Predictions Heineken Cup Round 5

Games

Racing metro92 vs. Scarlets – Scarlets by 3+

Ulster vs. Montpelier – Ulster by 10+

Exeter Chiefs vs. Glasgow Warriors – Exeter by 7+

Toulon vs. Cardiff Blues – Toulon by 7+

Connacht vs. Zebre- Connacht by 10+

*Harlequins vs. Clermont Auvergne

Treviso vs. Leicester – Leicester by 10+

Gloucester vs. Munster – Munster by 10+

Edinburgh vs. Perpignan – Edinburgh by 5-7

Ospreys vs. Northampton – Ospreys by 3-5

*Toulouse vs. Saracens

Summary

The weekend of the Heineken Cup shakedown is here, the quarter finals are so close for some and others will just be fulfilling obligations. Many of the encounters have the feel of predictability and after the turgid Top14 games of last week the French teams look tired and devoid of ideas. Toulon, the European champions lost at home, Laporte throws his toys out of the pram and the Blues can travel to Nice with a spring in their step. But, the experienced” boys of the Med”, will not take this game lightly, and the Blues without Patchell will do well to get anything out of this game. Ulster in front of a rabid Ravenhill will deal with Montpellier with room to spare, setting up a winner takes all contest at Welford Road next week. Scarlets will not be concerned by their trip to racing Metro92 and could well spring a surprise.

Munster goes to a struggling and inconsistent Gloucester targeting not just a win but a clinching bonus point. Perpignan hopes were snuffed out by the brilliant last minute Munster effort and will not be motivated going to Edinburgh and will lose. Connacht vs. Zebre is a marketing man’s nightmare and could well prove to be the worst game of the weekend, even the competition. Leicester will do a professional number on Treviso and the Italian challenge will once again disappear. Exeter Chiefs need to beat Glasgow to build up some momentum for the challenges ahead and will deal with the misfiring warriors with ease. Ospreys vs. Northampton could have been the game of the round and with the Saints’ great win in Dublin they have given themselves a chance. But, the loss of Lawes and the resurgent Ospreys will not allow the Saints to leave the Liberty with anything positive. Ospreys will throw everything at them to spoil their party; this will not be a game for the faint hearted.

*Harlequins vs. Clermont Auvergne

Clermont know that they cannot afford to lose this game, they do and they are off the top spot. Vern Cotter will be mightily relieved that he can call upon the returning pocket battleship, Morgan Parra for this game. Clermont’s injury list is vast, with many first choices unavailable. The return of the combative Cudmore will at least give some bite to a depleted Clermont pack. The defeat at the Saints was a hard to take for the ‘Quins and the injury to Evans a concern but the return of Care and a fired up Nick Easter are most welcome. The Stoop will be packed, the ground wet and sticky and Evans, if he plays knows exactly how to exploit the conditions. Damage limitation will be Clermont’s mission, a losing bonus point their prime aim. Harlequins will have too much for the men from the Massif Central but will struggle to deny them a bonus point

Prediction

 

Harlequins to win by 3-7

 

*Toulouse vs. Saracens

 

Toulouse will have been looking forward to this match, and last week’s victory over Clermont a perfect rehearsal. In the Top14 they have struggled, failing to find their renowned fluency and the loss to Connacht a bitter pill to swallow. Saracens task to get anything out of this game is the hardest of the weekend.

 

Saracens were relentless last week at Kingsholm, playing with pace and intensity that blew the Gloucester team off the park. But to win at Toulouse they will need to improve on that great effort. Toulouse might not have hit their straps yet but some day son they will and Saracens know after the humbling at Wembley what the Red and Blacks are capable of. Toulouse knows that they have to avoid defeat and with the hapless Zebre to follow, once again they will qualify.

 

Prediction

 

Toulouse to win by 10+ points

 

