Rugby coach the testing time, end of season run in.

Who’d be a Rugby Coach?

 

Given the ridiculous opprobrium heaped on Warren Gatland when he revealed the British and Irish Lions squad last week it does beg the question, ‘Who would want to be a rugby coach’, particularly at the pinnacle of the game. Sackings, political chicanery and leaving before being pushed are now part and parcel of the game. Certainly the financial recompense would be an inducement but the lack of job security, stress and public criticism has to be a consideration. Although, thankfully, no coach has talked about it being ‘his project’, it is clear that they all crave the chance to have sufficient time to be allowed to make a difference. But, the caveat appears to be that time is definitely finite and last season’s performance counts for very little if there isn’t a significant improvement, and do not rely on your contract.

Rugby coaches used to be developed from within clubs, learning their trade with the lower sides before being entrusted with the 1stXV. This was certainly the route to the top taken by the excellent Rob Baxter at Exeter Chiefs, but how many clubs are following that example? Around the game there now appears to be that a new coach is needed as soon as performance dips below expectations. These expectations might not be those of the supporters but more often than not the owners, benefactors or shareholders that decide that they have no choice, they simply have to react. The panacea appears to be to employ a coach from the all-conquering Southern Hemisphere and watch them magically weave a winning side. This has heralded the arrival of the ‘Super coach’, paid a huge salary, access to a large playing budget and the demand that training facilities are upgraded. Then there are the layers of specialist coaches; attack, defence, scrum, lineout and even an ‘exit’ coach and that is before the need for a Sports Science department and medical staff. Naturally for all that outlay investors are going to want to see a return. Coaches stand or fall based on the quality of their results, Mike Ford for one has suffered from that over the last year. Leicester, Bristol and Gloucester in the AVIVA have all made changes mid-season in their coaching staff in a desperate bid to improve results. Not all these situations were handled with the skill and empathy that the game likes to think it has. The Pro12 has seen two coaches move on so far this season at Edinburgh and Zebre. Other clubs, regions and provinces will wait and take stock at the end of the season when explanations for underachievement will be sought.

Rugby clubs are expensive to run and it is very rare to be able to turn a profit but the intertwining of money and sport is now an unwelcome but established fact. Success should not be down to money alone but across all of the European leagues it all too often does. For a long time Rugby has prided itself as very different to soccer. But, now it is much harder to see any difference; foreign players and coaches are omnipresent, vast TV deals for the Top14 and the AVIVA mean that they have moved ahead of most of the teams in the Pro12 and the game is now very much a business. Supporters can hark back to the good old days but if any club/region/province wants to do more than survive then investment will be needed.

This means that a rugby coach’s job security at the top level is not watertight. In Wales as the Pro12 season shudders to a climax the coaches and players of the Ospreys, Scarlets and the Blues all have something to play for both on and off the field. They will know that if things do not go well questions will be asked. In so many respects this is unfair when you consider the resources they are up against, and then case for investment in the regions becomes ever more urgent. The pressure is constant, relentless and all the coaches deserve to be given a break, some level of understanding but results will need to go their way.

By far the man with the hardest task is Kingsley Jones, at Newport Gwent Dragons as he takes what must be a deflated team to Edinburgh. He will be well aware of how uncertainty saps at the morale of a squad and with all of the speculation circling Rodney Parade it will extremely difficult to motivate the players in Scotland. On the other hand they know that they are playing for their futures wherever that may lie. Danny Wilson must be desperate to ensure that the Blues get 5 points against the hapless Zebre, to maintain the form they displayed in crushing the Ospreys and at last showing some much needed consistency. The team can still challenge for 6^th place in the table but realistically it’s more important to have some good form going into the Champions Cup playoffs. Pivac at the Scarlets has a formidable task in taking his team to Connacht. They will be emotionally up for this game, Pat Lam’s last home game in charge of the team and with their own European future to consider. But, the Scarlets despite the loss of the totemic James Davies at 7 will be confident of being able to do a job, and make it even harder for the Ospreys when they come to Parc y Scarlets next Saturday. Steve Tandy undoubtedly faces a severe examination of his coaching credentials as they face an Ulster team who will most definitely fancy their chances. Ospreys’ loss of form and meek surrender to the Blues will have been taxing Tandy and his team for the last two weeks as a season that carried the promise of glory has proven to be illusory. He must be hoping that on Saturday the Ospreys rediscover their confidence and abilities in an effort to seek redemption for the series of damaging defeats that team has endured. If they do not, and lose, the match the following week at the Scarlets becomes one, defining the team.

