Rugby coach the testing time, end of season run in.

Who’d be a Rugby Coach?

 

Given the ridiculous opprobrium heaped on Warren Gatland when he revealed the British and Irish Lions squad last week it does beg the question, ‘Who would want to be a rugby coach’, particularly at the pinnacle of the game. Sackings, political chicanery and leaving before being pushed are now part and parcel of the game. Certainly the financial recompense would be an inducement but the lack of job security, stress and public criticism has to be a consideration. Although, thankfully, no coach has talked about it being ‘his project’, it is clear that they all crave the chance to have sufficient time to be allowed to make a difference. But, the caveat appears to be that time is definitely finite and last season’s performance counts for very little if there isn’t a significant improvement, and do not rely on your contract.

Rugby coaches used to be developed from within clubs, learning their trade with the lower sides before being entrusted with the 1stXV. This was certainly the route to the top taken by the excellent Rob Baxter at Exeter Chiefs, but how many clubs are following that example? Around the game there now appears to be that a new coach is needed as soon as performance dips below expectations. These expectations might not be those of the supporters but more often than not the owners, benefactors or shareholders that decide that they have no choice, they simply have to react. The panacea appears to be to employ a coach from the all-conquering Southern Hemisphere and watch them magically weave a winning side. This has heralded the arrival of the ‘Super coach’, paid a huge salary, access to a large playing budget and the demand that training facilities are upgraded. Then there are the layers of specialist coaches; attack, defence, scrum, lineout and even an ‘exit’ coach and that is before the need for a Sports Science department and medical staff. Naturally for all that outlay investors are going to want to see a return. Coaches stand or fall based on the quality of their results, Mike Ford for one has suffered from that over the last year. Leicester, Bristol and Gloucester in the AVIVA have all made changes mid-season in their coaching staff in a desperate bid to improve results. Not all these situations were handled with the skill and empathy that the game likes to think it has. The Pro12 has seen two coaches move on so far this season at Edinburgh and Zebre. Other clubs, regions and provinces will wait and take stock at the end of the season when explanations for underachievement will be sought.

Rugby clubs are expensive to run and it is very rare to be able to turn a profit but the intertwining of money and sport is now an unwelcome but established fact. Success should not be down to money alone but across all of the European leagues it all too often does. For a long time Rugby has prided itself as very different to soccer. But, now it is much harder to see any difference; foreign players and coaches are omnipresent, vast TV deals for the Top14 and the AVIVA mean that they have moved ahead of most of the teams in the Pro12 and the game is now very much a business. Supporters can hark back to the good old days but if any club/region/province wants to do more than survive then investment will be needed.

This means that a rugby coach’s job security at the top level is not watertight. In Wales as the Pro12 season shudders to a climax the coaches and players of the Ospreys, Scarlets and the Blues all have something to play for both on and off the field. They will know that if things do not go well questions will be asked. In so many respects this is unfair when you consider the resources they are up against, and then case for investment in the regions becomes ever more urgent. The pressure is constant, relentless and all the coaches deserve to be given a break, some level of understanding but results will need to go their way.

By far the man with the hardest task is Kingsley Jones, at Newport Gwent Dragons as he takes what must be a deflated team to Edinburgh. He will be well aware of how uncertainty saps at the morale of a squad and with all of the speculation circling Rodney Parade it will extremely difficult to motivate the players in Scotland. On the other hand they know that they are playing for their futures wherever that may lie. Danny Wilson must be desperate to ensure that the Blues get 5 points against the hapless Zebre, to maintain the form they displayed in crushing the Ospreys and at last showing some much needed consistency. The team can still challenge for 6^th place in the table but realistically it’s more important to have some good form going into the Champions Cup playoffs. Pivac at the Scarlets has a formidable task in taking his team to Connacht. They will be emotionally up for this game, Pat Lam’s last home game in charge of the team and with their own European future to consider. But, the Scarlets despite the loss of the totemic James Davies at 7 will be confident of being able to do a job, and make it even harder for the Ospreys when they come to Parc y Scarlets next Saturday. Steve Tandy undoubtedly faces a severe examination of his coaching credentials as they face an Ulster team who will most definitely fancy their chances. Ospreys’ loss of form and meek surrender to the Blues will have been taxing Tandy and his team for the last two weeks as a season that carried the promise of glory has proven to be illusory. He must be hoping that on Saturday the Ospreys rediscover their confidence and abilities in an effort to seek redemption for the series of damaging defeats that team has endured. If they do not, and lose, the match the following week at the Scarlets becomes one, defining the team.