Predictions weekend January 3rd to January 5th

Friday January 3^rd

Aviva Premiership

Newcastle vs. Sale Sharks – Sharks to win by 3-7 points

Northampton vs. Harlequins – Northampton to win by 10-15 points

Rabo Pro12

Ulster vs. Munster – Ulster to win by 3-7 points

Ospreys vs. Scarlets – Ospreys to win by 7 -10 points

Saturday January 4^th

Aviva Premiership

London Irish vs. Worcester – London Irish to win by 10+ points

Gloucester vs. Saracens – Saracens to win by 3 – 10 points

Rabo Pro12

Zebre vs. Benetton Treviso – Benetton Treviso to win by 5-10+ points

Connacht vs. Leinster – Connacht to win by 1 – 3 points

Top14

Toulouse vs. Clermont – Toulouse to win by 3-7 points

Toulon vs. Grenoble – Toulon to win by 10 -17 points

Oyonnax vs. RM Paris – Oyoannax to win by 2-5 points

Biarritz vs. Stade Francais – Stade to win by 5-7 points

Perpignan vs. Bayonne – Perpignan to win by 5-7 points

Castres vs. Bordeaux-Begles –Castres to win by 10+ points

Brive vs. Montpellier – Montpellier to win by 2-5 points

Sunday January 5th

Aviva Premiership

Leicester vs. Bath – Leicester to win by 3 – 7 points

Wasps vs. Exeter – Wasps to win by 3-6 points

Gatland's Long term contract; good for Welsh rugby?

Gatland signs a contract with the WRU until the RWC in Japan in 2019. Is this a clever piece of business by the WRU? Gatland’s record as Welsh coach is on the face of it a good one. He has a win record of 52%, yet only once during his tenure as his side managed to beat one of the “Big 3” Southern Hemisphere sides during a period when Wales has largely dominated international rugby on the European stage. Additionally, Wales’ magnificent run to the semi-finals at the RWC’11could bear some scrutiny, after all who did Wales actually defeat; Samoa, Fiji, Namibia, and Ireland; they lost to SA, France and of course, Australia.

The WRU have had no qualms despite the bushfires raging through Welsh rugby to give Gatland a 6 year contract. They see his continuity as coach as essential to maintain Welsh success, and they are probably right. In world terms he is a proven coach, a shrewd selector and for the majority of time a winner. He has used his position to reinvent Wales as an international force providing the players with the most up to date training facilities and medical back up in the world and the WRU’s magnificent complex at the Vale exemplifies their backing for Gatland’s vision. Now they have shown their support even more clearly and will want their investment to  pay off. The Welsh rugby public will continue to back, “Gats” and the team, yet they are right to ask, “When are Wales going to truly deliver on the world stage?” and this contract gives Gatland the chance to answer that question.

Gatland has the type of contract that will be the envy of his rivals; he has the security of being able to ride out some poor results provided the fans can see the side improving and developing. The time has come for Wales to stop threatening to break through, but in 2015 they will have to beat perceived better sides to even qualify for the quarter finals. Continuity brings with it the ability to take bold decisions, to make the type of radical changes that bring about permanent change, and could mean that Gatland’s team can truly enter the pantheon of great welsh rugby teams. His reputation, his legacy cannot be just about 6 Nations championships and Grand Slams. Gatland has to make Wales one of the best sides, if not the best in the world. It is time for Gatland to rebuild, redesign and refashion the team and his staff.

Shaun Edwards’ reaction to Gatland’s decision not to take him with the Lions was superb, and if anything has secured his position as Gatland’s “Go to man”. Howley has proved himself, yet how does he feel about Gatland’s new contract? Maybe he expected to get the job after RWC’15? He would be very courageous to leave now with so much attacking Welsh talent available, to mould and create a definite style to the team’s attack. Probably the most vulnerable is Robin McBryde. The Welsh lineout has not improved, a weakness that opponent’s target with monotonous regularity; up front the massive Welsh pack is regularly bested by NZ and SA and has yet to fashion a threatening driving maul. Maybe Gatland should take over the responsibility for the forwards and get hold of the soon to retire Steve Borthwick, after all he was instrumental in Japan’s defeat of McBryde’s Wales in the summer. Borthwick is an acknowledged “line-out doctor” maybe he could change Wales’ line-out?

Many of the players available to Gatland will be young enough to go through the RWC’s of 2015 and ’19, he an excellent pool of talent to select from. The ingenious part will be is when to select them, to decide that the time is right to move a seasoned player on. For example, when Gatland drops Phillips at 9, then without doubt the Wales’ attack strategy will be able to change; Biggar or Priestland at 10? Does he move North to 13 and play Davies at inside centre? In the front row who will replace Jenkins and Adam Jones? Surely a place has to be found for Tirpuric and what might that mean for Lydiate and Warburton? It is for making such tough decisions and getting them right, most of the time that is why the WRU have backed Warren Gatland.

This could be the best bit of business done by the astute Roger Lewis but, there is still considerable risk for the WRU. The Welsh rugby public will not be forgiving if Wales does not progress over the coming years and the stumbling performance during the recent autumn does not augur well for the first season of Gatland’s new extended contract, maybe the amount of time the man from the Waikato has, is erroneous?