Futures might well be decided over the coming week, all coaches know that their tenure can come to an end following a run of bad results and they also know the frustration of once the whistle goes they can do very little to influence the outcome. It does make you wonder who’d be a Rugby Coach.

 

 

Hughes's Hunch Prediction European Cup Semi Final

April 22^nd 2017

 

European Championship Semi-Final

 

Munster vs Saracens at the AVIVA stadium Dublin

 

The potential for an European classic match is obvious, and often we are left disappointed but such is the form of both these sides the likelihood of this being a game to live up to the occasion is excellent.

 

As current European champions, Saracens will be arriving at the AVIVA stadium bristling with confidence and determined to defend their title. Against them stands the proud province of Munster, with its celebrated ‘Red Army’ of supporters, equally determined to deny them victory.

 

Galvanised by the sudden sad death of their coach Alex Foley Munster have had a magnificent season and play with passion and precision under the tutelage of 'Rassie' Erasmus the side’s Director of Rugby. He has produced a team capable of upsetting the Saracens. Munster couple a never say die attitude with the ability to mix their game up between the forwards and backs, grunting up the middle and throwing it wide when needed. Their driving maul to the purist is a thing of beauty, and Saracens will have to maintain their discipline. In Simon Zebo and CJ Stander they have players that when on song can change a game in an instant, and they are both enjoying a run of good form at present. But, the likely absence of Scrum Half Murray will hurt them and although Saracens have constantly said that they expect him to play Munster have prepared all week without him. Peter O’Mahony will lead his team and pack with his customary ferocity and his line out duel with Kruis and Itoje could well settle the game. His performance against Itoje in the 6 Nations will fill him with confidence.

 

On song as the Saracens were against the Glasgow Warriors they can be irresistible playing with a relentless verve that most sides struggle to live with never mind contain. With 6 British and Irish Lions in the side they will be brimming with confidence. The Vunipola brothers and Jamie George means that the defence of Munster will be sorely tested and out wide the likes of Ashton and Maitland running their usual sweet lines of support requires the Munster back row to be everywhere because the attacks will keep coming. If that was not enough, the Munster team will have to think about how to contain Farrell and Wrigglesworth who are two of the best game managers currently playing and they will do their best to boss the Munster team around.

 

It will be a close game and the side that not only takes their opportunities but holds their nerve will emerge victorious. There is a good chance that it will come down to goal-kicking and it is here through the imperious Farrell that Saracens possess the crucial difference.

 

 

Prediction

 

The heart would love Munster to win, they have been to a dark place this season, and have responded magnificently, but the head says that the Saracens will win by 3-6 points.

British and Irish Lions 2017- ‘Selection is always subjective’

British and Irish Lions 2017

 

‘Selection is always subjective’

 

After the smoke and mirrors, rumours and innuendo of the last 24 hours, the British and Irish Lions touring party has been announced at last and the speculation can end. The strength of interest in the Lions has been amply shown by the meltdown on social media that the announcement caused. Gatland and his coaching team have partly shown their hand but, until the group arrive in NZ intact, how they will play is not certain. The chosen team members now have to get through some of their most challenging games of the season with the various cup finals and league finales ahead. Everyone concerned will be crossing their fingers over the coming weeks that they emerge unscathed.

