Games for the weekend 16th-17th
September 2016
Scarlets v Ulster, Friday 16th September @
Kingspan Stadium k.o.19.05
Scarlets have not become a bad side
overnight but two lacklustre performances and subsequent defeats make the
prospect of visiting an unbeaten Ulster team less than enticing. Up front the
pack has, so far, failed to fire and play with the dynamism necessary to
unleash the much vaunted Scarlets’ backline. The set piece lacks ballast and is
too easily targeted by the opposition, leading to penalties, turn overs and
loss of field positon. Injuries and illness have not helped and Pivac should
not be tempted to rush these players back although playing a rampant Ulster
side on Friday evening will be a severe test, particularly as it looks as Ulster
will be considerably strengthened for the game with arguably the most influential player in the league
to deal with in Charles Piutau.
Prop Rodney Ah You, signed from
Connacht, the 27 year old tight-head prop will make his competitive home debut
on Friday. Craig Gilroy is set to return to Ulster duty as well, while the side
is also likely to welcome back other internationals: Andrew Trimble, Paddy
Jackson and Iain Henderson are among the Ireland players who could be in
contention to make their competitive season's debuts in the Kingspan Stadium
clash. All three have been rested for the opening two games after being
involved in Ireland's summer tour of South Africa. This will make the Scarlets’
task all the more difficult.
The Kingspan Stadium is a bear pit of
a ground and the Scarlets will need to start well and try to keep the crowd quiet;
never an easy task. ‘If’ the
Scarlets’ forwards do manage to front up and gain some good ball there is no
doubt that they possess the players to do some serious damage and maybe repeat
last season’s victory. However, it’s a huge ‘If’.
Prediction: Ulster to win by 10 to 15 points.
Cardiff Blues v Glasgow
Warriors, Friday 16th
September @ Cardiff Arms Park k.o. 19.00
Glasgow will arrive at the Arms Park
with momentum following two bonus point victories and with Tom Seymour in
devastating form on the wing, after scoring 4 tries last weekend. They will
probably start as favourites. The Blues, however, have made a strong start
themselves and have shown some exceptional form and this is certainly not a
“gimme” for Glasgow. Cardiff’s heavy victory over a poor Edinburgh side was
followed up with last week’s well-constructed win away at Munster showing that Danny Wilson’s side have
matured considerably from last season. He has made some changes for the game
naming Josh Turnbull and Sam Warburton to come into a reshuffled pack but placing
Nick Williams on the bench, could be a tactical stroke of genius when he could
come on in the last 20 minutes and create mayhem. Given the prospect of the
largest crowd seen at a Pro12 league game at the Arm’s Park for some time this
could be the game of the weekend.
Cardiff have a pleasing variety to
their attack and in Nick Williams, a superb signing for the region, they have developed
a formidable pragmatic approach to their game. When the chance to attack is on
they take it but when there are hard yards necessary they now have the personnel
to grunt it out. Anscombe is beginning to reveal his true potential with soft
hands, excellent distribution and a howitzer boot. Plus there are the added
dimensions in the backs of Willis Halaholo and Matthew Morgan, which allows the
Blues to attack from deep, not to mention the menace of wingers James and
Cuthbert. Glasgow will have to be on their mettle to contain these multiple
threats. The Blues will be buoyed by the fact that Glasgow gave away three
tries against Leinster and they can be opened up. Cardiff have under the shrewd
guidance of Graham Stedman tightened up their defence and will go into this
game believing they can go to the next level in terms of performance.
A Cardiff victory would be a surprise
yet not an unlikely event. Glasgow will have to play very well to win.
Prediction: Cardiff Blues to win by 3 to 5 points.
Newport Gwent Dragons v
Munster, Saturday 17th
September @ Rodney Parade k.o. 17.15
It appears that all is not well at
Rodney Parade, with the players voicing their unhappiness at the views of their
paying public and their demands that the team play with a bit more adventure
and the enterprise that coach Kingsley Jones has promised. The team appear to be
stuck in a rut and they have to pull themselves out of it. Losing to Ulster was
not a disgrace and being pilloried for not putting the Zebre team to the sword
is, in some respects, unfair. Yet to complain about your supporters is not a
clever thing to do.