Futures might well be decided over the coming week, all coaches know that their tenure can come to an end following a run of bad results and they also know the frustration of once the whistle goes they can do very little to influence the outcome. It does make you wonder who’d be a Rugby Coach.

 

 

Hughes's Hunch Prediction European Cup Semi Final

April 22^nd 2017

 

European Championship Semi-Final

 

Munster vs Saracens at the AVIVA stadium Dublin

 

The potential for an European classic match is obvious, and often we are left disappointed but such is the form of both these sides the likelihood of this being a game to live up to the occasion is excellent.

 

As current European champions, Saracens will be arriving at the AVIVA stadium bristling with confidence and determined to defend their title. Against them stands the proud province of Munster, with its celebrated ‘Red Army’ of supporters, equally determined to deny them victory.

 

Galvanised by the sudden sad death of their coach Alex Foley Munster have had a magnificent season and play with passion and precision under the tutelage of 'Rassie' Erasmus the side’s Director of Rugby. He has produced a team capable of upsetting the Saracens. Munster couple a never say die attitude with the ability to mix their game up between the forwards and backs, grunting up the middle and throwing it wide when needed. Their driving maul to the purist is a thing of beauty, and Saracens will have to maintain their discipline. In Simon Zebo and CJ Stander they have players that when on song can change a game in an instant, and they are both enjoying a run of good form at present. But, the likely absence of Scrum Half Murray will hurt them and although Saracens have constantly said that they expect him to play Munster have prepared all week without him. Peter O’Mahony will lead his team and pack with his customary ferocity and his line out duel with Kruis and Itoje could well settle the game. His performance against Itoje in the 6 Nations will fill him with confidence.

 

On song as the Saracens were against the Glasgow Warriors they can be irresistible playing with a relentless verve that most sides struggle to live with never mind contain. With 6 British and Irish Lions in the side they will be brimming with confidence. The Vunipola brothers and Jamie George means that the defence of Munster will be sorely tested and out wide the likes of Ashton and Maitland running their usual sweet lines of support requires the Munster back row to be everywhere because the attacks will keep coming. If that was not enough, the Munster team will have to think about how to contain Farrell and Wrigglesworth who are two of the best game managers currently playing and they will do their best to boss the Munster team around.

 

It will be a close game and the side that not only takes their opportunities but holds their nerve will emerge victorious. There is a good chance that it will come down to goal-kicking and it is here through the imperious Farrell that Saracens possess the crucial difference.

 

 

Prediction

 

The heart would love Munster to win, they have been to a dark place this season, and have responded magnificently, but the head says that the Saracens will win by 3-6 points.

British and Irish Lions 2017- ‘Selection is always subjective’

British and Irish Lions 2017

 

‘Selection is always subjective’

 

After the smoke and mirrors, rumours and innuendo of the last 24 hours, the British and Irish Lions touring party has been announced at last and the speculation can end. The strength of interest in the Lions has been amply shown by the meltdown on social media that the announcement caused. Gatland and his coaching team have partly shown their hand but, until the group arrive in NZ intact, how they will play is not certain. The chosen team members now have to get through some of their most challenging games of the season with the various cup finals and league finales ahead. Everyone concerned will be crossing their fingers over the coming weeks that they emerge unscathed.

