“Expectation is at the root of all heartache”-
Shakespeare/Welsh rugby supporter
On Saturday Wales and South Africa will face
each other in the midst of a media frenzy of disappointment and scathing
criticism. The quality of rugby played by them during the autumn internationals
has been so uninspiring it has been seen as symptomatic of the terminal decline
of Welsh and South African rugby. Allister Coetzee the coach of SA is fighting
for his job and has promised to beat Wales ‘at all costs’ and Howley of Wales
is desperately seeking the credibility to prove that he is the anointed
successor of Gatland.
For Wales there is a sense that the country
is being left behind, that the rugby they are playing has had its day. The
statistics support the notion that since 2013 Wales has been enduring a slow
but steady decline. Many of the players have not changed since 2011; although
hugely experienced, they do not look capable of bringing anything new to their
game. Yet, in Liam Williams, George North, Scott Williams and Gareth Davies,
Wales possess some of the best runners and finishers in world rugby but they
are failing to live up to the expectations of supporters. Wales will play in
the familiar surroundings of the Principality stadium and that should be a
bubbling cauldron of national ferocity and desire against a SA low on
confidence and morale, but tragically most Welsh supporters expect a loss. Yes,
SA will be desperate to win, to salvage some pride from what is shaping up to
be their most disastrous tour ever. Luckily SA are a side as easy as Wales have
apparently become to work out, as Nick Mallet, ex SA coach and now pundit said
on Saturday, ‘Springbok attacks are too simplistic, all you need to stop them
is to be brave. Match the Bok physicality and there is not much left.’ Despite
this it has to be noted that Wales have faced SA 31 times and won only twice. This
will, and should, reinforce the Springbok’s belief that they can win this
match. But
if Wales can match their famed physicality, and what they have failed to show
so far in the autumn is not courage or commitment rather composure and
assuredness under pressure, the ability to run into space rather than the
opposition then this a match Wales certainly have the talent to win.
However tempting it is for Howley and his coterie
of coaches to circle the wagons they must not. Success for Wales will come from
taking heart from the positive approach shown by both Scotland and Ireland, who
have rattled sides by their willingness to attack at pace and in numbers. There
are many aspects of Wales’ recent play that has been disappointing, the
forwards have lacked devil, have not carried well and exhibited poor awareness
at the breakdown in creating the quick ball with which the backs need to
attack. Japan and Australia exposed this naivety and lack of organisation
repeatedly and ruthlessly. SA will be just as much of a challenge. There is so
much riding on this game for both sides and the winner that will emerge will be
the one that maintains the high quality of their play under pressure and
clinically takes their chances. What Wales will need to do is to avoid the
inevitable brutal collisions that the Springboks will be desperate for and look
to finesse their way through a crowded midfield into the spaces beyond the
gainline.
SA shorn of many of its stars, including the
totemic Eben Etzebeth, will find it difficult to change from their traditional confrontational
approach and this should allow Howley to work out a game plan to circumvent it.
On Saturday Howley and several of the players need to stand up and be counted
and show the type of side Wales can be under his tutelage. When he announces
his selection for the match it should show what he believes the team could do
and show that it is really his team. If he decides to stick with the tried and
tested expectations will be low. But if he is brave and selects the mercurial
Sam Davies at 10, Scott Williams and a back row of Moriaty, Faletau, Tirpuric
and with Warburton to come off the bench then expectations will rise and so crucially
will the risks but more significantly so will the chance of high rewards.
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