Exeter – Wasps to win by 3-6 points

Gatland's Long term contract; good for Welsh rugby?

Gatland signs a contract with the WRU until the RWC in Japan in 2019. Is this a clever piece of business by the WRU? Gatland’s record as Welsh coach is on the face of it a good one. He has a win record of 52%, yet only once during his tenure as his side managed to beat one of the “Big 3” Southern Hemisphere sides during a period when Wales has largely dominated international rugby on the European stage. Additionally, Wales’ magnificent run to the semi-finals at the RWC’11could bear some scrutiny, after all who did Wales actually defeat; Samoa, Fiji, Namibia, and Ireland; they lost to SA, France and of course, Australia.

The WRU have had no qualms despite the bushfires raging through Welsh rugby to give Gatland a 6 year contract. They see his continuity as coach as essential to maintain Welsh success, and they are probably right. In world terms he is a proven coach, a shrewd selector and for the majority of time a winner. He has used his position to reinvent Wales as an international force providing the players with the most up to date training facilities and medical back up in the world and the WRU’s magnificent complex at the Vale exemplifies their backing for Gatland’s vision. Now they have shown their support even more clearly and will want their investment to  pay off. The Welsh rugby public will continue to back, “Gats” and the team, yet they are right to ask, “When are Wales going to truly deliver on the world stage?” and this contract gives Gatland the chance to answer that question.

Gatland has the type of contract that will be the envy of his rivals; he has the security of being able to ride out some poor results provided the fans can see the side improving and developing. The time has come for Wales to stop threatening to break through, but in 2015 they will have to beat perceived better sides to even qualify for the quarter finals. Continuity brings with it the ability to take bold decisions, to make the type of radical changes that bring about permanent change, and could mean that Gatland’s team can truly enter the pantheon of great welsh rugby teams. His reputation, his legacy cannot be just about 6 Nations championships and Grand Slams. Gatland has to make Wales one of the best sides, if not the best in the world. It is time for Gatland to rebuild, redesign and refashion the team and his staff.

Shaun Edwards’ reaction to Gatland’s decision not to take him with the Lions was superb, and if anything has secured his position as Gatland’s “Go to man”. Howley has proved himself, yet how does he feel about Gatland’s new contract? Maybe he expected to get the job after RWC’15? He would be very courageous to leave now with so much attacking Welsh talent available, to mould and create a definite style to the team’s attack. Probably the most vulnerable is Robin McBryde. The Welsh lineout has not improved, a weakness that opponent’s target with monotonous regularity; up front the massive Welsh pack is regularly bested by NZ and SA and has yet to fashion a threatening driving maul. Maybe Gatland should take over the responsibility for the forwards and get hold of the soon to retire Steve Borthwick, after all he was instrumental in Japan’s defeat of McBryde’s Wales in the summer. Borthwick is an acknowledged “line-out doctor” maybe he could change Wales’ line-out?

Many of the players available to Gatland will be young enough to go through the RWC’s of 2015 and ’19, he an excellent pool of talent to select from. The ingenious part will be is when to select them, to decide that the time is right to move a seasoned player on. For example, when Gatland drops Phillips at 9, then without doubt the Wales’ attack strategy will be able to change; Biggar or Priestland at 10? Does he move North to 13 and play Davies at inside centre? In the front row who will replace Jenkins and Adam Jones? Surely a place has to be found for Tirpuric and what might that mean for Lydiate and Warburton? It is for making such tough decisions and getting them right, most of the time that is why the WRU have backed Warren Gatland.

This could be the best bit of business done by the astute Roger Lewis but, there is still considerable risk for the WRU. The Welsh rugby public will not be forgiving if Wales does not progress over the coming years and the stumbling performance during the recent autumn does not augur well for the first season of Gatland’s new extended contract, maybe the amount of time the man from the Waikato has, is erroneous?