The appointment of Sam Warburton had been well trailed and, in most areas, welcomed. In Australia 2013, Warburton cut an impressive figure handicapping any attempts a hostile Australian media made to get the Australian public to turn on the tourists. The rabid NZ media will, no doubt, try their best to rattle him and the group but Warburton is a fine player and quality human being. Indeed, to most NZ parents he would their ideal choice as son-in-law, only just behind Richie Macaw. More pertinently, his form in the 6 Nations makes him a certain pick for the test side either at 6 or 7 and this versatility will augment the Lions test side. Becoming a Lions captain for a second time does not yet elevate Warburton to greatness, that is decided at the end of a career, but it is a supreme accolade and one that he is superbly equipped to succeed at again.

Much will be made over the omission of several players, Dylan Harley, Jamie Heaslip and several Scots are obvious but selection is not objective, it is a subjective exercise, and, inevitably, not everyone will agree. Gatland knows this and he will be judged by how his team plays. Players who have been left out should not be too aggrieved; Lions selection is not a right and it is certainly not based simply on your team’s performance. It is down to the qualities and playing skills of the individual player, how he will fit into the strategy and how will he react to being one of many superb players. Personality and a  positive supportive attitude will be vital; to be considered as elite means that a player has to be special, one that makes things happen rather than living off the efforts of his team mates and knows that the hard work starts now. Being selected is not enough to make you a Lion.

The selection does not show how the Lions will play; there are so many gifted players at Gatland’s disposal that he can choose his approach from a position of strength. The media will talk about ‘Warrenball’ as if it is a negative, on the other hand, what if it wins the series? It was ‘Warrenball’ that blew the Wallabies away in the third test where the Lions were relentless and irresistible; it is rugby played with pace, power and precision. Very much like the AB’s like to play. NZ will react pragmatically to the composition of the touring party as they will expect to win whoever has been picked. The first objective of a sell-out tour has already been achieved and their sole aim from now on will be to achieve a 3-0 series win. There is no-one coming to NZ that they fear. They respect the Lions, yes, but their expectation will be for a total victory.

When it comes down to the individual selections the choice of Kruis after such a long layoff could be a gamble but he is the best line-out caller in the 6 Nations and he adds real power to the scrum.  If he is fit, Launchbury will not start in the England team as Eddie Jones has shown. It probably came down to Lawes and Launchbury, and Lawes has massively improved his ball carrying while being considerably better at the line-out and restarts than Launchbury. Moriarty deserves his place on the plane; the quality of his performances could not be denied and his versatility will be critical on a tour where injuries are bound to happen. The omission of Dylan Hartley will take up some column inches tomorrow but his performance in the 6 Nations was disappointing and at no time did he look as good as any of the three players chosen ahead of him. George Ford, Finn Russell and Ringrose will get their chances again. They are not complete players yet, prone to errors and the occasional lapse in concentration, a weakness that would be ruthlessly highlighted in NZ. The Scots could complain about such paltry representation and argue that the team’s improvement in the 6 Nations deserved more recognition but the hammering at Twickenham exposed the lack of sustainable quality and lack of depth in a developing side.

So, after all the speculation can the Lions win? The answer is yes, as Gatland has said, ‘You wouldn’t get on the plane otherwise.’

The squad is packed with excellent players, the forwards will not shy away from the confrontation and the backs have pace to burn. The half backs can all bring something to the party and the competition between Webb and Murray at scrum half could well decide how the Lions will look to play. Murray box kicks and controls well but he was hustled out of his rhythm in Edinburgh and Cardiff .Webb is a real box of tricks, a constant threat that, if he controls his enthusiasm, can turn a game in an instant. His service is fast and the turn of pace he showed against the Irish was a revelation.  The Lions can win if they can match the AB’s physically and, provided they stick to their game plan and not be drawn into playing as NZ want, then they can snuff out what the AB’s thrive upon - loose ball and control where the game is played. The Lions will have to accept that the AB’s will score tries and they will be looking to run the ball when they are confident but they can be knocked out of their stride and that will be have been the key to Gatland’s selection. He wants players that will stand up to the men in black and never give up. Only time will tell if he has chosen the right men to do this.