It needs to be remembered that the
Zebre required a much improved performance themselves after their heavy defeat
to the Ospreys; they are playing for their livelihoods as well. That said, the
Dragons appear under powered up front, they have talented and pacey backs but
they need to be given the space to perform. Overall the age of the team means
they need to grow on the field and this lack of maturity can occasionally lead
to errors and misjudgements.
Probably playing Munster, hurting
after last week’s unexpected defeat to the Blues, would not at first sight be
the ideal team for the Dragons to be playing. Yet it gives them a real chance
at exoneration and presents them with a target all week in training. They have
a chance to prove people wrong on Saturday and the Dragons have a track record
of raising their game in adversity.
In Hallam Amos they have an excellent
player and the team could be strengthened by wings Ashley Hewitt and Tom Prydie
returning and, with scrum half Pretorius calling the shots, they could test Munster.
It is hard, though, not to see anything but a Munster win, they simply have too
many weapons and this will result in another difficult press conference for coach
Kingsley Jones.
Prediction: Munster to win by 10 to 12 points
Ospreys v Treviso, Saturday 17th September @
Liberty Stadium k.o. 19.35
On paper this looks like an easy
victory for the Ospreys who have made a great start to the Pro12 with two bonus
point victories. Yet they have not always found it easy against Treviso who are
well coached by the experienced Kieran Crowley. But Ospreys are playing well
and they are playing with confidence, power and accuracy. Sam Davies at no.10
has made an outstanding start to the season and he is really making the Ospreys
hum. He links well with Webb and plays close up to the gain line bringing his
partners in crime into the game at pace and on the front foot. He is a constant
threat, prepared to carry the ball when needed or use his massive left boot to
get the team out of trouble.
Perhaps most pleasing has been the
ability of the pack to hold onto the ball for long periods to crank up the
pressure. They have also employed their big ball carriers to gain the hard
yards, and they have relished the task. The driving maul is another formidable
weapon that they have utilised to turn pressure into points. Tirpuric has
returned to his best form, running fantastic lines, supporting intelligently
and making an impact whenever he becomes involved. With Webb, Davies and Evans
in the backline playing with fluency and threat there is a good chance that the
Ospreys could secure another bonus point win, as Treviso will find it hard to
live with the pace and tempo the Ospreys will impose on them.
Prediction: Ospreys to win by 15 - 20 points
New Zealand v South
Africa, Saturday 17th
September @ AMI Stadium, Christchurch k.o. 07.35 GMT
The general impression is that with
the extent of the Springbok’s level of transition this should be a routine
victory for the All Blacks as they have endured two consecutive losses and been
dismissed by several pundits as a “shambles”. This is unfair; no SA side lacks
heart, commitment or skill but it is clear that they are finding it difficult
to adjust to the new regime and new rules they have to follow.
NZ are too experienced and wily to be
taken in by the expectations that all they will have to do is turn up to win.
On the other hand it is very difficult to see any other result rather than a
comprehensive NZ victory. The win over a competitive Argentina led by the irrepressible
Beauden Barrett, Ben Smith, and Julian Savea, who enjoyed his best game of 2016, points to a
side brimming with confidence and ability. The Springboks, meanwhile, barely
troubled the Wallabies after scoring two early five-pointers from turnover
ball; they were then left to lament some poor discipline as Australia came away
with a six-point win.
SA will play with their usual vigour
but NZ will overwhelm them in the last twenty minutes.
Prediction: NZ to win by 15 points
Australia v Argentina, Saturday 17th September @
Perth k.o. 11.05 GMT
The Wallabies confront an improved
Argentina on Saturday as they look to keep the winning habit after finally ending
a six-match losing streak. Michael Cheika's side brought up their first win of
the year after overcoming South Africa 23 -17 last week, and they will be
chasing further improvement against the Pumas. But Argentina will be no
pushovers in Perth. The
Pumas conquered South Africa 26 - 24 last month in Salta, their first home win
over the Springboks, and they also gave New Zealand problems last week before
the All Blacks powered away in the final half-hour.
Prediction: Argentina to win by 3 - 5 points