The appointment of Sam Warburton had been well trailed and, in most areas, welcomed. In Australia 2013, Warburton cut an impressive figure handicapping any attempts a hostile Australian media made to get the Australian public to turn on the tourists. The rabid NZ media will, no doubt, try their best to rattle him and the group but Warburton is a fine player and quality human being. Indeed, to most NZ parents he would their ideal choice as son-in-law, only just behind Richie Macaw. More pertinently, his form in the 6 Nations makes him a certain pick for the test side either at 6 or 7 and this versatility will augment the Lions test side. Becoming a Lions captain for a second time does not yet elevate Warburton to greatness, that is decided at the end of a career, but it is a supreme accolade and one that he is superbly equipped to succeed at again.

Much will be made over the omission of several players, Dylan Harley, Jamie Heaslip and several Scots are obvious but selection is not objective, it is a subjective exercise, and, inevitably, not everyone will agree. Gatland knows this and he will be judged by how his team plays. Players who have been left out should not be too aggrieved; Lions selection is not a right and it is certainly not based simply on your team’s performance. It is down to the qualities and playing skills of the individual player, how he will fit into the strategy and how will he react to being one of many superb players. Personality and a  positive supportive attitude will be vital; to be considered as elite means that a player has to be special, one that makes things happen rather than living off the efforts of his team mates and knows that the hard work starts now. Being selected is not enough to make you a Lion.

The selection does not show how the Lions will play; there are so many gifted players at Gatland’s disposal that he can choose his approach from a position of strength. The media will talk about ‘Warrenball’ as if it is a negative, on the other hand, what if it wins the series? It was ‘Warrenball’ that blew the Wallabies away in the third test where the Lions were relentless and irresistible; it is rugby played with pace, power and precision. Very much like the AB’s like to play. NZ will react pragmatically to the composition of the touring party as they will expect to win whoever has been picked. The first objective of a sell-out tour has already been achieved and their sole aim from now on will be to achieve a 3-0 series win. There is no-one coming to NZ that they fear. They respect the Lions, yes, but their expectation will be for a total victory.

When it comes down to the individual selections the choice of Kruis after such a long layoff could be a gamble but he is the best line-out caller in the 6 Nations and he adds real power to the scrum.  If he is fit, Launchbury will not start in the England team as Eddie Jones has shown. It probably came down to Lawes and Launchbury, and Lawes has massively improved his ball carrying while being considerably better at the line-out and restarts than Launchbury. Moriarty deserves his place on the plane; the quality of his performances could not be denied and his versatility will be critical on a tour where injuries are bound to happen. The omission of Dylan Hartley will take up some column inches tomorrow but his performance in the 6 Nations was disappointing and at no time did he look as good as any of the three players chosen ahead of him. George Ford, Finn Russell and Ringrose will get their chances again. They are not complete players yet, prone to errors and the occasional lapse in concentration, a weakness that would be ruthlessly highlighted in NZ. The Scots could complain about such paltry representation and argue that the team’s improvement in the 6 Nations deserved more recognition but the hammering at Twickenham exposed the lack of sustainable quality and lack of depth in a developing side.

So, after all the speculation can the Lions win? The answer is yes, as Gatland has said, ‘You wouldn’t get on the plane otherwise.’

The squad is packed with excellent players, the forwards will not shy away from the confrontation and the backs have pace to burn. The half backs can all bring something to the party and the competition between Webb and Murray at scrum half could well decide how the Lions will look to play. Murray box kicks and controls well but he was hustled out of his rhythm in Edinburgh and Cardiff .Webb is a real box of tricks, a constant threat that, if he controls his enthusiasm, can turn a game in an instant. His service is fast and the turn of pace he showed against the Irish was a revelation.  The Lions can win if they can match the AB’s physically and, provided they stick to their game plan and not be drawn into playing as NZ want, then they can snuff out what the AB’s thrive upon - loose ball and control where the game is played. The Lions will have to accept that the AB’s will score tries and they will be looking to run the ball when they are confident but they can be knocked out of their stride and that will be have been the key to Gatland’s selection. He wants players that will stand up to the men in black and never give up. Only time will tell if he has chosen the right men to do this.

