Can Wales finally beat the Wallabies?

Can Wales finally beat the Wallabies?

 

Wales v Australia 5th November 2016 k.o. 2.30pm

 

 

     Saturday 5th November will be a day of reckoning for Wales. It could be the start of a new era building upon the flickers of improvement and ambition glimpsed in New Zealand or will the team fall back to the formula of the 6N that has brought success in that championship but patently failed against the Southern Hemisphere teams. What makes this test match so intriguing is the sense that the Wallabies are perceived as being not up to their usual high standards. Their recent defeats in 6 out of 9 matches does not tell the whole story; they were competitive in every match they played, performing with grit and edge but lacked the fluency of old. Despite their protestations there is an air of vulnerability around them.

For Wales to win they must dominate these Wallabies from the first whistle, not take a backward step and ensure that everyone in the team does the basics well. Despite the injuries and enforced absences Wales can field a settled and experienced side. But, this is a double edged sword, it means that the Wallabies know what to expect and they will be confident that they can contain Wales. If the Wales’ front 5 can establish a hold over the Australian pack and deny space to their back row then the carrying power of Owens, Davies, Charteris and Moriaty will allow the in-form Tirpuric to weave his magic and with the irrepressible Webb, Wales will surely prosper. On the other hand Cheika has the judgement to ensure that the Australian forwards will front up and they will attempt to bully and manhandle the Welsh pack. They possess a strong scrummaging front row under the tutelage of ex-Argentine hooker Mario Ledesma, Scott Sio, Stephen Moore and Sekope Kepu and are unlikely to come off second best against their Welsh counterparts. The Wallabies have also unearthed a core of very big men in the back five who can all run, jump and tackle: 6’10 120kgs Rory Arnold, 6’8 122kgs Adam Coleman and 6’4 123kgs no.8 Lopeti Timani. They have the makings of a pack to be reckoned with. The selection of Pocock at 6 is not a gamble even though he has not played international rugby in that position; he is a world class player and will not let his country down. They will be all knees, elbows and feet at the breakdown and the contest there will not be for the faint hearted and referee Craig Joubert will have a crucial role. With Halfpenny returning for Wales Australia know that they will have to keep their penalty count down or they will see Wales keeping the scoreboard ticking over.

Nick Evans in last week’s Sunday Times talked about preferring a ball carrying 12 outside him and in Jamie Roberts Wales possess one of the best in the world. Last season was not, however, one of his best and Howley needs to have planned how Wales should use him to the side’s best advantage; as a decoy, perhaps, even allowing him to pass but critically whoever is selected to play at 10 must play on the gainline to speed up the game and give Roberts the chance to burst through. Biggar is to start, but the prospect of the exciting Sam Davies coming off the bench could see Wales play a far faster game. Davies loves to play in the heavy traffic and will bring players on to his flat pass at speed and utilising Roberts and Davies who, always a threat, should test the Wallabies’ resolve by attacking the wider channels and examine the defensive quality of the Australian midfield. On the wings Wales have a clear edge and if North and Cuthbert get some space they will score tries.

The absence of AWJ will be sorely felt but in Charteris Wales have an excellent battle hardened second row to come in and the set piece and ball carrying of the Welsh forwards will not have been weakened in the slightest. Australia have not become a bad side overnight and this promises to be a fantastic contest, they have good players throughout the team; Folau, Hooper and Pocock would grace any side. Any side that has Israel Folau in it will run hard, just ask the coach! They will not lack the incentive to win the game; having already announced that their ambition is to achieve a Grand Slam, to lose the first game would certainly put a dint in that target.

Despite the loss of influential players Wales still have the personnel with which to win this test match and to do so in a manner that could take the rugby world by surprise. The return of Halfpenny, the Howley factor freed from Gatland’s pragmatism and the prospect for the Welsh players of putting down an early marker for the Lions will all help. Wales need to move on from NZ and show that they now have the ‘All Court’ game to beat any team, playing at pace and showing they too can be relentless and maintain a high tempo and, if needed, go up a gear to put sides away by clinically taking any of the opportunities on offer.

But the real motivation for these Welsh players is to lose the unwelcome epithet of being constantly seen as ‘the nearly men’.

 

Prediction: Wales to win by 3 - 10 points