Lions 2017 – ‘An Irishman, Welshman, Scotsman and an Englishman turn up at Heathrow.

Lions 2017 – ‘An Irishman, Welshman, Scotsman and an Englishman turn up at Heathrow. ’

 Selecting a Lions touring party, and the test team, has been the subject of much discussion and debate for the last two years. At last we have arrived at the moment when the composition of the group is announced and already the next stages of debate and arguments have begun. This is partly down to the hard-earned, regained lustre of the ‘Brand’ following the disappointing tours of 2001 and 2005 and because, despite the appeal of the Rugby World Cup to many fans in the home countries, the British Lions remains the ultimate accolade for an international player. Gatland and his coaching team have to bring together the best players of the home nations and blend them into an international rugby team capable of beating the best team in the world in their own home and to manage this in a ridiculously short period of time. The size of the task should not be underestimated as many good international sides that have been together for several years are unable to succeed at such a demanding task.

The itinerary, described as ‘suicidal’ by Graham Henry, will take all of Gatland’s coaching abilities to get the Lions even close. They will have to perform alchemy of the highest order to create the right mix to mould a united and capable team. Gatland has a vast reservoir of experience to call upon and he will have utilised this to select the party that he feels will be good enough to beat the AB’s. Tomorrow, at last, the endless parochial media speculation can end. When national bias has to be put to one side and when the players who have earned their places can be seen as British Lions, not as English, Irish, Scots or Welsh players, and move seamlessly into a composite capable squad without losing the qualities that set them apart.

There will elation for a finite number of elite players and bitter disappointment for those who had high expectations but are not chosen and, of course, the media will be vociferous in its criticism or support depending on their own perceived interests. Gatland will not be overly concerned; he has been through it all before and has confidence in his own abilities and record and believes that the team he has chosen will do well. The majority of the players, coaching staff and supporters will trust his judgement. He was part of the rehabilitation in 2009 and he led the Lions to victory in Australia in 2013. He knows more intimately than most what it will take to win in NZ. He comprehends what a Lions tour means to the hosts and how desperately they will want to win and he will use that to forge an identity and an ethos for the 2017 Lions.

The selection will not have been arrived at easily; a great deal of rugby will have been watched, studied and analysed before conclusions have been reached. The litmus test will have been the consideration of England’s matches against Wales and Ireland, and Ireland’s performance in Cardiff. These games stood out in the 6 Nations and made and destroyed reputations. It is no easy task to select a Lions squad and everyone will have an opinion.

 

2017 British and Irish Lions

15, 14 &11: Hogg, Halfpenny, North, Williams, Daly, Nowell

12& 13: Davies, Ringrose, Henshaw, Williams

10: Farrell, Sexton, Biggar

 9: Webb, Murray, Youngs/Davies

Props: McGrath, Evans, Marler, Furlong, Cole, Francis

Hooker: Owens, Best, George

Locks: AWJ, Charteris, Kruis, Itoje, Jonny Gray, Henderson

Flanker: Warburton, Tirpuric, O’Brien, O’Mahony, Stander, Moriarty

No.8: Faletau, Billy Vunipola

 

39 man squad

 

The choice of a 39 man squad is to ensure the depth needed to cope with the inevitable injuries.

 There will be an outcry concerning the omission of several English players but in trying to second guess Gatland he will have worked out what he needs and he knows he must have players that move forward not back, ones that influence or change games and don’t wait for something to happen. Being a Lion is exceptional, a class apart, with the ability to perform at their best away from the comforts of home, and that is the difference between getting the call or not.

