Sqeaky bum time at the Super 15

A testing last round of games for the top sides in the competition waits this weekend, nothing is absolutely clear with eight sides still with something to play for. As the dénouement approaches there are so many permutations possible for each team to consider that each match carries a meaning or a burden.

The Chiefs despite the loss to the Crusaders last week still have the momentum, they have only lost three games all season and can approach any contest without fear and with real confidence in their abilities both in attack and defence. But, to guarantee that precious home semi-final, and whisper it a home final they need as an absolute minimum a losing bonus point from their game with the Hurricanes. On the other side of the coin if the ‘Canes win and other results go their way then they go through to the play offs.

The organisers of the Super 15 could not have dreamt of a better finale to the season; the matches are certain to be intense, passionate and brutal affairs. If the ACT brumbies lose to Blues and the Queensland Reds, the current holders of the Super 15, can beat their hated rivals the NSW Waratahs. Then the Reds go through. How Cooper and Genia would enjoy that moment. In the South Africa conference it looks far more straightforward; the Stormers deserve their premier position in their conference and both the Bulls and the Sharks can feel reasonably sure about their chances against the Lions and the Cheetahs respectively.

If it all pans out as the bookies expect then the Chiefs and the Stormers will have earned themselves a week off, and crucially a home semi-final. The Quarter Finals will be; Act Brumbies vs. The Sharks and the other match Crusaders vs. The Bulls.

Wellington Hurricanes vs. Waikato Chiefs

The game of the weekend no doubt is the Chiefs against the Wellington Hurricanes. Fans of the Waikato Chiefs ruefully accepted their loss to the Crusaders barely finding the time to bemoan Bryce Lawrence’s dubious TMO performance they are used to their team snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Over the 17 years of the Chief’s existence they have only qualified three times for the play offs. Yet there is a sense of destiny about this campaign, they are playing enterprising winning rugby. Dave Rennie and Wayne smith have constructed an excellent team based around a strong squad. In Aaron Cruden and Sonny Bill they have two of the best attacking players in world rugby and the wily Conrad smith knows that he will have his hands full. Rennie has felt confident enough to rest several players; “We want to make sure it’s a competitive environment and there are guys scrapping for positions in the semi-final.”

The Hurricanes have won their last 6 home matches against the Chiefs but the advantage of Wellington can maybe discounted for this meeting, given that the 'Canes have only won 3 of 7 on their ground in 2012.  The ‘Canes might well want an open game, they need to score tries but the Chiefs will at first seek to subdue the Hurricane forwards first before opening up. The return of Craig Clark will ensure that the Chiefs’ lineout does not implode as it did last week and with security of possession the Chiefs will seek to squeeze the desperate Hurricanes out of the match. The Hurricanes have conceded 46 per cent of tries to opposition forwards and that will encourage the Chiefs look to keep this one tight and wait to pounce on the inevitable errors. Critically Rennie might have made significant changes but he has the stronger bench available and that could turn the tide.

The Chiefs will win the game by at least 6 points and make a statement to the other sides in the competition that they are back on track.

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