“Those who do not learn
from history are doomed to repeat it”
This quote, by George Santayana the
Spanish philosopher, neatly sums up Wales’ last eleven matches against the
Wallabies where they have lost all of the matches narrowly and often in the
last few minutes of the game. Can they break this hold the Australian rugby
team appears to have over them? They will only do so if they manage to
successfully change their mind-set. Despite Australia’s mediocre season, which
began with a 3-0 test series loss to England, they will go into Saturday’s game
as favourites and confident of a win. Wales are seen by many pundits as simply
unable to beat teams from the southern hemisphere. They have a point; Wales’
record in the autumn is dismal with a 40% win record. If Wales are to live up
to their exhortations as potential winners of the Rugby World Cup then they
need to start on Saturday against the 2016 Wallabies with a triumph.
If the Wallabies could have chosen who
to play first on this Grand Slam tour then Cheika and his players would have
plumped for Wales. They have not tasted defeat to Wales since 2008. Australia
will expect to win and if Howley’s team are going to deny them that victory
then they will have to show that they have learnt the lessons of their history.
International sport, rugby in particular, depends on small margins to secure a
win and this is often done by optimising the mental preparation of the team.
There can be no doubt that Wales possess the players to win, and to win well,
but to accomplish their task they will need to establish a psychological as
well as physical dominance over the Wallabies. The recent heart breaking
defeats should be utilised to show what needs to be done differently. Seeing chances with clarity, is one thing,
taking them clinically is another, retaining composure in the eye of the storm
will be what makes the crucial difference.
On Saturday, in what will be a
cauldron of pressure and expectation, the side that will emerge victorious will
be the one that makes and executes the correct choices precisely and allows
them to exert some control over the way that decisions are made at the critical
moments. The coaches will then know if the essential realistic pressure they
put the players under in the pre-match training sessions has paid dividends.
The pundit Martyn Williams spoke of Wales not getting up to speed until the 3rd
or 4th game of the autumn international series; this sounds like an
excuse not worthy of international players. It also begs the question why has
the WRU agreed to play a Tier 1 nation first up? Why not invite Georgia to play
if Wales can’t raise their game from the off? Perhaps more pertinently what
does it say about the quality of the Pro12 league or the training the players
do in camp before the first game? Clearly Wales will have to overcome this handicap
as well as whatever the Wallabies will throw at them.
Without their talismanic captain, Sam
Warburton, the more experienced players will need to stand up and be counted
and give a clear focus and lead on the pitch, show what they have learnt and
embrace the responsibility. As Michael Cheika nurses his shattered shoulder he
will still have been scheming and plotting as to how he can secure a Wallabies
win. Much of his approach will come from his familiarity with this Welsh side
and how they will play and that will give confidence to him, his players and coaches.
But if Howley has learnt from the recent tour to NZ then he could surprise
these Wallabies by having the self-assurance to allow the players to work out
how to win this match. Cheika has circled the waggons, piqued by what he has
translated as the “disrespect” his players have been shown and they will play
to a rugged intense game plan attempting to manhandle the Welsh forwards and
create space for his back row to thrive. If, though, Wales resolve to play a
smarter game and show that they have developed a style of play which attacks
with skill and pace and takes chances, rather than seeking the safety-first
option, then they could shock the Wallabies who could well be guilty of
complacency from their own analysis of the recent history between the two
sides.
Eddie Jones, whose Midas touch with
the England side could be under severe threat over the coming weeks as he deals
with a crippling injury list, has already talked about getting the psychology
right for the SA match and Howley needs to have spent as much time as he can on
getting the players’ minds right for the challenge on the 5th November as
working with the ball. Training will have been intense but will it have been
representative? Will players have been asked to perform their skills and
decision making when they are at their most fatigued? No one doubts the players’
levels of motivation. Matches though are not won by desire alone but by the
players who keep their heads and seize their chances. Howley and his coaching
team have to have empowered the players to play what they see in front of them
and back themselves to be able to think clearly and correctly under pressure,
executing the skills they possess and doing the simple things well and ensure
that they prepared for the unexpected and can respond appropriately.
For Howley to be realistic in his aspirations
to become Gatland’s successor then this is his best opportunity to show how
Wales can be different and successful under his generalship.
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