Lions 2017 – ‘An Irishman, Welshman, Scotsman and an Englishman turn up at Heathrow.

Lions 2017 – ‘An Irishman, Welshman, Scotsman and an Englishman turn up at Heathrow. ’

 Selecting a Lions touring party, and the test team, has been the subject of much discussion and debate for the last two years. At last we have arrived at the moment when the composition of the group is announced and already the next stages of debate and arguments have begun. This is partly down to the hard-earned, regained lustre of the ‘Brand’ following the disappointing tours of 2001 and 2005 and because, despite the appeal of the Rugby World Cup to many fans in the home countries, the British Lions remains the ultimate accolade for an international player. Gatland and his coaching team have to bring together the best players of the home nations and blend them into an international rugby team capable of beating the best team in the world in their own home and to manage this in a ridiculously short period of time. The size of the task should not be underestimated as many good international sides that have been together for several years are unable to succeed at such a demanding task.

The itinerary, described as ‘suicidal’ by Graham Henry, will take all of Gatland’s coaching abilities to get the Lions even close. They will have to perform alchemy of the highest order to create the right mix to mould a united and capable team. Gatland has a vast reservoir of experience to call upon and he will have utilised this to select the party that he feels will be good enough to beat the AB’s. Tomorrow, at last, the endless parochial media speculation can end. When national bias has to be put to one side and when the players who have earned their places can be seen as British Lions, not as English, Irish, Scots or Welsh players, and move seamlessly into a composite capable squad without losing the qualities that set them apart.

There will elation for a finite number of elite players and bitter disappointment for those who had high expectations but are not chosen and, of course, the media will be vociferous in its criticism or support depending on their own perceived interests. Gatland will not be overly concerned; he has been through it all before and has confidence in his own abilities and record and believes that the team he has chosen will do well. The majority of the players, coaching staff and supporters will trust his judgement. He was part of the rehabilitation in 2009 and he led the Lions to victory in Australia in 2013. He knows more intimately than most what it will take to win in NZ. He comprehends what a Lions tour means to the hosts and how desperately they will want to win and he will use that to forge an identity and an ethos for the 2017 Lions.

The selection will not have been arrived at easily; a great deal of rugby will have been watched, studied and analysed before conclusions have been reached. The litmus test will have been the consideration of England’s matches against Wales and Ireland, and Ireland’s performance in Cardiff. These games stood out in the 6 Nations and made and destroyed reputations. It is no easy task to select a Lions squad and everyone will have an opinion.

 

2017 British and Irish Lions

15, 14 &11: Hogg, Halfpenny, North, Williams, Daly, Nowell

12& 13: Davies, Ringrose, Henshaw, Williams

10: Farrell, Sexton, Biggar

 9: Webb, Murray, Youngs/Davies

Props: McGrath, Evans, Marler, Furlong, Cole, Francis

Hooker: Owens, Best, George

Locks: AWJ, Charteris, Kruis, Itoje, Jonny Gray, Henderson

Flanker: Warburton, Tirpuric, O’Brien, O’Mahony, Stander, Moriarty

No.8: Faletau, Billy Vunipola

 

39 man squad

 

The choice of a 39 man squad is to ensure the depth needed to cope with the inevitable injuries.

 There will be an outcry concerning the omission of several English players but in trying to second guess Gatland he will have worked out what he needs and he knows he must have players that move forward not back, ones that influence or change games and don’t wait for something to happen. Being a Lion is exceptional, a class apart, with the ability to perform at their best away from the comforts of home, and that is the difference between getting the call or not.