Friday 10 January 2014

Predictions Heineken Cup Round 5


Games

Racing metro92 vs. Scarlets – Scarlets by 3+

Ulster vs. Montpelier – Ulster by 10+

Exeter Chiefs vs. Glasgow Warriors – Exeter by 7+

Toulon vs. Cardiff Blues – Toulon by 7+

Connacht vs. Zebre- Connacht by 10+

*Harlequins vs. Clermont Auvergne

Treviso vs. Leicester – Leicester by 10+

Gloucester vs. Munster – Munster by 10+

Edinburgh vs. Perpignan – Edinburgh by 5-7

Ospreys vs. Northampton – Ospreys by 3-5

*Toulouse vs. Saracens

Summary

The weekend of the Heineken Cup shakedown is here, the quarter finals are so close for some and others will just be fulfilling obligations. Many of the encounters have the feel of predictability and after the turgid Top14 games of last week the French teams look tired and devoid of ideas. Toulon, the European champions lost at home, Laporte throws his toys out of the pram and the Blues can travel to Nice with a spring in their step. But, the experienced” boys of the Med”, will not take this game lightly, and the Blues without Patchell will do well to get anything out of this game. Ulster in front of a rabid Ravenhill will deal with Montpellier with room to spare, setting up a winner takes all contest at Welford Road next week. Scarlets will not be concerned by their trip to racing Metro92 and could well spring a surprise.

Munster goes to a struggling and inconsistent Gloucester targeting not just a win but a clinching bonus point. Perpignan hopes were snuffed out by the brilliant last minute Munster effort and will not be motivated going to Edinburgh and will lose. Connacht vs. Zebre is a marketing man’s nightmare and could well prove to be the worst game of the weekend, even the competition. Leicester will do a professional number on Treviso and the Italian challenge will once again disappear. Exeter Chiefs need to beat Glasgow to build up some momentum for the challenges ahead and will deal with the misfiring warriors with ease. Ospreys vs. Northampton could have been the game of the round and with the Saints’ great win in Dublin they have given themselves a chance. But, the loss of Lawes and the resurgent Ospreys will not allow the Saints to leave the Liberty with anything positive. Ospreys will throw everything at them to spoil their party; this will not be a game for the faint hearted.

*Harlequins vs. Clermont Auvergne

Clermont know that they cannot afford to lose this game, they do and they are off the top spot. Vern Cotter will be mightily relieved that he can call upon the returning pocket battleship, Morgan Parra for this game. Clermont’s injury list is vast, with many first choices unavailable. The return of the combative Cudmore will at least give some bite to a depleted Clermont pack. The defeat at the Saints was a hard to take for the ‘Quins and the injury to Evans a concern but the return of Care and a fired up Nick Easter are most welcome. The Stoop will be packed, the ground wet and sticky and Evans, if he plays knows exactly how to exploit the conditions. Damage limitation will be Clermont’s mission, a losing bonus point their prime aim. Harlequins will have too much for the men from the Massif Central but will struggle to deny them a bonus point

Prediction

 

Harlequins to win by 3-7

 

*Toulouse vs. Saracens

 

Toulouse will have been looking forward to this match, and last week’s victory over Clermont a perfect rehearsal. In the Top14 they have struggled, failing to find their renowned fluency and the loss to Connacht a bitter pill to swallow. Saracens task to get anything out of this game is the hardest of the weekend.

 

Saracens were relentless last week at Kingsholm, playing with pace and intensity that blew the Gloucester team off the park. But to win at Toulouse they will need to improve on that great effort. Toulouse might not have hit their straps yet but some day son they will and Saracens know after the humbling at Wembley what the Red and Blacks are capable of. Toulouse knows that they have to avoid defeat and with the hapless Zebre to follow, once again they will qualify.

 

Prediction

 

Toulouse to win by 10+ points

 

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