 

 

Wales has to manage expectations

 

 

“Expectation is at the root of all heartache”- Shakespeare/Welsh rugby supporter

 

On Saturday Wales and South Africa will face each other in the midst of a media frenzy of disappointment and scathing criticism. The quality of rugby played by them during the autumn internationals has been so uninspiring it has been seen as symptomatic of the terminal decline of Welsh and South African rugby. Allister Coetzee the coach of SA is fighting for his job and has promised to beat Wales ‘at all costs’ and Howley of Wales is desperately seeking the credibility to prove that he is the anointed successor of Gatland.

For Wales there is a sense that the country is being left behind, that the rugby they are playing has had its day. The statistics support the notion that since 2013 Wales has been enduring a slow but steady decline. Many of the players have not changed since 2011; although hugely experienced, they do not look capable of bringing anything new to their game. Yet, in Liam Williams, George North, Scott Williams and Gareth Davies, Wales possess some of the best runners and finishers in world rugby but they are failing to live up to the expectations of supporters. Wales will play in the familiar surroundings of the Principality stadium and that should be a bubbling cauldron of national ferocity and desire against a SA low on confidence and morale, but tragically most Welsh supporters expect a loss. Yes, SA will be desperate to win, to salvage some pride from what is shaping up to be their most disastrous tour ever. Luckily SA are a side as easy as Wales have apparently become to work out, as Nick Mallet, ex SA coach and now pundit said on Saturday, ‘Springbok attacks are too simplistic, all you need to stop them is to be brave. Match the Bok physicality and there is not much left.’ Despite this it has to be noted that Wales have faced SA 31 times and won only twice. This will, and should, reinforce the Springbok’s belief that they can win this match. But if Wales can match their famed physicality, and what they have failed to show so far in the autumn is not courage or commitment rather composure and assuredness under pressure, the ability to run into space rather than the opposition then this a match Wales certainly have the talent to win.

 However tempting it is for Howley and his coterie of coaches to circle the wagons they must not. Success for Wales will come from taking heart from the positive approach shown by both Scotland and Ireland, who have rattled sides by their willingness to attack at pace and in numbers. There are many aspects of Wales’ recent play that has been disappointing, the forwards have lacked devil, have not carried well and exhibited poor awareness at the breakdown in creating the quick ball with which the backs need to attack. Japan and Australia exposed this naivety and lack of organisation repeatedly and ruthlessly. SA will be just as much of a challenge. There is so much riding on this game for both sides and the winner that will emerge will be the one that maintains the high quality of their play under pressure and clinically takes their chances. What Wales will need to do is to avoid the inevitable brutal collisions that the Springboks will be desperate for and look to finesse their way through a crowded midfield into the spaces beyond the gainline.

SA shorn of many of its stars, including the totemic Eben Etzebeth, will find it difficult to change from their traditional confrontational approach and this should allow Howley to work out a game plan to circumvent it. On Saturday Howley and several of the players need to stand up and be counted and show the type of side Wales can be under his tutelage. When he announces his selection for the match it should show what he believes the team could do and show that it is really his team. If he decides to stick with the tried and tested expectations will be low. But if he is brave and selects the mercurial Sam Davies at 10, Scott Williams and a back row of Moriaty, Faletau, Tirpuric and with Warburton to come off the bench then expectations will rise and so crucially will the risks but more significantly so will the chance of high rewards.

 

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Can Wales finally beat the Wallabies?

Can Wales finally beat the Wallabies?

 

Wales v Australia 5th November 2016 k.o. 2.30pm

 

 

     Saturday 5th November will be a day of reckoning for Wales. It could be the start of a new era building upon the flickers of improvement and ambition glimpsed in New Zealand or will the team fall back to the formula of the 6N that has brought success in that championship but patently failed against the Southern Hemisphere teams. What makes this test match so intriguing is the sense that the Wallabies are perceived as being not up to their usual high standards. Their recent defeats in 6 out of 9 matches does not tell the whole story; they were competitive in every match they played, performing with grit and edge but lacked the fluency of old. Despite their protestations there is an air of vulnerability around them.

