Games for the weekend 16^th-17^th September 2016

 

Scarlets v Ulster, Friday 16^th September @ Kingspan Stadium k.o.19.05

 

Scarlets have not become a bad side overnight but two lacklustre performances and subsequent defeats make the prospect of visiting an unbeaten Ulster team less than enticing. Up front the pack has, so far, failed to fire and play with the dynamism necessary to unleash the much vaunted Scarlets’ backline. The set piece lacks ballast and is too easily targeted by the opposition, leading to penalties, turn overs and loss of field positon. Injuries and illness have not helped and Pivac should not be tempted to rush these players back although playing a rampant Ulster side on Friday evening will be a severe test, particularly as it looks as Ulster will be considerably strengthened for the game with arguably the most influential player in the league to deal with in Charles Piutau.

Prop Rodney Ah You, signed from Connacht, the 27 year old tight-head prop will make his competitive home debut on Friday. Craig Gilroy is set to return to Ulster duty as well, while the side is also likely to welcome back other internationals: Andrew Trimble, Paddy Jackson and Iain Henderson are among the Ireland players who could be in contention to make their competitive season's debuts in the Kingspan Stadium clash. All three have been rested for the opening two games after being involved in Ireland's summer tour of South Africa. This will make the Scarlets’ task all the more difficult.

The Kingspan Stadium is a bear pit of a ground and the Scarlets will need to start well and try to keep the crowd quiet; never an easy task. ‘If’ the Scarlets’ forwards do manage to front up and gain some good ball there is no doubt that they possess the players to do some serious damage and maybe repeat last season’s victory. However, it’s a huge ‘If’.

 

Prediction: Ulster to win by 10 to 15 points.

 

 

Cardiff Blues v Glasgow Warriors, Friday 16^th September @ Cardiff Arms Park k.o. 19.00

 

Glasgow will arrive at the Arms Park with momentum following two bonus point victories and with Tom Seymour in devastating form on the wing, after scoring 4 tries last weekend. They will probably start as favourites. The Blues, however, have made a strong start themselves and have shown some exceptional form and this is certainly not a “gimme” for Glasgow. Cardiff’s heavy victory over a poor Edinburgh side was followed up with last week’s well-constructed win away at Munster showing that Danny Wilson’s side have matured considerably from last season. He has made some changes for the game naming Josh Turnbull and Sam Warburton to come into a reshuffled pack but placing Nick Williams on the bench, could be a tactical stroke of genius when he could come on in the last 20 minutes and create mayhem. Given the prospect of the largest crowd seen at a Pro12 league game at the Arm’s Park for some time this could be the game of the weekend.

Cardiff have a pleasing variety to their attack and in Nick Williams, a superb signing for the region, they have developed a formidable pragmatic approach to their game. When the chance to attack is on they take it but when there are hard yards necessary they now have the personnel to grunt it out. Anscombe is beginning to reveal his true potential with soft hands, excellent distribution and a howitzer boot. Plus there are the added dimensions in the backs of Willis Halaholo and Matthew Morgan, which allows the Blues to attack from deep, not to mention the menace of wingers James and Cuthbert. Glasgow will have to be on their mettle to contain these multiple threats. The Blues will be buoyed by the fact that Glasgow gave away three tries against Leinster and they can be opened up. Cardiff have under the shrewd guidance of Graham Stedman tightened up their defence and will go into this game believing they can go to the next level in terms of performance.

A Cardiff victory would be a surprise yet not an unlikely event. Glasgow will have to play very well to win.

 

Prediction: Cardiff Blues to win by 3 to 5 points.

 

 

Newport Gwent Dragons v Munster, Saturday 17^th September @ Rodney Parade k.o. 17.15

 

It appears that all is not well at Rodney Parade, with the players voicing their unhappiness at the views of their paying public and their demands that the team play with a bit more adventure and the enterprise that coach Kingsley Jones has promised. The team appear to be stuck in a rut and they have to pull themselves out of it. Losing to Ulster was not a disgrace and being pilloried for not putting the Zebre team to the sword is, in some respects, unfair. Yet to complain about your supporters is not a clever thing to do.