For Wales to win they must dominate these Wallabies from the first whistle, not take a backward step and ensure that everyone in the team does the basics well. Despite the injuries and enforced absences Wales can field a settled and experienced side. But, this is a double edged sword, it means that the Wallabies know what to expect and they will be confident that they can contain Wales. If the Wales’ front 5 can establish a hold over the Australian pack and deny space to their back row then the carrying power of Owens, Davies, Charteris and Moriaty will allow the in-form Tirpuric to weave his magic and with the irrepressible Webb, Wales will surely prosper. On the other hand Cheika has the judgement to ensure that the Australian forwards will front up and they will attempt to bully and manhandle the Welsh pack. They possess a strong scrummaging front row under the tutelage of ex-Argentine hooker Mario Ledesma, Scott Sio, Stephen Moore and Sekope Kepu and are unlikely to come off second best against their Welsh counterparts. The Wallabies have also unearthed a core of very big men in the back five who can all run, jump and tackle: 6’10 120kgs Rory Arnold, 6’8 122kgs Adam Coleman and 6’4 123kgs no.8 Lopeti Timani. They have the makings of a pack to be reckoned with. The selection of Pocock at 6 is not a gamble even though he has not played international rugby in that position; he is a world class player and will not let his country down. They will be all knees, elbows and feet at the breakdown and the contest there will not be for the faint hearted and referee Craig Joubert will have a crucial role. With Halfpenny returning for Wales Australia know that they will have to keep their penalty count down or they will see Wales keeping the scoreboard ticking over.

Nick Evans in last week’s Sunday Times talked about preferring a ball carrying 12 outside him and in Jamie Roberts Wales possess one of the best in the world. Last season was not, however, one of his best and Howley needs to have planned how Wales should use him to the side’s best advantage; as a decoy, perhaps, even allowing him to pass but critically whoever is selected to play at 10 must play on the gainline to speed up the game and give Roberts the chance to burst through. Biggar is to start, but the prospect of the exciting Sam Davies coming off the bench could see Wales play a far faster game. Davies loves to play in the heavy traffic and will bring players on to his flat pass at speed and utilising Roberts and Davies who, always a threat, should test the Wallabies’ resolve by attacking the wider channels and examine the defensive quality of the Australian midfield. On the wings Wales have a clear edge and if North and Cuthbert get some space they will score tries.

The absence of AWJ will be sorely felt but in Charteris Wales have an excellent battle hardened second row to come in and the set piece and ball carrying of the Welsh forwards will not have been weakened in the slightest. Australia have not become a bad side overnight and this promises to be a fantastic contest, they have good players throughout the team; Folau, Hooper and Pocock would grace any side. Any side that has Israel Folau in it will run hard, just ask the coach! They will not lack the incentive to win the game; having already announced that their ambition is to achieve a Grand Slam, to lose the first game would certainly put a dint in that target.

Despite the loss of influential players Wales still have the personnel with which to win this test match and to do so in a manner that could take the rugby world by surprise. The return of Halfpenny, the Howley factor freed from Gatland’s pragmatism and the prospect for the Welsh players of putting down an early marker for the Lions will all help. Wales need to move on from NZ and show that they now have the ‘All Court’ game to beat any team, playing at pace and showing they too can be relentless and maintain a high tempo and, if needed, go up a gear to put sides away by clinically taking any of the opportunities on offer.

But the real motivation for these Welsh players is to lose the unwelcome epithet of being constantly seen as ‘the nearly men’.

 

Prediction: Wales to win by 3 - 10 points

 

 

Wales v Australia

“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it”

 

This quote, by George Santayana the Spanish philosopher, neatly sums up Wales’ last eleven matches against the Wallabies where they have lost all of the matches narrowly and often in the last few minutes of the game. Can they break this hold the Australian rugby team appears to have over them? They will only do so if they manage to successfully change their mind-set. Despite Australia’s mediocre season, which began with a 3-0 test series loss to England, they will go into Saturday’s game as favourites and confident of a win. Wales are seen by many pundits as simply unable to beat teams from the southern hemisphere. They have a point; Wales’ record in the autumn is dismal with a 40% win record. If Wales are to live up to their exhortations as potential winners of the Rugby World Cup then they need to start on Saturday against the 2016 Wallabies with a triumph.

If the Wallabies could have chosen who to play first on this Grand Slam tour then Cheika and his players would have plumped for Wales. They have not tasted defeat to Wales since 2008. Australia will expect to win and if Howley’s team are going to deny them that victory then they will have to show that they have learnt the lessons of their history. International sport, rugby in particular, depends on small margins to secure a win and this is often done by optimising the mental preparation of the team. There can be no doubt that Wales possess the players to win, and to win well, but to accomplish their task they will need to establish a psychological as well as physical dominance over the Wallabies. The recent heart breaking defeats should be utilised to show what needs to be done differently.  Seeing chances with clarity, is one thing, taking them clinically is another, retaining composure in the eye of the storm will be what makes the crucial difference.

On Saturday, in what will be a cauldron of pressure and expectation, the side that will emerge victorious will be the one that makes and executes the correct choices precisely and allows them to exert some control over the way that decisions are made at the critical moments. The coaches will then know if the essential realistic pressure they put the players under in the pre-match training sessions has paid dividends. The pundit Martyn Williams spoke of Wales not getting up to speed until the 3^rd or 4^th game of the autumn international series; this sounds like an excuse not worthy of international players. It also begs the question why has the WRU agreed to play a Tier 1 nation first up? Why not invite Georgia to play if Wales can’t raise their game from the off? Perhaps more pertinently what does it say about the quality of the Pro12 league or the training the players do in camp before the first game? Clearly Wales will have to overcome this handicap as well as whatever the Wallabies will throw at them.

Without their talismanic captain, Sam Warburton, the more experienced players will need to stand up and be counted and give a clear focus and lead on the pitch, show what they have learnt and embrace the responsibility. As Michael Cheika nurses his shattered shoulder he will still have been scheming and plotting as to how he can secure a Wallabies win. Much of his approach will come from his familiarity with this Welsh side and how they will play and that will give confidence to him, his players and coaches. But if Howley has learnt from the recent tour to NZ then he could surprise these Wallabies by having the self-assurance to allow the players to work out how to win this match. Cheika has circled the waggons, piqued by what he has translated as the “disrespect” his players have been shown and they will play to a rugged intense game plan attempting to manhandle the Welsh forwards and create space for his back row to thrive. If, though, Wales resolve to play a smarter game and show that they have developed a style of play which attacks with skill and pace and takes chances, rather than seeking the safety-first option, then they could shock the Wallabies who could well be guilty of complacency from their own analysis of the recent history between the two sides.

Eddie Jones, whose Midas touch with the England side could be under severe threat over the coming weeks as he deals with a crippling injury list, has already talked about getting the psychology right for the SA match and Howley needs to have spent as much time as he can on getting the players’ minds right for the challenge on the 5th November as working with the ball. Training will have been intense but will it have been representative? Will players have been asked to perform their skills and decision making when they are at their most fatigued? No one doubts the players’ levels of motivation. Matches though are not won by desire alone but by the players who keep their heads and seize their chances. Howley and his coaching team have to have empowered the players to play what they see in front of them and back themselves to be able to think clearly and correctly under pressure, executing the skills they possess and doing the simple things well and ensure that they prepared for the unexpected and can respond appropriately.

 For Howley to be realistic in his aspirations to become Gatland’s successor then this is his best opportunity to show how Wales can be different and successful under his generalship.