It needs to be remembered that the Zebre required a much improved performance themselves after their heavy defeat to the Ospreys; they are playing for their livelihoods as well. That said, the Dragons appear under powered up front, they have talented and pacey backs but they need to be given the space to perform. Overall the age of the team means they need to grow on the field and this lack of maturity can occasionally lead to errors and misjudgements.

Probably playing Munster, hurting after last week’s unexpected defeat to the Blues, would not at first sight be the ideal team for the Dragons to be playing. Yet it gives them a real chance at exoneration and presents them with a target all week in training. They have a chance to prove people wrong on Saturday and the Dragons have a track record of raising their game in adversity.

In Hallam Amos they have an excellent player and the team could be strengthened by wings Ashley Hewitt and Tom Prydie returning and, with scrum half Pretorius calling the shots, they could test Munster. It is hard, though, not to see anything but a Munster win, they simply have too many weapons and this will result in another difficult press conference for coach Kingsley Jones.

 

Prediction: Munster to win by 10 to 12 points

 

 

Ospreys v Treviso, Saturday 17^th September @ Liberty Stadium k.o. 19.35

 

On paper this looks like an easy victory for the Ospreys who have made a great start to the Pro12 with two bonus point victories. Yet they have not always found it easy against Treviso who are well coached by the experienced Kieran Crowley. But Ospreys are playing well and they are playing with confidence, power and accuracy. Sam Davies at no.10 has made an outstanding start to the season and he is really making the Ospreys hum. He links well with Webb and plays close up to the gain line bringing his partners in crime into the game at pace and on the front foot. He is a constant threat, prepared to carry the ball when needed or use his massive left boot to get the team out of trouble.

Perhaps most pleasing has been the ability of the pack to hold onto the ball for long periods to crank up the pressure. They have also employed their big ball carriers to gain the hard yards, and they have relished the task. The driving maul is another formidable weapon that they have utilised to turn pressure into points. Tirpuric has returned to his best form, running fantastic lines, supporting intelligently and making an impact whenever he becomes involved. With Webb, Davies and Evans in the backline playing with fluency and threat there is a good chance that the Ospreys could secure another bonus point win, as Treviso will find it hard to live with the pace and tempo the Ospreys will impose on them.

 

Prediction: Ospreys to win by 15 - 20 points

 

 

New Zealand v South Africa, Saturday 17^th September @ AMI Stadium, Christchurch k.o. 07.35 GMT

 

The general impression is that with the extent of the Springbok’s level of transition this should be a routine victory for the All Blacks as they have endured two consecutive losses and been dismissed by several pundits as a “shambles”. This is unfair; no SA side lacks heart, commitment or skill but it is clear that they are finding it difficult to adjust to the new regime and new rules they have to follow.

NZ are too experienced and wily to be taken in by the expectations that all they will have to do is turn up to win. On the other hand it is very difficult to see any other result rather than a comprehensive NZ victory. The win over a competitive Argentina led by the irrepressible Beauden Barrett, Ben Smith, and Julian Savea,  who enjoyed his best game of 2016, points to a side brimming with confidence and ability. The Springboks, meanwhile, barely troubled the Wallabies after scoring two early five-pointers from turnover ball; they were then left to lament some poor discipline as Australia came away with a six-point win.

SA will play with their usual vigour but NZ will overwhelm them in the last twenty minutes.

 

Prediction: NZ to win by 15 points

 

 

Australia v Argentina, Saturday 17^th September @ Perth k.o. 11.05 GMT

 

The Wallabies confront an improved Argentina on Saturday as they look to keep the winning habit after finally ending a six-match losing streak. Michael Cheika's side brought up their first win of the year after overcoming South Africa 23 -17 last week, and they will be chasing further improvement against the Pumas. But Argentina will be no pushovers in Perth. The Pumas conquered South Africa 26 - 24 last month in Salta, their first home win over the Springboks, and they also gave New Zealand problems last week before the All Blacks powered away in the final half-hour.

 

Prediction: Argentina to win by 3 - 5 points